Europe's relations with Russia in case of no World Wars

[pinerana]

Now I'm very well aware that in the early 1900s Russia was very much a total part of the European landscape and there wasn't "us=Europe" and "them=Russia" mentality that developed after communist takeover of Russia.

But my point is, with Russia being allowed to peacefully develope it would inevitably become the continent's largest industrial and economic and military power and would thus shatter any illusion of a balance of power, without the wars it's population would also reach at least 400 million by today.

So my question is, would other European countries inevitably embrace each other out of fear of this Russia and create a proto-EU, or would relations continue as before with Russia being fully part of European alliance systems and other things.

Someone will inevitably say it depends on how Russia develops internally so let's just say the Tsars accept the need for reform and take the necessary measures to take the country into the modern era. You can take the liberty to invent other timelines in which the Tsar is overthrown and a republic is instituted or a constitutional monarchy.

And let's dismiss outright the myth that the Russian Empire was somehow doomed to collapse and would've disintegrated without WW1 anyway.

 

[MatthewB]

What about the Russo-Japanese war? That’s the war you really need to stop. Stop the 1904-1905 war and you stop the first revolution.

 

[pinerana]

What about the Russo-Japanese war? That’s the war you really need to stop. Stop the 1904-1905 war and you stop the first revolution.

That's not what the thread is about.... At all. You can have a revolution, it just can't be Bolshevik.

And it most certainly won't be, if Bolsheviks were anywhere close to success the European powers would intervene on the opposing side

 

[Frrf]

Much depends on how decolonisation works out. If Britain and France can remain major powers with possessions around the world, then there is likely still some level of balance. The Triple Entente is very unlikely to survive, and there'd definitely be a reallignment of alliances, but this isn't actually that different from business as usual. If Austria-Hungary and Turkey also survive and develop, then they're likely to be used to help balance Russia. I could see Britain either withdrawing from continental entanglements and focusing on alliances with Asian nations like Japan and India when it eventually gains independance (this was already inevitable, the INC already exists by 1913 and Whitehall was already making plans to release the Raj as a dominion), or making alliances with the Central Powers. Once Britain leaves India, it will have few conflicts with Russia and therefore is likely to treat it much like China, a huge market that they'd rather not piss off.
France is far enough from Russia that it isn't likely to directly oppose Russia. There were already moves within the French government towards reproachment with Germany, and absent a war I would expect relations between the two to normalise, for economic reasons if nothing else. Germany is likely to try and make nice with Russia, as they are already major trade partners and the Germans actually have few conflicts of interest with St. Petersburg and a shared interest in keeping Poland stable.
Italy, Spain and Portugal are unlikely to care much about Russia one way or another, except as a useful counter to France, Britain, Germany and the US.
Austria is likely to be twitchy about Russia. They'll be competing for the same economic niches at the same times, they have a long border, while they do have the shared interest in Poland they also have conflicting interests and spheres in the Balkans. I would expect Vienna to seek powerful friends, in adition to Berlin they'll also try to court London and Paris.
The smaller Balkan states, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania are likely to see Russia as a potential great power friend, and to use either St. Petersburg or another patron to further their own squabbles.
Sweden, Norway and Denmark are likely to be a little twitchy about Russia, and either try to appease, find a powerful protector, or try to assert neutrality. The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg are likely to see Russia as a big market and little else. They have few if any common or competing geopolitical interests, especially after the Dutch and Belgians lose Indonesia and Congo. The Dutch may see Russia as a useful friend to help dissuade the US from getting too interested in their Carribean possessions, but that's likely all.
Turkey, provided the Ottomans don't lose much more ground, is likely to see Russia as a major threat and thus to try and make more friends and allies to oppose it. Whether or not it succeeds will depend on how aggressive and threatening Russia acts.
Switzerland, of course, will be neutral.

 

[pinerana]

Much depends on how decolonisation works out. If Britain and France can remain major powers with possessions around the world, then there is likely still some level of balance.

Interesting analysis, my bet is that colonization would last far far far longer due to several factors:
1. Colonizing countries not being depleted of money and millitary resources
2. Ideas of national independence and the rights of small nations not being that widespread
3. National consciousness in most colonies being lower
4. The idea of empire still being popular and something Europeans are willing to fight to preserve
5. Once colonized countries start making a fuss, it's much more likely that they'll get various degrees of autonomy rather than complete independence and disengagement of the colonizer


As for Europe itself I could see this as having a stabilizing effect because Germany would have to come to terms with the fact that they can't possibly defeat Russia and would stop being as militaristic.

Thought there's a danger of the emboldened Russia making new territorial claims, especially against the Ottomans.
If they were determined to get the Straits, would Europeans be willing to fight on Turkey's side to stop them?

 

[BigBlueBox]

Thought there's a danger of the emboldened Russia making new territorial claims, especially against the Ottomans.
If they were determined to get the Straits, would Europeans be willing to fight on Turkey's side to stop them?

