Europe's reaction to German intervention in A-H

[Germaniac]

While reading through threads on the collapse of Austria-Hungary after a CP victory i noticed the majority feel Germany would intervene and a great number of people believe Germany would absorb the "German" territories.

Well, that got me thinking. Let's say WW1 doesn't break out like in OTL. FJ dies on schedule and the Ausgleich of 1917 breaks down into revolt/revolution.

Serbia and Romania would be chomping at the bit to intervene, how would Bulgaria react to the Serbians and Romanians being occupied to the North.

Would Germany, or any other Great Power (looking at the Czar) intervene? What would the ramifications of that be? France certainly could see Germany occupied to its south and make its move, GB would almost definitely be strongly against Germanys growth south, but would it be as wary of Russian growth west?

 

[Gar48]

If Austri-Hungary felt appart, basically every single country of the region would try to grab some pieces: Germany would try to annex austria and other german areas, Italy had plenty of irridentist claims towards the area ( as example Istria and the city of Fiume), and of course Russia would try to annew the austrian portion of Poland
Yes , England would probably try to maintain the balance of power but throught diplomacy rather than military , if Germany or Russia don't cause any trouble

France certainly could see Germany occupied to its south and make its move,

If they do this, they will look like the aggressors, meaning that England either stays neutral or sides with Germany against them

 

[stevej713]

Austria-Hungary experiencing some sort of chaotic breakdown is far from certain. The Czechs and Poles were relatively quiet and the Hungarians were decently comfortable with their position (not exactly happy, but nowhere near the point of revolt). Plus, many of the non-Germans in A-H were more afraid of the Hungarians, a fact the Habsburgs could easily exploit.

Austria's biggest problem was external - Serbia was a growing thorn in the Habsburgs' side. It was becoming clear that Austria would eventually have to take action against Serbia, but Serbia was backed by Russia, and Germany would side with Austria, and so on and so forth until WW1 starts up.

 

[Germaniac]

Alright, well let's say FF decides to go ahead with the United States of the Danube. With this will come universal suffrage across Hungary. The Hungarian elite don't agree and intend to take their independence... so civil war.

I don't believe the ethnic minorities, save for some serbian extremists will rise up against Austria.

So lets say its Cisleithania + Croatia vs Transleithania with subsequent Serbian and Romanian intervention.

I honestly don't know I'd the other powers would be so eager to intervene. Mostly out of fear of escalating an already bad situation.

 

[raharris1973]

I saw something about the French having had discussions with Russia in the 1890s about growth of Germany being unacceptable in the event of Austrian collapse. But it strikes me the only way to stop it is war.

 

[Ivoshafen]

@Gwrtheyrn Annwn

Feel like your voice could be used here.

 

[BlondieBC]

While reading through threads on the collapse of Austria-Hungary after a CP victory i noticed the majority feel Germany would intervene and a great number of people believe Germany would absorb the "German" territories.

Well, that got me thinking. Let's say WW1 doesn't break out like in OTL. FJ dies on schedule and the Ausgleich of 1917 breaks down into revolt/revolution.

Serbia and Romania would be chomping at the bit to intervene, how would Bulgaria react to the Serbians and Romanians being occupied to the North.

Would Germany, or any other Great Power (looking at the Czar) intervene? What would the ramifications of that be? France certainly could see Germany occupied to its south and make its move, GB would almost definitely be strongly against Germanys growth south, but would it be as wary of Russian growth west?

The Austrian had orders for handling a Hungarian revolt. Sometime in the 10 years leading up to WW1, these sealed orders were given to corp commanders. After the crisis passed, the orders were returned unopened. We know that Slavic troops (Croatian) troops were used heavily in these orders to repress the Hungarians. The Hungarian side treated minorities much worse than the German side. The Magyarization and all that. So we could have a situation where this works. But this is probably not your scenario you had in mind.

So say this fails. IMO, the German army will be sent in to help the Austrians fix the issue. It will work unless Russia intervenes since no one else is strong enough to intervene and close enough. Italy is too week. France is too far away. Royal Navy is not sailing up Danube. If Russia intervenes, then IMO this triggers WW1 via the alliance system. Lots gets murky here beside UK likely stays out initially for balance of power. Also, by 1916 Germany was expected to switch to War Plan Russia not OTL Schlieffen Plan, so Belgium stays out. Alliances can break a lot of ways here. For example, it is easy to see a desperate Hapsburg giving Italy its desired areas and Italy honoring the alliance. Then not hard to see Ottomans as Russian ally. Or lots of other possibilities.

