European War of 1870

[Eurofed]

Some changes in the Italian High Command during the War of 1866 (PoD 1) lead to Italian narrow victories in the battles of Custoza and Lissa. In the peace treaty, Austria cedes directly to Italy Veneto, western Friuli, and Trentino. Prussia and Italy are pleased with the outcome of the war, and confirm their defensive alliance against France and Austria.

In 1870, the Hungarian Prime Minister Andrassy, a staunch supporter of Austro-Hungarian neutrality, falls ill and has to be replaced (PoD 2). In his absence, Emperor Franz Joseph nominates a new Hungarian Premier which is much more compliant with the plans of Austrian Chancellor Beust, a fierce anti-Prussian revanchist, who pressured Franz Joseph to make the Ausgleich compromise with Hungary in order to secure Magyar support for a new war. Beust is hence able to lead Austria-Hungary into an alliance with France.

Unbeknowst to France and Austria, however, Chancellor Bismarck had taken steps to secure further support for the Prussian-Italian alliance in case of war: by using previous French demands of territory along the Rhine, he was able to sign secret treaties of mutual defense after the Austro-Prussian war between Prussia and the southern German states. Even more importantly, Bismarck was also able to make a secret reinsurance agreement with Russia in 1868 and 1870 by which Russia promised to attack Austria in Galicia if Austria joined France in a war against Prussia (OTL).

To further secure the diplomatic isolation of France (and Austria), Bismarck also leaks documents to British press that prove France had demanded Belgium and Luxemburg as the price for remaining neutral during the Austro-Prussian War. Outraged by French expansionistic ambitions on the Low Countries, Britain refuses to do anything to aid France and clings to neutrality in the coming continental war (OTL).

When the Franco-Prussian war starts, Italy, Austria, and Russia heed their alliance committments, and so do the southern German states, where a wave of German nationalism aroused by French aggression trumps Austrian influence. The war hence quickly expands into an European conflict, which pits the North German Confederation, of which Prussia was the dominant member, the southern German states, Italy, and Russia against France and Austria. Britain remains neutral (at least initially). France and Austria may be able to persuade the Ottoman Empire to join the conflict on their side, or Russia may expand the war to the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Falecius]

This war is going to be relatively short and end with the almost total destruction of AH and severe defeat for France. I doubt that France and Austria can hold much more than a year in such a situation.
Only the illness of Andrássy seems to me a somewhat weak PoD. But Italian participation in the war could actually trigger the Austrian intervention alone, woth some butterfly from 1866 to 1870.

 

[Eurofed]

Only the illness of Andrássy seems to me a somewhat weak PoD. But Italian participation in the war could actually trigger the Austrian intervention alone, woth some butterfly from 1866 to 1870.

Well, according to my research, Austrian Chancellor Beust was a fierce revanchist that yearned to reap revenge for Sadowa, while Hungarian Prime Minister Andrassy was a strong support of A-H neutrality, and one of the main factors in keeping Austria neutral during the Franco-Prussian war. If Andrassy is removed, and Beust gains a free rein, it seems to me that he may be able to form the Franco-Austrian alliance he yearned for.

As it concerns the Prussian-Italian alliance in the presence of a good Italian performance in 1866, it could go both ways, it might scare Austria into neutrality or into seeking the military support of France. Given the A-H PoD, I assumed that here it would most likely lean towards the Franco-Austrian alliance.

 

[lukedalton]

This war is going to be relatively short and end with the almost total destruction of AH and severe defeat for France. I doubt that France and Austria can hold much more than a year in such a situation.
Only the illness of Andrássy seems to me a somewhat weak PoD. But Italian participation in the war could actually trigger the Austrian intervention alone, woth some butterfly from 1866 to 1870.

