Yes, they totally did. The idea that the Spanish were dramatically outnumbered is just some old myth that gets repeated over and over until everyone who doesn't look closely believes it.
Even American Natives
- Thread starter Zorqal
- Start date
You could also very well have Cortez fall overboard on the crossing from Cozumel to the mainland and drown. A rather anticlimactic end to their daring expedition. 
I'll put it this way. The initial contact, in almost any scenario, is going to have apocalyptic aspects.
And it is very unlikely Europe won't exploit the situation.
From there, however, if you have the groups that OTL resisted the longest on a level where they can do that even better than OTL you can get bits and pieces of "pre European societies" coming back.
Look at what 9 Fanged Hummingbird has to say in that regard (the native societies).
So I think the best case scenario is one where a lot of really awful shit happens, but where the societies that manage to avoid the initial wave manage to rebuild something - which may or may not latter suffer imperialism, but by that point we're looking at how India fared, not OTL North America.
But I don't think it is possible to create a scenario where Europeans fail completely in the New World - even if Cortez falls over board, you have a lot of people who will see the Aztecs as worth exploiting.
That's probably a step up for your hoped-for-scenario compared to OTL's "eliminating", though.
I do think Flubber is right that you should read the threads on this before. A lot of the main issues have been covered in depth in previous threads, so while new research is awesome, the basic stuff presented here hasn't yet been challenged - or at least no one has used this thread to mention it.
You could also very well have Cortez fall overboard on the crossing from Cozumel to the mainland and drown. A rather anticlimactic end to their daring expedition.
What would happen if his troops deserted before he caught wind of it, leaving him abandoned in a foreign land surrounded by potentially hostile people.
But can we try to get back on track with this thread? Let's get away from the heavily divided ideas on disease and colonization and try to get back to a developing Native civilization and how advanced they can get up until 14~. WE can come back to massive die-off and genocide in a while.
Without relying on an extreme prehistoric POD that changes the geography or fauna of the Americas, there are still a few possible routs to take to create an American civilization more advanced than OTL's and more importantly more populous and politically stable. The real weakness Mesoamerica and the Andes had against the Spanish was that the Spanish caught them at periods of extreme political instability. The Inca were in the middle of a civil war, the Mexica were under a weak leader sitting on a house of cards, and the last large Maya confederation had just collapsed into a feud of warring dynasties. North Americans seem to have generally seem to have a little less trouble in this regard, though rival tribes did make alliances with European powers to suit their purposes, to their eventual misfortune.
In any case, you could try to avert the Preclassic Collapse in Mesoamerica, or have them not suffer so much from it and build up on their mistakes earlier. This results in a Mesoamerica which by the 15th Century would be quite a bit more populous than OTL's as well as having fewer societal collapses preventing more technological advancement than we saw IOTL. It's not a dramatic advancement, it certainly won't result in them becoming an advanced iron-age civilization, let alone nearing an industrial state like Europe. But it's enough to give them a much better chance at warding off initial European incursions, and if the initial waves are deterred strongly enough further attempts become less likely to succeed or even be made. And the advantage of using Mesoamerica here is that in addition to being the most advanced Native-Americans they were also possibly the most mercantile. This means they can spread their technology better than anyone else could. So North American civilizations would have a better chance to grow and South American civilizations would benefit from such things as writing and whatnot.
As I said, it's not a dramatic change by the OP's standards in that it makes them the equals of Europe, but it is something simple that could easily happen in the historical era and would give Native-Americans a much greater chance to ward off European invasions and at the very least help their cultures survive to a much greater extent than IOTL.
In any case, you could try to avert the Preclassic Collapse in Mesoamerica, or have them not suffer so much from it and build up on their mistakes earlier. This results in a Mesoamerica which by the 15th Century would be quite a bit more populous than OTL's as well as having fewer societal collapses preventing more technological advancement than we saw IOTL. It's not a dramatic advancement, it certainly won't result in them becoming an advanced iron-age civilization, let alone nearing an industrial state like Europe. But it's enough to give them a much better chance at warding off initial European incursions, and if the initial waves are deterred strongly enough further attempts become less likely to succeed or even be made. And the advantage of using Mesoamerica here is that in addition to being the most advanced Native-Americans they were also possibly the most mercantile. This means they can spread their technology better than anyone else could. So North American civilizations would have a better chance to grow and South American civilizations would benefit from such things as writing and whatnot.