Russia wouldn’t invade the Ottomans on their own out of the blue. They would only attack if given some kind of pretext or casus belli, like an eruption of instability or persecution of Christians. They would also ally with Greece or Bulgaria along with another Great Power (probably France). That could easily be TTL’s World War I.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

In which case you'll get Britain becoming close to Germany, A-H, Italy and the Ottomans to keep their attention off the Middle East oil fields. Britain's not above getting other countries to distract Great Powers by whatever means are needed. Expect many deployments for Saint George's Golden Cavalry.

 

[pinerana]

Russia wouldn’t invade the Ottomans on their own out of the blue. They would only attack if given some kind of pretext or casus belli, like an eruption of instability or persecution of Christians. They would also ally with Greece or Bulgaria along with another Great Power (probably France). That could easily be TTL’s World War I.

Well yeah, persecution of Armenians is a very likely casus beli. But I don't believe anyone is inclined in supporting them to get the straits.
Germany certainly doesn't want to endanger their Berlin-Baghdad railway, Britain doesn't want the Russian Navy out of the black sea, but France could potentially be fine with it if they get some spoils too.

What of Asia though? Is it almost inevitable that Japan invades China?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

The Tsar really hasn't got a leg to stand on if he tries to start a war over Ottomans persecuting minorities after the 1905 pogroms. He'll need a better excuse if he wants French support.

 

[Frrf]

Well yeah, persecution of Armenians is a very likely casus beli. But I don't believe anyone is inclined in supporting them to get the straits.
Germany certainly doesn't want to endanger their Berlin-Baghdad railway, Britain doesn't want the Russian Navy out of the black sea, but France could potentially be fine with it if they get some spoils too.

What of Asia though? Is it almost inevitable that Japan invades China?

While Britain, France and the Mediterranean nations wouldn't be willing to let Russia control the straits, the Russians might be able to convince them to grant control to a minor power like Greece or Bulgaria that all parties feel (rightly or wrongly) that they can sway. So long as the Berlin-Baghdad railway itself isn't disrupted, I'm not sure the Germans would really care if it suddenly passes through another minor nation. It already has to pass through several.

The Tsar really hasn't got a leg to stand on if he tries to start a war over Ottomans persecuting minorities after the 1905 pogroms. He'll need a better excuse if he wants French support.

Don't forget that pre-war France was really quite antisemitic. The Dreyfus Affair happened for a reason.

 

[pinerana]

While Britain, France and the Mediterranean nations wouldn't be willing to let Russia control the straits, the Russians might be able to convince them to grant control to a minor power like Greece or Bulgaria that all parties feel (rightly or wrongly) that they can sway.

But Russians OTL were very much against Greece or Bulgaria getting Constantinople because they REALLY wanted it for themselves, and they felt that they'd have a better chance of taking it one day from the Ottomans than they would from Greece or Bulgaria.

 

[TheGreen]

It sounds like the OP is assuming no communism, which changes thing. But it completely depends on Russia's own strategic objectives.

Political - Democratic vs Communism
Trade - Free Trade vs Closed Borders
Military Defence - Expansionist Colonialist vs Defensive

Then ofcourse there are it's historic allies and enemies and how it deals with them. Without Communism it opens up Russia to have more effective international relationships than OTL

 

[Dorknought]

As Russia grows in power it needs France less. France is well aware of this. Europe would move to a Anglo-French partnership, Austro-German alliance with Russia on its own as a 3 way balance. The potential conflict will be over access to Chinese markets as Russia turns eastward again. Europe will band together as Mackinder’s geopolitics and geostrategy theories grow in prominence.

Control of the straits is the goal of the 20th century but Russia acknowledges that the opportunity will only come with a general European war. Trying to take the straits will only trigger a general European war. Russia will be interested in keeping the Ottomans independent.

The French, British and Germans will continue to exclude the Russians from Ottoman debt control. They will start to collaborate more in the Mid East against Russian expansion. All parties are urging the Turks to not get involved in wars or alliances.

The Balkans will settle on a Greco-Serb Turk-Bulgar split and the Great powers will be happy with this.

Russia will need to cooperate with AH and Germany to keep Poland divided.

It wants revenge against Japan at some point (most likely opportunity will be after the 1923 earthquake).

For this it will have to pry GB away from Japan. Russia wants GB as an alliance partner not just entente. GB won’t be drawn in.

Italy will still be a wannabe Great Power but will have to settle for being neutral only to side with Europe when necessary.

Russia will be the only power that could kick off a general European war in any number of touch points.