Sometimes the little thing are the cause of great change, and yes a more humiliated AH will be very tempted to attack Italy if she declare war on France.
Well i see AH between the rock and a hard place with basically a war in three front, and if she lost this war is basically over for the empire, Italy surely deman Bozen, Istria, dalmatia and a lot of the adriatic island (basically all the old venetian land), and probably a good chunk of Slovenia, Russia surely annex Galicia plus whater can, at this time all the nationality see the writing in the wall and is basically everybody for itself time, i see Berlin and Moscow go to shopping in the puppet states market..
The performance of Italy really depends if in the time between the two war she has implemented some reform of his armed forces, but France originally beaten only by the Prussian now face a new front, so her chance of victory are slim (and by the way in OTL italian volunteer fight at his side 4.000 men strong, among them Garibaldi who fight in the battle of Digione...i think that here will not be the case).
Just a thougt during this time (Agust 1870) a Savoia become King of Spain, in a scenario of general war maybe this open another front, maybe another little civil war on the iberic penisula?

So long and thank you for the fish

 

[benjamin]

Very nice idea Eurofed.

What of the Turks though? I could see France and Austria putting pressure on the Ottomans to open a second front against Russia as repayment for France's involvement during the Crimean War. Part of the deal may then involve the Turks being promised a free hand in Greece and the Caucus once the war was over.

Also might the capture of Rome be a bit more dicey for the French protected Pope if the war is more wide spread and prone to butterflies?

Benjamin

 

[Falecius]

Hungarians in general will not be happy with this war, as soon as the see "the writing on the wall" they'd ask for a separate peace, depose the King and maybe ask Bismarck to send them some German prince to give the crown to: my bet is the deposed king of Hanover, a move that would probably please the Brits.
Russia will take Galicia and Bucovina. It has to be seen whether they manage to keep Croatia, but at this point they are the only nationality in the Empire with a proper organization and power, so i guess they'll work out a political compromise with the Croatian nobility, as they did OTL, and they will have not many problems with the other nationalities at this stage. They have a working government and adminstration already there, so just change some top leader a get a new constitutional king somewhere. The prominent leader will be probably Kálmán Tisza, or, less likely, Andrássy himself.
Italy will take Bozen, the provinces of the Künstenland, all of Dalmatia and probably Fiume.
Prussia would probably outright annex Austrian Silesia, if it did not in 1866 as a consequence of the improved Italian performance. Northern Tyrol and Salzburg would probably be annexed by Bavaria. The rest of Austria will likely join the German Empire, even if Bismarck would not be so happy at that. He could manage to carve out a separate kingdom of Bohemia, and leave Franz to rule only it, but chances are that even this kingdom will be a part of the Empire. Ah, Lichtenstein and maybe Luxemburg will join as well.

OTL France declared war on Prussia because a Hohenzollern had accepted the Spanish crown. IIRC, his reign in Spain was short lived and Amedeo of Savoy was called by the Spaniard after him.
So Spain might be a secondary front in this war, something that gives me a chance to abolish all the European microstates excpet San Marino at once messing up thing in Andorra. Of course, Italy will annex Monaco.
Now, the Second Reich is a behemoth stretching from Lubiana to Hamburg and from Koenigsberg to Luxemburg, Russia is marginally stronger and France is screwed. Italy takes the Austrian place as the fifth Great Power.
Hungary is still something to be reckoned with, but far less than a powerhouse, and will surely seek either British or German alliance.
Spain is a bloodier mess than OTL, and maybe there are Italian troops there. Europe will probably be a very... interesting place when the Balkan crises show up.
On the continent, Germany is defintely the top guy, and Russia the second one. France will harbor a rabid bitterness against almost everyone, but an Entente is still possible.
If it forms it will be against something very close to the Axis (possibly including Hungary and maybe Romania as well).

 

[MerryPrankster]

This does sound like an interesting scenario.

 

[Falecius]

Very nice idea Eurofed.

What of the Turks though? I could see France and Austria putting pressure on the Ottomans to open a second front against Russia as repayment for France's involvement during the Crimean War. Part of the deal may then involve the Turks being promised a free hand in Greece and the Caucus once the war was over.

Also might the capture of Rome be a bit more dicey for the French protected Pope if the war is more wide spread and prone to butterflies?

Benjamin

If Italy is in the war and France is protecting the Pope, the capture of Rome will be the foremost Italian war goal. But yes, it may happen after a fighting, that would not help relations with Pope. And might happen earlier.