But that may not be your scenario. So say the Austrian fail to put down the Hungarians. Germany for whatever reason does not send troops into Hungary. In that case, Germany and Russian will try to woo the new Hungarians into the Alliance system. The system will shift. Again, becomes stable quick with some possible border adjustments like buying off Italy with some concession or Hungary buying off Russia with border adjustment.

Now finally to the scenario I think you are going for. A-H falls apart. Germany does not intervene to save. Then everyone grabs a bit. Italy will get her claims and Germany will likely be ok with it since it keeps Italy as Ally. Germany will occupy Austria plus Czech area. Probably Slovenia. Croatians got along well with Austrians so this probably also is in Greater Germany. I think Russia getting Ukrainian areas of A-H is given. Russia will want Polish areas of A-H. This will bother Germany, but since we have no WW1 from this, then that means this issue was resolved. Maybe Poland is given independence. Maybe Poland is personal union with Tsar. Maybe Germany get some concession in Poland like in prior eras.

Now all this could easily lead to war, but if it does not, we have a Russia, Germany, and Italy wank. Germany is huge, and its issues with Russia are largely gone since Russian has what it needs in Balkans. Germany will not be huge on Adriatic Coast ports and like, so Italy and Germany have compatible interests. If we assume Hungary exists with borders on the Mountains everyone has borders they are pretty happy with. Alliances shift. Great Game continues. I would expect Germany to develop even more interest in colonies. Russia would lust for the straights, and Germany would be ok with this if Germany gets concessions. Italy would lust for Med concessions. UK would rush to support Ottomans. I can't call France's foreign policy easily.

 

[BlondieBC]

Alright, well let's say FF decides to go ahead with the United States of the Danube. With this will come universal suffrage across Hungary. The Hungarian elite don't agree and intend to take their independence... so civil war.

I don't believe the ethnic minorities, save for some serbian extremists will rise up against Austria.

So lets say its Cisleithania + Croatia vs Transleithania with subsequent Serbian and Romanian intervention.

I honestly don't know I'd the other powers would be so eager to intervene. Mostly out of fear of escalating an already bad situation.

He had largely rejected that idea by OTL WW1 start so I don't see United States of Danube. The Hungarian sufferage sounds right. The larger Hungarian population was viewed as more friendly to the Hapsburgs than the Hungarian nobles

Also don't rule out one parliament not two.

 

[Germaniac]

Not a scenario, more thinking through.

Im firmly on the side that A-H's (and the Ottomans as well) collapse is NOT always a fact. It look 4 fronts and 4 years of war to take them down, they could definitely take a punch... or 10.

I think that if Hungary tried getting out the KuK army would absolutely trounce the Honved, with or without intervention. Im more thinking of how to keep europe out of an A-H internal conflict.

 

[BigBlueBox]

If you do this

We know that Slavic troops (Croatian) troops were used heavily in these orders to repress the Hungarians.

then this

For example, it is easy to see a desperate Hapsburg giving Italy its desired areas and Italy honoring the alliance.

is a really bad idea because this

The Hungarian side treated minorities much worse than the German side.

wouldn’t be true anymore.

The Croats were mostly autonomous within Transleithania anyways and weren’t subject to Magyarization.

 

[Tibi088]

The problem with the whole sceme is that reform in A-H was a huge hornet nest. You simply cant touch it with only pissing off the Hungarians. For one if FF gets the throne and begins a realisation of his Greater Austria project I assume the hungarians will be only the first to revolt, but lets face it: that sceme was utter madness to implement at the time:
1. the Hungarian part
2. The czech would hate it nearly as much and would either rebel or have serious unrest needind troops to keep order
3. Poles same as the czechs.

These three nationalities are clear loosers of the idea and the Habsburg Empire would loose the loyalty of these. All 3 are of the most important nations of the Empire: they have money and influence. On the other hand the clear winners are the ukrainians, slovakians, romanians and slovenians. All are poor compared to the former three and mostly without serious influence and local nobility. The rest I consider somewhere in between - they would go along with it but not be universally too happy.