 

[BigBlueBox]

This whole idea of Europe uniting against Russia is an extremely anachronistic Cold War mentality. The claim that France and Germany would reconcile and cooperate against Russia is unfounded. The Agadir Crisis demonstrated that any reconciliation would be in the distant future, if ever. The Third Republic of the 1910s was far different than the Second Empire of the 1850s. Russia seizing Constantinople is no threat to French Algeria or French influence in Morocco. For France, the loss of the Ottoman capitulations can be offset by direct control of Lebanon, and perhaps (Greater) Syria as well. It might be a threat to British interests, but so is the Berlin-Baghdad railway. Now that it has firm control over Egypt and the Suez canal, Britain's main interests in the Ottoman Empire would be the Persian Gulf, Iraq, and Arabia, not the Straits. If Germany was to succeed in drawing the Ottoman Empire into its sphere of influence and Arabian and Iraqi oil went to Germany instead of Britain, the British could decide that a dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire in a way similar to the original Sykes-Picot plan would be more advantageous to them than preserving the Ottoman Empire and using soft power to influence it.

Germany and Austria-Hungary would obviously object to this, and would likely go to war against Russia and France. And while Britain might not dogpile on the Ottomans at first, they would have no need to rush in and defend the Ottoman Empire. If the Ottomans are destroyed, Britain will naturally move in to Arabia and Iraq. If France and Russia are destroyed then Britain can jump in at the end to seize French colonies, or just remain neutral and arbitrate a peace that leaves some balance of power on the continent.

 

[AModestGent93]

The Tsar really hasn't got a leg to stand on if he tries to start a war over Ottomans persecuting minorities after the 1905 pogroms. He'll need a better excuse if he wants French support.

I'd say he still does, the Tsar still stylized himself as defender of Eastern Christendom, it might be a double standard to some but he would still see persecution of Christians as a reason to attack the Sublime Porte

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

It's not how the Tsar sees his actions that matters if he wants allies, it's how the rest of the world sees them.

 

[Dorknought]

This whole idea of Europe uniting against Russia is an extremely anachronistic Cold War mentality.

...like the Crimean war? In early 1914 British newspapers were pointing out that it had been 60 years since GB had needed to intervene on the continent and this looked likely to continue.

Germany was worried about the Russians -duh. France was worried about the Russians not supporting them. Britain was worried about Germany crushing France then Russia crushing Germany.

The French (loans), Brits (Naval) and Germans (Army) were working against the Russians in Turkey. The Turks were openly saying they were going to go the Greeks when their new Dreadnoughts turn up bespite everyone telling them to STFU.

 

[pinerana]

This whole idea of Europe uniting against Russia is an extremely anachronistic Cold War mentality.

I know, I mentioned how Europe against Russia is a mentality that arose after the communist takeover of Russia.

However, Russia that doesn't suffer any major defeats, and successfully keeps growing it's economy will be a superpower potentially even stronger than the US.
We're talking 400-500 million people and the largest economy in Europe.
No other European power would stand a chance against this Russia.
Don't you think this would somewhat change the dynamic from what if was in 1900?

Britain's main interests in the Ottoman Empire would be the Persian Gulf, Iraq, and Arabia, not the Straits.

Britain never had an interest in the straits. It had an interest in Russia not getting them. Because Russian straits means a Russian Navy in the med and globally threatening British supremacy

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Britain never had an interest in the straits. It had an interest in Russia not getting them. Because Russian straits means a Russian Navy in the med and globally threatening British supremacy

Very true. The thought of the Russian Navy neatly boxed up in the Baltic and Black Seas gives British Admirals warm fuzzy feelings. They would have been ecstatic in 1920 if Murmansk had ended up in Finland and further isolated Russia.

 

[BigBlueBox]

I know, I mentioned how Europe against Russia is a mentality that arose after the communist takeover of Russia.

However, Russia that doesn't suffer any major defeats, and successfully keeps growing it's economy will be a superpower potentially even stronger than the US.
We're talking 400-500 million people and the largest economy in Europe.
No other European power would stand a chance against this Russia.
Don't you think this would somewhat change the dynamic from what if was in 1900?

But Europe never united to keep the United States out of European affairs did it? Sure, there would be plenty of nations that fear Russia’s rise as a threat to the established order. But there would others that view it as an opportunity to construct a new order that better suits their own interests. Revanchist and irredentist nations would be very interested in a partnership with Russia, just like the revanchist and irredentist nations of the OTL Interbellum partnered with Germany.

Britain never had an interest in the straits. It had an interest in Russia not getting them. Because Russian straits means a Russian Navy in the med and globally threatening British supremacy

The Straits are only one of three important chokepoints in the Mediterranean. In fact, they are the least important one. Britain controls the other two - Gibraltar and the Suez Canal. Two out of three ain’t bad. They didn’t have the Suez Canal and Egypt during the Crimean War.

Tsarist Russia could not achieve naval superiority over Britain within the predictable future. Britain is an island, whereas Russia has numerous borders, each one of them a potentially hostile border. Because of this, Britain could spend the majority of its defense budget on the navy while Russia would have to spend it on the army. The smaller share going to the navy would have to be further split up between the Baltic, Black Sea, and Pacific Fleets. And as the Russo-Japanese war demonstrated, Russia’s ability to reinforce the Pacific Fleet with the Baltic Fleet was rather poor, especially if it was denied passage through the Suez Canal.