 

[Faralis]

I´m not so sure of Britain staying out of the war ... AH will be toasted and probably France too. The only reason in OTL they did nothing against Germany was because they did not expected a victory as great for the Germans, but with Bavaria, Russia and Italy allied with them they probably will help France ( or pressure several of them to not enter the war at least )

 

[Eurofed]

Well, as it concerns Spain, since Prussia and Italy are allied, a Savoia would be as intolerable for France as an Hohenzollern on the throne of Spain, so either option would become a casus belli for Paris. Spain was riddled by factions and hovering close to civil war in this period, so very likely it spends the conflict mired into internal turmoil and a null factor in the European war (by the way, which name do think this war would get ITTL ??). France and Italy might send some troops there, but it is not too likely, both have bigger fishes to fry with a two-front war. After the conflict, one might toss a coin to decide between an Hohenzollern or a Savoia king, but as a matter of fact, it is quite likely that in the end, Spain is allowed to get a different king by the victors, as a conciliating gesture towards Britain. Perhaps an earlier Bourbon restoration with Alfonso XII, or perhaps Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, the former king of Portugal, who was an alternative candidate.

The expansion of the conflict to Turkey is indeed a very likely possibility, as the French and the Austrians would try and harness Ottoman aid against Russia and to spend political capital with Constantinople they earned during the Crimean War. This would actually please Russia a lot, since an Ottoman declaration of war would allow it the perfect excuse to engage the dismantling of Ottoman rule in the Balkans. This would effectively make the equivalent of the Russo-Turkish War a part of the general war. Even if Turkey does not join the conflict on its own, it is very very likely that the *Russo-Turkish War is started by Russia late in the general war or soon after it, since Russia would claim a partial free hand in the Balkans as part of its reward.

Expansion of conflict to Turkey would make Britain very nervous and significantly increase the likelihood of a UK intervention, if not direct belligerance then diplomatic pressure and deployment of British forces to keep the Russian off the Straits and the Middle East. Britain is not really likely to join the war at its start, when London would regard it as a conflict unleashed by French expansionism and Austrian revanchism. It may change its stance later, after A-H is overrun and destroyed, France is in dire straits, and/or the conflict engulfs Turkey.

It is possible but dubious that it would make a direct intervention to support France or more likely Turkey late in the war, or more likely it deploys forces in the Ottoman Empire to keep the Russians and their allies off certain zones vital to British interests (the Straits, Suez, Egypt, Palestine, Persia). More likely, London would use the threat of a British intervention to try and steer the peace deal towards something more to its liking, but in this scenario, even British leeway is kinda limited.

It is not realistic that Britain would be willing and able to persuade Bavaria, Italy, or Russia to break solidarity with their allies just before or during the war. If anything, it is almost sure that they would take steps to oppose the creation of a German-Russian-Italian continental hegemony after the war, by trying to drive a wedge between Germany-Italy and Russia, helping France and Turkey to get back into shape (A-H is beyond help, ITTL it signed its own death warrant) and Spain to stay outside the German-Italian sphere of influence, and straining to rebuild a rival alliance bloc with France, Spain, Turkey, perhaps Sweden as well.

 

[Eurofed]

As it concerns the peace deal, I'm not convinced that Italy would claim Bozen, it is a German land and it is quite likely that German nationalistic sentiment would drive Berlin to claim it and veto it for Italy at the peace table. Italy may be easily compensated with more French land instead, such as the Riviera and Monaco. Despite his personal misgivings, ITTL Bismarck would not really be able to avoid the creation of Grossdeutchsland, popular pressure for it from German nationalist sentiment would be irresistible. German Austria and Bohemia-Moravia would become subkingdoms within the German Empire with some member of the Habsburg family on their thrones. It is quite possible that Tyrol is annexed by Bavaria, and Austrian Silesia by Prussia. Germany would also annex Alsace-Lorraine and Luxemburg.

Italy would surely annex Rome, Kustenland, Dalmatia, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica. Fiume may become Germany's port on the Med, or be annexed by Italy. Italy would have a sphere of influence recognized in Tunisia and Libya, or directly make them protectorates if Turkey joined the war.

Russia would annex Galicia and Bukovina, make Serbia and Romania its satellites, and would get southern Bessarabia from Romania in exchange for bits of Transylvania, ie. the Banat and/or southern Transylvania, or southern Dobruja.

