Europe's Political Evolution without World War I

kernals12

Banned
World War I was highly avoidable, so it's realistic to look at what could've been. Let's assume the Archduke doesn't get shot so no border changes at all. I assume we'll still see the rise of democracy particularly in the face of the great depression, which will probably bring a few revolutions. I also assume the power of the United States will leave its mark by the 40s and 50s even with no wars. What are your thoughts?
 
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kernals12

Banned
I think Russia's royal family was screwed given Nicholas' stubbornness. Russia would probably have a revolution by 1932 although it'll probably be like OTL February Revolution as World War I is what made the interim government unpopular and unstable and brought the communists to power.
 

kernals12

Banned
Assuming the Ottomans can hold on to their territory in the Persian Gulf, they'll be getting a manna from heaven once oil is discovered in 1934. And now that they've got the money, they'll be out for revenge
 
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There were significant internal political pressures building in Germany, Austria, Russia and elsewhere before 1914.

There are two possible scenarios - the violent and the non-violent - but there would be change.

In the former, increasingly harsh repression generates more militancy and extreme views until something kicks the whole things off and revolution comes with violence and a brief civil conflict before the old order is swept away and new structures emerge.

In the latter, changes within the ruling elite allow a lessening of repression and a gradual transition to more democratic structures.

I think Germany might follow the latter route post Kaiser Wilhelm with a transition in the 1940s to democratic or technocratic Government. It's hard to see Russia avoiding another 1905-style convulsion which perhaps might create an unstable democratic Government in the 1920s. In Austria the tensions also include nationalism - could Karl oversee the dismantling of his Empire and the creation of a Central European Federation - seems a tall order but not inconceivable.

Italy is a candidate for peaceful transition, I'd argue as is Spain.
 
WWI was indeed highly avoidable but the tensions, imperialistic ambitions, defensive alliances and arms race that lead to 1914 weren’t...the continent seemed poised for a general war since early 1900s and 1914 was just the moment on wish clumsy diplomacy and alliance schemes detonated the war.
If war was avoided in 1914, another set of events would detonate the conflict no much later...
So, IMHO, in order to have an alt no-1914 Europe you need to, somehow, to modify this war-like environment...maybe a good start would be to avoid to early death of Frederick III, a somewhat of a reformist which could have helped to reform the bellicose German elite of such times (not that WWI was only Germany’s fault, but a more balanced Germany would have been a good influence in general European affairs)
 
World War I was highly avoidable, so it's realistic to look at what could've been. Let's assume the Archduke doesn't get shot so no border changes at all. I assume we'll still see the rise of democracy particularly in the face of the great depression, which will probably bring a few revolutions. I also assume the power of the United States will leave its mark by the 40s and 50s even with no wars. What are your thoughts?

This is a massive topic and pieces of its discussion are spread all over this site. I would agree with others here that 1914 was the perfect storm and the year all the roads led to a war but it might have been avoided. In fact I think the danger was between 1912 and 1916, after that things begin to realign, get us to the 1920s and I will imagine a world spinning off into a weirdly retro-future.

Without the war and America's entry into it I am doubtful the USA ever ascends to global supremacy. It will be the single largest national economy and likely the biggest mercantile power, I think we see the Americans aggressive in challenging for markets and leveraging her big domestic market for economies of scale that allow her to remain a brutal competitor, yet her military power is likely to rank her barely a Great Power, more Italy than Britain. I think the USA looks more like China, a different way than imperialism, building an economic and cultural threat versus a military one. The USA stays envious of the British yet hateful of her and the Empire. I think the rivalry continues with Germany who is the next industrial powerhouse and overall number two world power, but the Russians will overtake Germany, and thus the Russians will become the one all bets are on to become a super power. It will be a world where the British Empire faces the Russian Empire, the flash point will be China who stays under the thumb far longer, stays exploited and Russia sees China as the next conquest.

Obviously my opinion is that Russia is on track to either see a revolt or start a war to head one off, I believe the Czar was plotting for a re-match with Japan to restore his road to supremacy. As much as I see the Germans in the thick of bracing for war and thinking it was the best way to assure her survival if not supremacy, I find the Russians just as ambitious and foolish. To me Russia is more Petrostate, riding a vast natural wealth that promoted a concentration of wealth, a deeply divided society, and the inefficient state that carried through even after the revolution. Russia will likely always be a dangerously ambitious yet hobbling nation. Thus I think the first global war will be caused by events in Russia, its ambitions and the fears of the other European powers.