It is a trend here to simplify the problems of the Empire to the Hungarians. They were only the most obvious part of the problem and Im not even sure the most serious one.
I consider the solving of the czech - german problem a much more important and difficult problem to tackle. If you can solve that than the Empire can be built on the german-hungarian-czech-polish-croatian group and be stable. Of this five only the czech's and germans had very hard to solve problems with each other.

I dont think if a civil war breaks out and Hungary is in open revolt, with Polish Galicia and Bohemia either revolting or needing serious amounts of troops to kept in line would pass without intervention. My scenario:

1. Civil war breaks out in A-H.
2. Lets give Russia some credit and drive so they will try to fully use the opportunity:
a. encuraging Serbia to interve guaranteeing its safety if things dont go as intended. Serbia is proposed to attack mainly in the direction of Bosnia and Croatia - let the Austrians and the Hungarians fight it out.
b. same with Romania
c. Try to make sure the czech and polish rebel as well. Polish are optimally to join Poland under Russia
d. put forces on Austrian border in threatening position so Austria either has to keep troops there or Russia will be in a very good position for an intervention
3. If Russia does and succeeds in all the above Austria is practically doomed. The best Austria can do is ignore the Russians and dont engage the romanians and serbians. Priority is keeping/restoring order to Bohemia because thats the industrial heartland of the Empire. After that they need to beat the hungarian. This can be achieved but I wouldnt expect too swiftly - the performance of the Austrians in the beginning of WWI doesnt induce me with confidence in regards of speed.
4. After that they have to beat the serbians, romanians and poles.
5.The problem is that without active Russian or German intervention I dont think Austria can completly be destroyed. I think that they will have a hard time beating all the above but sooner or later they will do it.
6. Even if you add Italy to the mess I think the Empire would master the internal trouble after a while. Howeve it would be severly weakened and considered wothless as an ally.

The above assumed a very passive Germany. Whats the best the germans can do and I think would do:
1. Very firmly and resolutly take a pro Austria stand. Making it clear to the minors that any intervention will be met with German forces as well. Make an offer of german troops - as many as possible and as early as possible. The best way to solve the problem is by trying to keep it small - scare off possible intervention - and also help the KuK to deal with it as swiftly as possible so order is restored. If its still not enough it wont hurt your chances that there are already a quarter million german soldiers in Austria.

But I regard a serious A-H civil war unlikely. It would not only be dumb by FF to force a reorganisation of the Empire which could lead to the above but also to do it without rigging the game. Meaning that if he and his advisers would be hell bent on this reorganisation they would I assume prepare for it.

 

[NoMommsen]

I wonder ... here's much talk about uprisings and armed rebelions happening ... if the 'one(s)' above fail on whatever reform ...
Such kind of violence seems to me rather easily assumed.

Aside the hungarian revolution of 1848/49 have there ever been armed rebelions/uprisings taking place in A-H afterwards ?


The austro-hungarian compromise of 1867 was a very 'political' thing, arranged, negotiated, reached by politicians ... and not by 'force of/on the streets'.

Even the 'end' of A-H' in oktober/november 1918 was a unbloody, unviolent, political affair by politicians and not 'revolutionary masses' on the streets (very different to Germany for that).

 

[Gwrtheyrn Annwn]

@Gwrtheyrn Annwn

Feel like your voice could be used here.

Well, you asked for it (literally).

I'll start with the premise, the Augsliech (I assume you mean the 1867 compromise given the 1917 version was never enacted) breaking down in rebellion in 1917 after Franz Joseph's death as per OTL. There are problems with this, for starters by that point it is clear that A-H is in a life or death situation, lose the war and vultures will be circling. Nobody in the empire, apart from maybe the Italian areas, wants this. A-H falls and Galicia is annexed by Russia (who are of course still in the war at this stage), Serbia goes full Yugoslavia, something that is the stuff of nightmares for Hungary, and Romania comes into Translyvnia, again the stuff of nightmares for Hungary, at the very least. So a Hungarian rebellion in 1917 has one result, the dramatic hastened of Habsburg defeat and the immediate annexation of swathes of Hungarian territory by Serbia and Romania. Give me one reason Hungary would rise up when that is the result? The only scenario I can see for a Hungarian rebellion is one incited by the Entente/Allies with promises to maintain the Lands of St. Stephen (something impossible after Romania's entry to the war in 1916) because otherwise the idea is never going to gain traction outside the relatively small opposition parties in Hungary.