If Turkey joined the war, we may expect an extensive territorial rearrangement of the Balkans akin to the OTL Treaty of Santo Stefano or the outcome of the First Balkan War to dismantle Ottoman rule. Britain would try and oppose it, but with Austria destroyed and France helpless, even its leeway would be limited. Greece would gain Thessaly, it may or may not gain Aegean Macedonia and Crete. Bulgaria would become independent within modern borders and a Russian satellite, it may or may not get Vardar Macedonia and western Thrace. Bosnia would become an independent kingdom, Montenegro an Italian satellite, and Albania an Italian protectorate. Russia would annex a varying degree of Ottoman Armenia, most likely the vilayets of Erzerum, Batis, and Van.

It is a kinda safe bet that Britain would claim a guarantee of continued Ottoman control of the Straits, seize control of the Suez Canal, a protectorate over Cyprus and over Egypt, as the price for non-belligerance or peace. Crete may end up in Italian, Greek, or British hands, in this rough order of likelihood. Italy would establish a protectorate over Tunisia and Libya, French Indochina may be ceded to Germany and Italy.

It is a safe bet that Hungary would bail itself out and make a separate peace when it sees the writing on the wall, throwing itself on the mercies of Germany as its satellite. It is practically sure to keep Slovakia, most of Vojvodina and Transylvania, although it may lose bits of both to Romania and Serbia. It may or may not keep the union with Croatia, if the victors support the union and Budapest can work out a political compromise with the Croat leadership, or Croatia may become an independent kingdom, a German-Italian satellite. Italy may or may not care to annex bits of southern Slovenia beyond the Kustenland, but it is more likely that all of Slovenia goes into the German Empire.

 

[Falecius]

As it concerns the peace deal, I'm not convinced that Italy would claim Bozen, it is a German land and it is quite likely that German nationalistic sentiment would drive Berlin to claim it and veto it for Italy at the peace table. Italy may be easily compensated with more French land instead, such as the Riviera and Monaco. Despite his personal misgivings, ITTL Bismarck would not really be able to avoid the creation of Grossdeutchsland, popular pressure for it from German nationalist sentiment would be irresistible. German Austria and Bohemia-Moravia would become subkingdoms within the German Empire with some member of the Habsburg family on their thrones. It is quite possible that Tyrol is annexed by Bavaria, and Austrian Silesia by Prussia. Germany would also annex Alsace-Lorraine and Luxemburg.

Italy would surely annex Rome, Kustenland, Dalmatia, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica. Fiume may become Germany's port on the Med, or be annexed by Italy. Italy would have a sphere of influence recognized in Tunisia and Libya, or directly make them protectorates if Turkey joined the war.

Russia would annex Galicia and Bukovina, make Serbia and Romania its satellites, and would get southern Bessarabia from Romania in exchange for bits of Transylvania, ie. the Banat and/or southern Transylvania, or southern Dobruja.

If Turkey joined the war, we may expect an extensive territorial rearrangement of the Balkans akin to the OTL Treaty of Santo Stefano or the outcome of the First Balkan War to dismantle Ottoman rule. Britain would try and oppose it, but with Austria destroyed and France helpless, even its leeway would be limited. Greece would gain Thessaly, it may or may not gain Aegean Macedonia and Crete. Bulgaria would become independent within modern borders and a Russian satellite, it may or may not get Vardar Macedonia and western Thrace. Bosnia would become an independent kingdom, Montenegro an Italian satellite, and Albania an Italian protectorate. Russia would annex a varying degree of Ottoman Armenia, most likely the vilayets of Erzerum, Batis, and Van.

It is a kinda safe bet that Britain would claim a guarantee of continued Ottoman control of the Straits, seize control of the Suez Canal, a protectorate over Cyprus and over Egypt, as the price for non-belligerance or peace. Crete may end up in Italian, Greek, or British hands, in this rough order of likelihood. Italy would establish a protectorate over Tunisia and Libya, French Indochina may be ceded to Germany and Italy.

It is a safe bet that Hungary would bail itself out and make a separate peace when it sees the writing on the wall, throwing itself on the mercies of Germany as its satellite. It is practically sure to keep Slovakia, most of Vojvodina and Transylvania, although it may lose bits of both to Romania and Serbia. It may or may not keep the union with Croatia, if the victors support the union and Budapest can work out a political compromise with the Croat leadership, or Croatia may become an independent kingdom, a German-Italian satellite. Italy may or may not care to annex bits of southern Slovenia beyond the Kustenland, but it is more likely that all of Slovenia goes into the German Empire.