Without the war you have a more stubborn conservatism generally and a retarded liberalization in democracy as well as society. Revolutionary change becomes more possible, likely Russia was set for another revolt, possibly precipitating a war or leading Russia to go to war to forestall it. I doubt we see a Great Depression but we certainly can see another deep recession as long term business cycles readjust things. Once the Kaiser's generation dies off you get the relatively weak new monarchs, Edward VII and Wilhelm III, the image of royalty likely suffers through their hedonist and ineffectual reigns. I think the Social Democrats slowly claw into power but it might be a trend that picks up steam beginning in the 1940s or 1950s after a longer and more incremental reform of things within Germany or A-H. The dangerous years are the 1930s as the aging old guard hope to stop the changes coming, those will be some of the last governments defending the top down Monarchy, fearful of the common man exercising power or agitating for a greater share. Colonialism will be more persistent and long lived. China remains under foreign thumbs and stays poorer longer. With the Ottomans becoming a major producer I think Europe is awash in relatively cheap oil, it might begin to look like 1950s America by the 1960s, highways, big cars, jets a "cheap" energy boom. Europe, especially Germany, remains more industrial longer, it has dirty air and water, it is more urbanized. The USA has a serious racial problem to finally cure and the British Empire will face its colonial subjects demanding the ideals of its culture. Best case scenario is Germany shifts into Social Democrat land, builds a customs union focused on industrial power rather than military, the A-H proves that a multi-cultural state is viable and they unite to pave a path for Europe to cooperate rather than wage war. Worst case we see the same old thing with new names.
 

kernals12

Banned
I agree generally with what you say but a few quibbles.
I think the USA looks more like China, a different way than imperialism, building an economic and cultural threat versus a military one. The USA stays envious of the British yet hateful of her and the Empire
It would be unprecedented for such a large and wealthy country to not try to have influence abroad

To me Russia is more Petrostate
Imperial Russia ITTL would have a population about the size of the United States, I don't think there'd be enough natural resource rent to make the country a petrostate.

Edward VII
I think you mean Edward VIII, and remember the reason he abdicated was because he married a twice divorced American commoner, not because of his fondness for the Nazis

Europe is awash in relatively cheap oil
Europe was awash in cheap oil IOTL, they just imposed very high gasoline taxes (that was caused by the world wars and may be butterflied away but I digress)
 

kernals12

Banned
There were significant internal political pressures building in Germany, Austria, Russia and elsewhere before 1914.

There are two possible scenarios - the violent and the non-violent - but there would be change.

In the former, increasingly harsh repression generates more militancy and extreme views until something kicks the whole things off and revolution comes with violence and a brief civil conflict before the old order is swept away and new structures emerge.

In the latter, changes within the ruling elite allow a lessening of repression and a gradual transition to more democratic structures.

I think Germany might follow the latter route post Kaiser Wilhelm with a transition in the 1940s to democratic or technocratic Government. It's hard to see Russia avoiding another 1905-style convulsion which perhaps might create an unstable democratic Government in the 1920s. In Austria the tensions also include nationalism - could Karl oversee the dismantling of his Empire and the creation of a Central European Federation - seems a tall order but not inconceivable.

Italy is a candidate for peaceful transition, I'd argue as is Spain.
Actually, the Archduke was planning on doing this, he even had maps drawn up

upload_2018-3-6_22-28-14.png
 

kernals12

Banned
Yep, I heard he might not have renewed the Ausgleich. He wanted more of an United States of Austria.

I've never seen a no WW1 TL on the board tbh
I did one, although my intention was to get Liberal Democracy to every corner of the world by the 1960s, not a realistic look at what would've happened with no World War I.
 
I agree generally with what you say but a few quibbles.

It would be unprecedented for such a large and wealthy country to not try to have influence abroad


Imperial Russia ITTL would have a population about the size of the United States, I don't think there'd be enough natural resource rent to make the country a petrostate.


I think you mean Edward VIII, and remember the reason he abdicated was because he married a twice divorced American commoner, not because of his fondness for the Nazis


Europe was awash in cheap oil IOTL, they just imposed very high gasoline taxes (that was caused by the world wars and may be butterflied away but I digress)

The USA was gain influence by virtue of its wealth rather than its military. The RN is acting world cop, the USN is sufficient to show the flag and equal to the task of deterrence. We have no standing commitments once the Philippines gain independence, the USA has no intervention in Mexico, Haiti or the Banana wars, even if it does it takes barely more than two Brigades of Marines to quell any other American state. The Army never grows beyond a four Division force, likely never gets much more than a medium weight tank, by the 1950s it is all long in the tooth and rather out dated in doctrine. Even the Navy might atrophy without any need to project power since we have no global war, no cold War and our ships travel as neutrals. The PRC today sends money, invests, provides arms and advisers but has no genuine reach with traditional military power, its "Imperialism" is more a function of becoming the biggest trade partner, buying the minerals, mines or exports rather than standing off shore with a Carrier Battle Group.

Even the USSR floated on its natural wealth with a horridly inefficient economy, I think the Russians remain under industrialized despite having the population and wealth, ut I would still give them second biggest economy after the USA, third if the British Empire holds its together and is counted as one economy. I think they squander more on defense and prestige projects, the traditional corruption bleeds off he cream and the elite get comfy.