But let's accept the premise, A-H collapses and the vultures are circling. Russia immediately sends troops into Galicia-Lodomeria (assuming this happens before the October Revolution), German-Austria will join with Germany because trust and faith in the Habsburg's has been broken and they fear the Hungarians wrath or even some kind of Socialist rebellion (if after October Revolution) this will require no extensive military campaign from the Germans, German-Austria will join willingly in this situation. Serbia will sweep into Bosnia and Vojvodina (definitely) and depending on their strength might try for Croatia and Slovenia as well (literally every Hungarian propaganda leaflets about Serbian war aims come to life) and Romania will, as you say, throw the kitchen sink at getting Transylvania.

At this point Germany is, arguably, in a stronger position. It has gained the resources of German-Austria, plus Bohemia as well in all likelihood since the Czech independence movement only really took off in May 1917, with the Manifesto of Czech Writers, when it became clear that the Entente/Allies were considering the dissolution of A-H and only then became a major force after Wilson's 14 Points speech. Either way, Germany is now a renewed powrhouse with more resources and a more compact theatre of war. There will no more sending troops Galicia or Serbia, just head-to-head confrontation on the two major fronts (though they will probably continue support for Bulgaria and the Ottomans). Not only that but Serbia and Romania could well drop out of the war now that they have achieved their goals and Russia will be spending time trying to convince the Poles from rising up in Galicia and indeed, by this time, struggling with its own massive domestic problems. So, once Russia inevitably drops out (almost certain if Kerensky tries to keep the war going, a decision which only helps the Soviets) a Großdeutschland can throw everything it has at France, meaning a successful Ludendorff Offensive or equivalent is entirely possible. Bulgaria and the Ottomans will probably be worse off though since the collapse of A-H means they are cut off from German guns and men and ai both will probably be defeated quicker, leading to German victory, but not a comprehensive one.

Long story short, the premise is pretty unlikely to actually happen, a Hungarian rebellion does them no favours at all and in fact it would make their situation worse but if it did I have a feeling it would actually help Germany in the long run as they gain access to more resources whilst simultaneously reducing the fronts they are fighting on, this is especially the case since they would almost certainly gain German-Austria without bloodshed (indeed the German Military Expedition to Austria means they won't even have to send additional troops in) and most likely gain Bohemia as well (though that may be more challenging to take, but resistance will minor).

 

[Gwrtheyrn Annwn]

1. the Hungarian part
2. The czech would hate it nearly as much and would either rebel or have serious unrest needind troops to keep order
3. Poles same as the czechs

I agree on the Hungarian part but why exactly would the Czechs hate Greater Austria? It gives them the autonomy they been demanding for decades. Yes, it cuts of the Sudetenland but I think that would be a small price to pay for the autonomy they have been demanding, at least initially. They will probably seek to remain it later but in the short-term Greater Austria is the beat option for them because they aren't going to get autonomy any other way.

And as for the Poles, they were the single most loyal ethnic group to the Hapsburgs (after the Germans of course) as they treated them far better then the Russians or indeed even the Prussians. Greater Austria, assuming a Polish state doesn't exist in which case that changes things completely, would be well received by the Poles, again because it gives them autonomy.

The only people Greater Austria should really piss off, at least to start with, is the Hungarians and fiercely conservative Austrians.

 

[BlondieBC]

If you do this

then this

is a really bad idea because this

wouldn’t be true anymore.

The Croats were mostly autonomous within Transleithania anyways and weren’t subject to Magyarization.

I don't know where you get your information, but A-H considered Croatian troops better suited to crushing Hungarians than German Troops. I think you are reading too much post war information and not enough prewar information.

 

[BlondieBC]

Not a scenario, more thinking through.

Im firmly on the side that A-H's (and the Ottomans as well) collapse is NOT always a fact. It look 4 fronts and 4 years of war to take them down, they could definitely take a punch... or 10.