That is more or less the same picture I have, with two exceptions: I think that Bosnia would be partitioned between Serbia, whoever has Croatia, and maybe (but not likely) Italy from Dalmatia.
I think that the Italians will keep Bozen, because they probably will have taken it during the war: I don't think the Bavarian army is going to precede them there and the Prussians are busy elsewhere.
There is the possibility that Germany asks Italy to leave the area under compensation, which might be French Indochina for example, or whatever.

OTL Italy cared about southern Tyrol mostly for strategic reasons about a defensible border, and such reason would be even more patent in this scenario with a powerful, even though friendly, Germany.
If Italy keeps Bozen, there would be a compromise roughly similar to what was worked out between Italy and Austria OTL after WWII: Italy will have to recognize German as co-official language of the area. This would not be an easy concession for the time.
Not sure Italy gets Savoy, altough it is fairly possible. It might be exchanged for some colony more, also (Indochina or parts of Algeria).
Another place Italy might already be interested in could be the tiny French holdings in present-day Djibouti.

OTL Germany was not interested in French colonies at all. AFAIK, Bismarck thought they were worthless at the time. Also, Italy had not a great colonialistic drive yet, except about Tunisia, but given the occasion would reap what she could.
So the French colonial empire might end relatively untouched. The most likely losses are, as said, eastern Algeria, Indochina and Djibouti.

Edit: sorry, France was not really established in Djibouti yet, so that is out.

 

[Eurofed]

That is more or less the same picture I have, with two exceptions: I think that Bosnia would be partitioned between Serbia, whoever has Croatia, and maybe (but not likely) Italy from Dalmatia.
I think that the Italians will keep Bozen, because they probably will have taken it during the war: I don't think the Bavarian army is going to precede them there and the Prussians are busy elsewhere.
There is the possibility that Germany asks Italy to leave the area under compensation, which might be French Indochina for example, or whatever.

OTL Italy cared about southern Tyrol mostly for strategic reasons about a defensible border, and such reason would be even more patent in this scenario with a powerful, even though friendly, Germany.
If Italy keeps Bozen, there would be a compromise roughly similar to what was worked out between Italy and Austria OTL after WWII: Italy will have to recognize German as co-official language of the area. This would not be an easy concession for the time.
Not sure Italy gets Savoy, altough it is fairly possible. It might be exchanged for some colony more, also (Indochina or parts of Algeria).
Another place Italy might already be interested in could be the tiny French holdings in present-day Djibouti.

OTL Germany was not interested in French colonies at all. AFAIK, Bismarck thought they were worthless at the time. Also, Italy had not a great colonialistic drive yet, except about Tunisia, but given the occasion would reap what she could.
So the French colonial empire might end relatively untouched. The most likely losses are, as said, eastern Algeria, Indochina and Djibouti.

Edit: sorry, France was not really established in Djibouti yet, so that is out.

Oh, the reasons why Italy annexed Bozen IOTL would remain just as valid ITTL. The only possible obstacle is German public opinion going into an uproar about a German land under foreign rule, and driving Bismarck to veto the annexation in exchange for compensation to Italy elsewhere. If not, Italy would surely get Bozen. If Germany gets it instead, the most likely compensations for Italy would be eastern Algeria and/or less likely the French Riviera.

No, it is sure that Italy would get Savoy. Despite its actual ethnic-linguistic character, it was seen as an Italian irredenta for historical reasons (it had been under the rule of an Italian state for centuries, and only recently and reluctantly ceded to France to compensate it for its help against Austria), same reason as Dalmatia.

Despite Bismarck's lack of interest about colonies, this may be another case where German public opinion overrules him and drives him to get some for prestige reasons. In the colonial sphere, Italy would surely care to get a protectorate in Tunisia and a sphere of influence or a protectorate (depending on whether Turkey was a neutral or a belligerant) in Libya first and foremost, it may or may not get eastern Algeria as well.