My bluetooth keyboard drops letters. I suggest he is a bachelor King, if he marries it is an English girl but he remains a gadfly and is reign is mediocre, without a war I doubt he is forced to abdicate and dies, George VII steps in to restore faith in the majesty that is the peerage. Without the American involvement in war there is less acceptability for American adventurers in London, I accept a butterfly sends the divorcee on another path.

Without instability in the Middle East or the threat from the USSR, I think the Europeans are not as pressed to restrict imports, especially the UK and Germany who have better supplies from Persia and the Ottomans, latter the Gulf and Arabia. A surviving OE is buying so the Pounds and Marks flow back better. I think congestion is more a problem for Europe so the era of big cars, cheap gas and the open road ends in the 1960s.
 

kernals12

Banned
The USA was gain influence by virtue of its wealth rather than its military. The RN is acting world cop, the USN is sufficient to show the flag and equal to the task of deterrence. We have no standing commitments once the Philippines gain independence, the USA has no intervention in Mexico, Haiti or the Banana wars, even if it does it takes barely more than two Brigades of Marines to quell any other American state. The Army never grows beyond a four Division force, likely never gets much more than a medium weight tank, by the 1950s it is all long in the tooth and rather out dated in doctrine. Even the Navy might atrophy without any need to project power since we have no global war, no cold War and our ships travel as neutrals. The PRC today sends money, invests, provides arms and advisers but has no genuine reach with traditional military power, its "Imperialism" is more a function of becoming the biggest trade partner, buying the minerals, mines or exports rather than standing off shore with a Carrier Battle Group.

Even the USSR floated on its natural wealth with a horridly inefficient economy, I think the Russians remain under industrialized despite having the population and wealth, ut I would still give them second biggest economy after the USA, third if the British Empire holds its together and is counted as one economy. I think they squander more on defense and prestige projects, the traditional corruption bleeds off he cream and the elite get comfy.

My bluetooth keyboard drops letters. I suggest he is a bachelor King, if he marries it is an English girl but he remains a gadfly and is reign is mediocre, without a war I doubt he is forced to abdicate and dies, George VII steps in to restore faith in the majesty that is the peerage. Without the American involvement in war there is less acceptability for American adventurers in London, I accept a butterfly sends the divorcee on another path.

Without instability in the Middle East or the threat from the USSR, I think the Europeans are not as pressed to restrict imports, especially the UK and Germany who have better supplies from Persia and the Ottomans, latter the Gulf and Arabia. A surviving OE is buying so the Pounds and Marks flow back better. I think congestion is more a problem for Europe so the era of big cars, cheap gas and the open road ends in the 1960s.
The Middle East didn't dominate the oil industry until the 1960s. Until then, oil meant Texas, not Saudi Arabia.
 
Isolationist US works until something happens to one its own overseas. Then the demands to Do Something happen. That's pretty much how all mercantile Empires happen.

China is just about at the start of this. They are advertising a movie called Operation Red Sea here. Chinese soldiers went into Yemen to pull some nationals out. A similar film is Wolf Warrior 2 about Chinese mercenaries protecting nationals in Africa. The former was loosely based on real events. Given the Chinese influence in Africa you can see the later coming. So don't for a moment think China won't get more proactive about getting involved around the world.

So it will be for the US in a non-WW1 world. The sent troops after the Boxers. They enforced their will in Cuba. Something will keep them in the Philippines longer than they want to be. As the world's biggest economy they will have citizens everywhere, getting in trouble everywhere, and sometimes the government will have to pull them out, and sometimes, they will get stuck in a quagmire.

That said, the army will probably stay small. But they will have the navy and the connections to stick their noses in most places whenever they want.
 
Without WW1 a war of some sort between Loyalists and Republicans in Ireland might well kick off.
Without the war, the British would eventually pass the Government of Ireland Act 1914, which would likely prevent this, or at least seriously reduce its likelihood. Also, we likely avoid the 1918 Flu Pandemic, which will save tens of millions of lives.

One thing that might have an effect is the early development of airlines. Russia was pushing for this in 1914 with one Igor Sikorsky's Ilya Muromets airliner due to enter service that year. I can imagine a mad scramble by other powers to do the same, leading to a much earlier and multi-sided 'airliner war'.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Liberal political parties might hang on for longer, but most of them would be replaced by Social Democrats in the end.

The only liberal party that had a chance to survive permanently is the British one.
 
I think Russia's royal family was screwed given Nicholas' stubbornness. Russia would probably have a revolution by 1932 although it'll probably be like OTL February Revolution as World War I is what made the interim government unpopular and unstable and brought the communists to power.

Very few experts on Russian history would agree with this. Russia was actually quite stable with the moderate opposition bought off and the radicals isolated. There is no revolutionary movement to speak off The possibility of the Duma wrenching power from anyone is zero as it had no popular support at all. Nicky could probably have easily gotten away with dissolving it once and for all in a few years
 
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