I think that if Hungary tried getting out the KuK army would absolutely trounce the Honved, with or without intervention. Im more thinking of how to keep europe out of an A-H internal conflict.

Quick is the best way to keep the Europeans out. Slow is the best way to get many to intervene. Almost regardless of details, if it is all over in a week or three, then Europe will not have time to react. By the time all the leaders get back to their capitals and talk to their advisers, it will be done. Have this drag out over 18 months, and we get a 100% chance of intervention.

And this is why I tend to think A-H will survive. Good chance the initial plans work whether negotiated or military. If the plans are failing, the Germans will rapidly be sending a few divisions to help. Or just mobilizing a few extra to help. So this would end it even if the Hapsburg are a bit slow. Then we get to the real issue. With Germany already on heightened alert and probably some extra units mobilized and Austria fully mobilized, Russia will know what happens when the first Russia Regiment crosses the border. And this is a ugly war with Germany getting a jump on mobilization compared to Russia and France by a few days to weeks.

And to be fair, Hungarians are not Slavs so crushing a few Hungarians does not really rally public hatred in Russia.

And also to be fair, the Hapsburgs are not looking to crush any nationalities, they are just looking for a compromise that buys another 50 years of peace. And more funding for the central government which the Hungarians held hostage. So the following terms look pretty good to the Austrians.

• Repeat status quo for another 50 years.
• Minimum funding levels for the central government (i.e. military)
• Minimum staffing levels for army.
• Army where all units clearly loyal to Hapsburg stay on throne.
• Throw in whatever else works that does not inflame other minorities.

There is a lot of white space to fill in the details with whoever will support the Hapsburgs. My guess is the most likely scenario is the Hungarians read the handwriting on the wall and renew the deal with the military type concession the Hapsburg want. i.e. No separate Hungarian army.

 

[Tibi088]

I agree on the Hungarian part but why exactly would the Czechs hate Greater Austria? It gives them the autonomy they been demanding for decades. Yes, it cuts of the Sudetenland but I think that would be a small price to pay for the autonomy they have been demanding, at least initially. They will probably seek to remain it later but in the short-term Greater Austria is the beat option for them because they aren't going to get autonomy any other way.

And as for the Poles, they were the single most loyal ethnic group to the Hapsburgs (after the Germans of course) as they treated them far better then the Russians or indeed even the Prussians. Greater Austria, assuming a Polish state doesn't exist in which case that changes things completely, would be well received by the Poles, again because it gives them autonomy.

The only people Greater Austria should really piss off, at least to start with, is the Hungarians and fiercely conservative Austrians.

1. The Czech were really adamant on keeping the traditional borders of Bohemia and wanted an autonomy for that. And that was the problem: any solution that would not respect the traditional borders of Bohemia was unacceptable to the czech. Any solution ceding centrol of the sudetengeman territories to czech nationalists is unacceptable to the germans. Also notice that Prague is not part of Bohemia.
2. A big part of the polish being loyal was a quasi autonomy they enjoyed in the whole of Galicia. If you take from them half of Galicia you will loose them. OTL the final straw that made them revolt at the end of WWI were austrian tries to give up some territory in eastern galicia to the newly forming ukrainian state in the hopes of gettind food - the Empire was starving at that point.

And we are speaking about a time were chauvinistic nationalism was at its high. Drawing new borders on ethnically very mixed territories is going to piss of a lot of people even in the best case.

 

[Gwrtheyrn Annwn]

1. The Czech were really adamant on keeping the traditional borders of Bohemia and wanted an autonomy for that. And that was the problem: any solution that would not respect the traditional borders of Bohemia was unacceptable to the czech. Any solution ceding centrol of the sudetengeman territories to czech nationalists is unacceptable to the germans. Also notice that Prague is not part of Bohemia.
2. A big part of the polish being loyal was a quasi autonomy they enjoyed in the whole of Galicia. If you take from them half of Galicia you will loose them. OTL the final straw that made them revolt at the end of WWI were austrian tries to give up some territory in eastern galicia to the newly forming ukrainian state in the hopes of gettind food - the Empire was starving at that point.