There had been some tentative Italian colonial feelers in South East Asia in the 1860s and 1870s, if they are remembered at the peace table and colonies are used as a compensation for something else (e.g. less reparations for France), they may be built upon. Germany can likewise follow the example of its ally, for the reasons above. Indochina may hence become a German-Italian codominium, or be divided between Germany and Italy, stay French, or become Italian, in this rough order of likelihood.

I honestly dunno if the victors would think of and care to divide Bosnia alongside kinda geopolitical and ethnic lines, or would simply set it up as an independent buffer state. Italy would in all likelihood not be much interested about annexing chunks of it, rather to get all of it as a satellite, if all possible, and otherwise more interested in getting Montenegro as a satellite and even more so, Albania as a protectorate. An independent Croatia would be interested about annexing Croat-majority Hercegovina (although Italian ownership of Dalmatia makes it a bit more awkward, they would have to get western Bosnia as well to make a land connection); Hungary-Croatia would be a bit less interested, but may still claim it as a way to keep its Croat minority happier. Serbia would love to get eastern Bosnia, and Russia may support it to make its Serbian satellite happier. Again, it mostly depends on whether the victors are aware of the possibility of a partition.

 

[Marko]

Since this is 1870. Croatia or in this case Croatia-Slavonia(-Dalmatia) is a very perculiar thing. Bosnia is still Ottoman with an uncertain ethnic majority though Christians are more numerous than Muslims.

Without drawing Ottoman Empire into the war it is highly unlikely Bosnia would become part of Croatia or Serbia at that time.

It is quite likely that Croats would chose a devil they know (Hungarians) and stay with them with special rights south of Drava, than a devil they don't (Italy), a similar thing to what happened in 1918 when SHS merged with Serbia.

Italy and Hungary-Croatia would soon find themselves in conflict because Hungary-Croatia would like to strengthen it's hold on the Adriatic. At the same time that would bring Hungary-Croatia in conflict with both Serbia and Ottomans over influence in Bosnia as Hungary-Croatia would most likely try to annex it in order to get easier acces to the Adriatic.

On the other hand Croats would probably fight tooth and nail not go under Hungarian influence and it is unleikely after the betrayl of 1849 to support Austria again.

So another option is to get Croatia independent with some territories of todays Slovenia. With most of Dalmatia lost to Italy. Curiously this turn of events would make Croats and Serbs allies rather than antoganists with a clear goal of liberating their fellows that would be under Ottoman, Italian and Hungarian control. That would bring Croatia into the Russian sphere.

 

[MerryPrankster]

How well could the Russian army fight in 1870 as opposed to 1877?

In 1877, the Turks could have beaten the Russians--their armies were better--but the Ottoman high command bungled it by making some assumptions about the Russians being too lazy (!) to take the course action they ended up taking.

Even then, the Ottomans held the Russians at Plevne for IIRC five months.

That will affect the situation in the eastern Balkans, which in turn could affect the Ottomans' hold on Bosnia (and Albania too, although I don't know when they split off).

I think the French would try to bring the Ottomans into the war to help them, given how the Ottomans owe them for the Crimean War.

 

[Falecius]

How well could the Russian army fight in 1870 as opposed to 1877?

In 1877, the Turks could have beaten the Russians--their armies were better--but the Ottoman high command bungled it by making some assumptions about the Russians being too lazy (!) to take the course action they ended up taking.

Even then, the Ottomans held the Russians at Plevne for IIRC five months.

That will affect the situation in the eastern Balkans, which in turn could affect the Ottomans' hold on Bosnia (and Albania too, although I don't know when they split off).

I think the French would try to bring the Ottomans into the war to help them, given how the Ottomans owe them for the Crimean War.

But in 1877 the Ottomans had mainly just the Russians (and the rebels) to fight. 1n this 1870 Austria would be on a three (possibly 4, in the unlikely event Romania joins the party) front fighting, and woul probably probably much outnubered in every of them. Yes, when and if the Ottomans join in, things might be harder for Russia, but at this point, Austria would probably be close to non-entityness and Ottomans will have to fight at least the Italians too. So i think situation might be just marginally better for the Russians (Italians will be landing in faraway places while the Russian head straight for Istanbul, so the Turks wouls still the Russians as the foremost threat) but OTOH the rebellions the Russians had come to help in 1877 aren't there, and they'd start only after a significant Russian victory I think.