As I said, it's not a dramatic change by the OP's standards in that it makes them the equals of Europe, but it is something simple that could easily happen in the historical era and would give Native-Americans a much greater chance to ward off European invasions and at the very least help their cultures survive to a much greater extent than IOTL.
Well, that's at least an improvement, rather than "oh that can't happen. oh what was that? yeah no, i'm just gonna repeat what i already said." That's the majority of what I've gotten so far.
But any comments about that little idea I wrote earlier? Does it seem even remotely plausible? I still like the idea of it, but
(1) could it happen at all?
(2) would it make much of a difference in the long run?
How do we avert the preclassic collapse? I sort of have an idea for the Maya (putting the screws to Tikal for good so the Kan Dynasty is more durable and manages to make the Maya lands into someplace with a tradition of larger states comes to mind) but nothing comes to mind for central Mexico. Unless we hit two birds with one stone and suggest that Teotihuacan lasts longer and switches its support to Calakmul/whatever the seat of the Kan Dynasty is at the time of the PoD.
A Spanish defeat in Mesoamerica could give the native North Americans some respite, delaying colonization but still having some trade with fishermen, during which they gain vital knowledge about Europeans and European technology. North America being controlled by a power less interested in settlement colonies (like France or the Netherlands) would do wonders for the Native population, though I'm not sure how you'd achieve that given that settler colonies will generally have an edge
Possibly England pulling a Somalia during the Revolution? That will leave North America wide open to be colonized by countries with small populations (The Netherlands, Sweden) or that don't have a desire to send their population overseas (France), which will do wonders for the Native peoples.
A successful Pequot War and Opechancanough destroying Jamestown (while leaving witnesses) could also dull England's desire for settler colonies.
I'm not sure how they can learn from fishermen that translates into practical technology. I mean, speaking for myself, I know about computers - but I couldn't teach anyone how to build one (not even the coding, just putting together the parts so that the CPU can do what CPUs do, etc.). A lot of things are going to have that element - not just anyone knows or can easily teach (and language barrier is going to have to be overcome - that's going to take some serious effort for more advanced things - for instance with ships, the different ropes and sails have their own names and purposes. Not impossible to teach - just that trying to express what the hell you're talking about would be a chore) them.
I'm sure that you can do better than OTL with luck and so on and so forth, but "even"? That seems nearly impossible just via this. Too much to cover in too short a time (since Europe is continuing to advance even as the natives try to catch up).
You could easily avert the entire Classic Era Collapse just by having one battle between Kaan and Mutul (Tikal) in 695 AD go the other way. That one battle broke the power of Kaan's massive hegemony and in the long-run led to a lot of political instability in the region that meant that when other catastrophes struck the people there couldn't handle it, though they certainly tried. In any case, averting the Preclassic Collapse (or even just keeping Teotihuacan around) is trickier due to the sparseness of records and that the records that do survive are hard to understand since they are so ancient.
What is known about Teotihuacan collapse is that a lot of it probably had to do with thinning resources. They could be conceivably given a longer lease on time by having them reduced in power enough that they aren't powerful enough to demand so much tribute from far away and keep building prestige projects and making enemies, but still strong enough that they can defend their existence and try to maintain some traditions of being the head of some sort of empire. Sort of like contemporary Rome when you get down to it. However, unless there's an extremely ancient POD I can't really see them supporting Kaan at all. Mutul (or Tikal as most people know it these days) seems to have been Kaan's big enemy at least in part because their dynasty was established from Teotihuacan and represented their interests in the region. Kaan was likely a rival to Teotihuacan since before El Mirador fell if I were to guess such things.
You're right that I may have overstated the ability of fishermen to show them how technology works, but learning about white culture would be invaluable to the Natives-'know your enemy' and all that. The Native Americans often had no idea what they were getting into when initial colonization began, so a period of contact where they may hear more about the wars of religion and European warfare may be helpful. Contact with fishermen in this scenario could spark a fur trade that begins without heavy settler presence and gets the Natives guns for fur, which could mean that when European settlement does begin, European settlers will find better-armed natives who will not be willing to be pushed over so easily.