And we are speaking about a time were chauvinistic nationalism was at its high. Drawing new borders on ethnically very mixed territories is going to piss of a lot of people even in the best case.

Well of course they aren't going to like it but it's their only chance at autonomy so I would have thought they accept it for now, though the situation would be untenable long term.

A fair point but I still think they would grudgingly accept it (though only if there is no Polish nation) at least in the short term.

For both ethnic groups the Greater Austria solution can only be a short-term fix they will need resolution in the future, much like the Augsliech of 1867. Trouble was, it was envisioned as a be and end all solution to the empire's ethnic minority problems and that was never feasible.

 

[Tibi088]

Well of course they aren't going to like it but it's their only chance at autonomy so I would have thought they accept it for now, though the situation would be untenable long term.

A fair point but I still think they would grudgingly accept it (though only if there is no Polish nation) at least in the short term.

For both ethnic groups the Greater Austria solution can only be a short-term fix they will need resolution in the future, much like the Augsliech of 1867. Trouble was, it was envisioned as a be and end all solution to the empire's ethnic minority problems and that was never feasible.

I dont think they would accept it. The thing with the Empire as it was before WWI was that nearly everyone wanted to reform it in some way - mostly to the benefit of their own nation. See the ideas of Masaryk before WWI: He was for a federalization of the Empire in a way that the traditional borders of Bohemia must have been kept intact while on the same time he would destroy the traditional borders of Hungary using the nationality as reason and create Czechslovakia inside Austria.

The thing was that Austria was a bad but not that bad compromise that everyone knew or at least hoped would be reformed in the hopefully near future and everyone thought that the direction this reform would go might be what he wanted. The nationalistic leaders were thinking in this ramification: how to reform the Empire to my liking? The key is they were loyal to the Empire because of this. The other key is that their views were in most cases irreconcilable with the views of the leaders and wants of 1 or more other nationality of the Empire. The loyalty of a great many of the empires subjects relied on this hope. If the actual reform does happen and its not what they wanted they can be pretty sure that a new reform wont come shortly. After a reform the loyalty of the loosers - the now hopeless - will plummet pretty swiftly. As I see it the biggest looser would be beside the most obvious hungarians - the czech and the poles. They clearly come up much worse than they hoped too.

My belief is that if the initial phae of the change is survived Greater Austria could and would work. The problem is I dont see how to do that without hopelessly alienating some of the key nationalities of the Empire.

 

[Gwrtheyrn Annwn]

I dont think they would accept it. The thing with the Empire as it was before WWI was that nearly everyone wanted to reform it in some way - mostly to the benefit of their own nation. See the ideas of Masaryk before WWI: He was for a federalization of the Empire in a way that the traditional borders of Bohemia must have been kept intact while on the same time he would destroy the traditional borders of Hungary using the nationality as reason and create Czechslovakia inside Austria.

The thing was that Austria was a bad but not that bad compromise that everyone knew or at least hoped would be reformed in the hopefully near future and everyone thought that the direction this reform would go might be what he wanted. The nationalistic leaders were thinking in this ramification: how to reform the Empire to my liking? The key is they were loyal to the Empire because of this. The other key is that their views were in most cases irreconcilable with the views of the leaders and wants of 1 or more other nationality of the Empire. The loyalty of a great many of the empires subjects relied on this hope. If the actual reform does happen and its not what they wanted they can be pretty sure that a new reform wont come shortly. After a reform the loyalty of the loosers - the now hopeless - will plummet pretty swiftly. As I see it the biggest looser would be beside the most obvious hungarians - the czech and the poles. They clearly come up much worse than they hoped too.

My belief is that if the initial phae of the change is survived Greater Austria could and would work. The problem is I dont see how to do that without hopelessly alienating some of the key nationalities of the Empire.

Greater Austria was far from perfect but is was arguably the only way of reforming the empire and keeping it stable long term. Trouble is, as you say, it is impossible to satisfy all parties. However, I believe that if certain comprises were made, say Sudetenland autonomous within a Czech federal state then it could work.

If we had to take the Greater Austria plan verbatim then it is still possible, but there would have to be some suppression of rebel groups. Overall, however, it depends on the circs. the situation has to be bad enough then everyone can see the need for reform but bit so bad that the groups choose to rebel instead.