 

[Falecius]

In general, I think the timing of the war would be fairly important to determine who will gain what. Also, there is a thin possibility of Hungary actually joining the German side when it steps out of Austria.
In the future, I see the rivalry between Italy and Russia in the Balkans more important than the one between Italy and Hungary: Magyars would be unhappy about any expansion since it threatens their demographic weight within the country, while they might accept some place in Bosnia in order to make the Croats happier, but probably not Hercegovina.
This would not strenghten them in the Adriatic though, because the coast would Italian in any case.
It is likely that Bosnia would be an hot spot in this TL as well.
Russo-German alliance might or might not last.
A *CP (germany Italy Hungary) - *Entente (as OTL) situation and war between the two caused by events in the Balkans is still a possibility, probably earlier than 1914. No idea on how it ends. Britain would look at Italy and France as the least dangerous forces around, as opposed to France and Germany.
Consider that this scenario implies Germany is a behemoth and Britain might not like their continental prominence.
Anyway, I doubt the Turks would enter the war unless maybe in the first phases. The are no fools and they would see that Austria is doomed and France alone has little hope to win, so they'd realize they are going soon to face the entire Russian and most the Italian forces, and likely the Greeks and the Serbians too, falling upon them alone, with maybe little French support. If they enter the war when Austria is still an operating entity, they might be of some help.
However, I doubt that Austria can stand for long even with Turkish help,and on reward I expect Romania, Greece and Serbia attacking both. Hungary might then delay it declaration of independence enough to be stripped of some lands to Romanian and Serbian advantage, and be considered a defeated country, improving the chances of an independent Croatia too, enlarged with part if not all Bosnia (and maybe ruled by a Savoia).

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

It be interesting to discuss the war in stages. The first would probably be France and Austria vs. Italy and Germany, as discussed. At a later stage, France could convince the Ottomans to intervene, making the likelihood of a Russian and/or British intervention higher. Then the war starts going poorly for the Austrians, who are fighting internal dissent as well, which finally pushes the Russians into the war to carve out parts of Austrian and Ottoman Empire. When the Austrian Empire really comes crashing down, with the Hungarians making their own Kingdom and the Romanians joining in to gain whatever they can, the British intervene to stop the full weight of Russia bearing down on the Ottomans and the strategic British interests within their Empire. This will probably mark an end to the war, with negotiations favoring the Germany-Italy-Russian alliance.

 

[LordKalvan]

Some changes in the Italian High Command during the War of 1866 (PoD 1) lead to Italian narrow victories in the battles of Custoza and Lissa. In the peace treaty, Austria cedes directly to Italy Veneto, western Friuli, and Trentino. Prussia and Italy are pleased with the outcome of the war, and confirm their defensive alliance against France and Austria.

In 1870, the Hungarian Prime Minister Andrassy, a staunch supporter of Austro-Hungarian neutrality, falls ill (PoD 2). In his absence, the Austrian Chancellor Beust, a fierce anti-Prussian revanchist, who pressured Emperor Franz Joseph to make the Ausgleich compromise with Hungary in order to secure Magyar support for a new war, is able to lead Austria-Hungary into an alliance with France.

Unbeknowst to France and Austria, however, Chancellor Bismarck had taken steps to secure further support for the Prussian-Italian alliance in case of war: by using previous French demands of territory along the Rhine, he was able to sign secret treaties of mutual defense after the Austro-Prussian war between Prussia and the southern German states. Even more importantly, Bismarck was also able to make a secret agreement with Russia in 1868 and 1870 by which Russia promised to attack Austria in Galicia if Austria joined France in a war against Prussia (OTL).

To further secure the diplomatic isolation of France (and Austria), Bismarck also leaks documents to British press that prove France had demanded Belgium and Luxemburg as the price for remaining neutral during the Austro-Prussian War. Outraged by French expansionistic ambitions on the Low Countries, Britain refuses to do anything to aid France and clings to neutrality in the coming continental war (OTL).