(and before the Charles Mann fanboys jump in to point out that 'guns are inferior to bows', I challenge you to fire a bow even half accurately in a stiff breeze.)
True, 'even' Native Americans north of the Rio Grande without some sort of agricultural POD isn't really achievable IMO. 9 Fanged Hummingbird has a pretty terrific argument for a Mesoamerica that could resist colonization with socio-political POD's, but North America is much more sparsely populated which makes initial resistance to colonization easy in some ways (scattered tribes are harder to bring to heel) but in the long run weakens them severely against colonization.
There is that. I'm again uncertain how far this would be shared - but anything they can gather is useful. The Europeans were not like what they had ever faced before, did not play by the same rules, and did not care for the things taken for granted. That's a recipe for things going wrong, which does not favor the tech have-nots.
I wonder how much guns would be traded for furs in this scenario. But that's getting into specifics rather than a useful counterpoint.
More seriously - I'm not a Charles Mann fanboy, but I counter dare you to accurately fire an early firearm at a hundred yards in any conditions.
Frankly, both have some pretty crippling disadvantages if the weather doesn't cooperate (rain is evil for both specifically).
Yeah. The only areas in North America I can see doing reasonably well are the areas that get written off as not worth taking - if the middle of the North American continent is largely seen as not worth settling, that almost by definition means that the natives that roamed there are doing better than OTL - although they're probably still subject to the settlers to some extent, it might be considerably less than OTL. Just not enough presence on the part of whitey to interfere to the extent of OTL.
Reasonably well is naturally "as opposed to facing Custer and losing".
Actually rain is less disadvantageous for bows than it is for early firearms. It's not good for bowstrings which should be kept safe and dry when not in use and prolongued exposure to rain can ruin a composite bow, but a self-bow that doesn't use glue doesn't have the same problem and any bow that's still intact can be used reliably in the rain as opposed to a musket where you'd have to take larger pains to keep the powder dry because while a wet bowstring gets weaker over time it still works whereas wet powder is useless.
True. But its bad enough to mean that having a back up weapon is a very good idea.
I think this is getting into a question of "good idea" vs. "necessary", which I'm not enough of an archery expert to pretend I can defend.
Either way, wet gunpowder being just plain useless is harder to work around.
Does that idea I wrote back on page 1 or 2 work well enough for an agricultural POD?
I find it unlikely that even highly advanced Native societies would be able to bring in llamas from the Andes without refridgeration-those things do not do well in the tropics, and while fish ponds are useful, I don't think they're a real game changer for the Native Americans.
I can't really tell you how to do your POD, but if you want an advanced civilization north of the Rio Grande and want to do something that's not been done as often, you could try having a plant POD. It's not ASB, as plants can go through great genetic changes which can spread rapidly through their population.
Versions of grains that are domesticated earlier and lead to an earlier rise in civilization have been done before, but I don't think any of the timelines with them have gone far beyond first contact. It would be interesting to see such an idea developed in full.
Another idea is a fibrous plant that can create warm clothing like wool. Part of what limited Native populations in the north was clothing. Without deer with which to make warm clothes, they could not survive the winter, and so deer were a limiting factor. A mutant version of say, milkweed that can act like flax or a floral version of wool could be helpful for this. It would result in a much higher Native population in North America at contact, and while this may not create the disease pools that alternate domesticate timelines often have it creates more opportunities for the resistance scenario that 9 Fanged Hummingbird outlined to play out somewhere.
I can't really tell you how to do your POD, but if you want an advanced civilization north of the Rio Grande and want to do something that's not been done as often, you could try having a plant POD. It's not ASB, as plants can go through great genetic changes which can spread rapidly through their population.
Versions of grains that are domesticated earlier and lead to an earlier rise in civilization have been done before, but I don't think any of the timelines with them have gone far beyond first contact. It would be interesting to see such an idea developed in full.
Another idea is a fibrous plant that can create warm clothing like wool. Part of what limited Native populations in the north was clothing. Without deer with which to make warm clothes, they could not survive the winter, and so deer were a limiting factor. A mutant version of say, milkweed that can act like flax or a floral version of wool could be helpful for this. It would result in a much higher Native population in North America at contact, and while this may not create the disease pools that alternate domesticate timelines often have it creates more opportunities for the resistance scenario that 9 Fanged Hummingbird outlined to play out somewhere.
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