When the Franco-Prussian war starts, Italy, Austria, and Russia heed their alliance committments, and so do the southern German states, where a wave of German nationalism aroused by French aggression trumps Austrian influence. The war hence quickly expands into an European conflict, which pits the North German Confederation, of which Prussia was the dominant member, the southern German states, Italy, and Russia against France and Austria. Britain remains neutral (at least initially). France and Austria may be able to persuade the Ottoman Empire to join the conflict on their side.

It is an interesting POD, but I have to agree with Falecius that the illness of Andrassy is somehow a weak POD. IMHO it would make more sense to me if Andrassy resigns his ministry because he's really and seriously ill, and Franz Joseph appoints a new Hungarian prime minister, selecting someone who would play ball: however I would think that the Hungarian establishment would not be too eager to go for another round of Prussia, in particular in a situation where Italy is closely allied with the German Confederation and it is known that there is a Russian reassurance of Prussia aimed against Austria-Hungary (I am pretty sure that Bismarck leaks the news of the reassurance pact with Russia: the good Otto has not the destruction of Austria-Hungary on his agenda, and the talks with Alexander II are aimed to avoid a second front when - not if - the war with France comes). It would be interesting if the new Hungarian prime minister does not manage to hold to a majority: it might even end up in a mutiny of the Hungarian regiments if not an outright civil war, since it might be perceived as a violation of the Ausgleich.

Going back to the main issue, it looks madness for the Austrian to enter a war where they will be engage on three fronts (and as I said before I doubt that Otto would welcome a complete destruction of the Austrian empire which would create a vacuum in central Europe and likely fuel Russian appetites in the Balkans).
Re. the British, I agree they will stay neutral unless their interests in the Mediterranean are threathened: it is a situation which resembles a bit the crisis of 1878, when the British behavior was not particularly aggressive even when the Russians where getting closer to Constantinople.
I also doubt that Russia is prepared in 1870 to attack the Ottomans and Austria at the same time, and I do not understand what the Ottomans would gain by an alliance with France and Austria (unless it is a purely defensive alliance against Russia: and even in such a case I don't think they would react unless effectively attacked by Russia).

 

[lukedalton]

It is an interesting POD, but I have to agree with Falecius that the illness of Andrassy is somehow a weak POD. IMHO it would make more sense to me if Andrassy resigns his ministry because he's really and seriously ill, and Franz Joseph appoints a new Hungarian prime minister, selecting someone who would play ball: however I would think that the Hungarian establishment would not be too eager to go for another round of Prussia, in particular in a situation where Italy is closely allied with the German Confederation and it is known that there is a Russian reassurance of Prussia aimed against Austria-Hungary (I am pretty sure that Bismarck leaks the news of the reassurance pact with Russia: the good Otto has not the destruction of Austria-Hungary on his agenda, and the talks with Alexander II are aimed to avoid a second front when - not if - the war with France comes). It would be interesting if the new Hungarian prime minister does not manage to hold to a majority: it might even end up in a mutiny of the Hungarian regiments if not an outright civil war, since it might be perceived as a violation of the Ausgleich.

Going back to the main issue, it looks madness for the Austrian to enter a war where they will be engage on three fronts (and as I said before I doubt that Otto would welcome a complete destruction of the Austrian empire which would create a vacuum in central Europe and likely fuel Russian appetites in the Balkans).
Re. the British, I agree they will stay neutral unless their interests in the Mediterranean are threathened: it is a situation which resembles a bit the crisis of 1878, when the British behavior was not particularly aggressive even when the Russians where getting closer to Constantinople.
I also doubt that Russia is prepared in 1870 to attack the Ottomans and Austria at the same time, and I do not understand what the Ottomans would gain by an alliance with France and Austria (unless it is a purely defensive alliance against Russia: and even in such a case I don't think they would react unless effectively attacked by Russia).

The AH may think is all a bluff, never understimate the power of self-deception, or maybe Bismark will be overuled by a powerfull public opinion who want Grossdeusthland and AH after the greater humiliation of 66 take a more hostile and aggressive pose against Prussia, nothing is better to stir unity that a external enemy, especially if is in family.
For the Ottomans maybe there is no pact, no alliance, just opportunism or fear that the Russian will not stop in Austria so...hit them now before is too late, basically this european war begin as a local conflict and spread unchecked in a continental conflict by is own