European populations without WW2

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Deleted member 1487

What would the various populations look like in numbers and compositions without WW2 and the Nazis? Assume that Hitler died in WW1 and Wiemar stumbles on until a resolution is reached with the West about reparations and military limits. No more major wars and the League of Nations is still around.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Germany would likely have 10-15 million more people, Czechoslovakia 5 (Mostly Germans), Austria 3, Poland would have around 60 million people, the former USSR around the same but more Russians, the Baltic States would also have the same number but more of the natives plus Jews (primary Lithuania 10%), Germans (Latvia and Estonia 6-8%) and Swedes (Estonia 1-2%).

Lutherans would be a lot stronger religeous group, with a clear majority in Germany (66%), but also stronger in Latvia and Estonia.

Poland and Czechoslovakia would be multiethnic states.
 
Poland and Czechoslovakia would be multiethnic states.

I'm not so sure about Poland; the German community in 1939 wwas pretty much on the verge of extinction, the Jews were being systematically more poppressed, and the rest... well, I suppose it'll be multiethnic in the sense that various peoples live there, but barring a mjor change toleration, rather than acceptance.
 

Deleted member 1487

I'm not so sure about Poland; the German community in 1939 wwas pretty much on the verge of extinction, the Jews were being systematically more poppressed, and the rest... well, I suppose it'll be multiethnic in the sense that various peoples live there, but barring a mjor change toleration, rather than acceptance.

? My understanding was that there were several hundred thousand Germans in Poland, with Danzig being 90% German (hence the free state Danzig, rather than the Polish city of Danzig). What about German minorities across Eastern Europe? What about France? Would their populations still decline?
 
Also Germans in Romania and Hungary would remain there, Jews would probably leave as there was persecution before the war.

Also what does this no WW2 Europe look, is it democratic or is under still under various dicatorships?
 
? My understanding was that there were several hundred thousand Germans in Poland, with Danzig being 90% German (hence the free state Danzig, rather than the Polish city of Danzig).
Numbers were declining precipitously, thanks to quasi-ethnic cleansing in 1920, systematic discrimination afterwards, and better economic opportunity elsewhere. Orphans of Versailles is a pretty good look at their fate.
 
? My understanding was that there were several hundred thousand Germans in Poland, with Danzig being 90% German (hence the free state Danzig, rather than the Polish city of Danzig). What about German minorities across Eastern Europe? What about France? Would their populations still decline?

Many, but not all, of the Versailles borders corresponded to ethnic and linguistic divisions. To that goal, Germany and Poland both extended farther east than they do today. The Polish corridor was an exception, since many Germans lived in Gdansk, because it was deemed more important to give Poland a seaport.

To butterfly away WWII, you would have to treat Germany better and probably let them keep the Rhineland. France would be a little smaller, but more Germans would stay in Germany.
 
Well with a very crude analysis you can look at the population growth factor from OTL 1939-2007 and then recalculate it with the total deaths for that nation put back in.

Country| Population OTL 2007| Population 1939| Total deaths| Possible 2007 population
Albania[1] ........3200523........1073000........30200........3290602
Austria[3] ........8469929........6653000........105500........8604240
Belgium[4] ........10574595........8387000........86100........10683152
Bulgaria[6] ........7621337........6458000........25000........7650840
Czechoslovakia[11] ........15679126........15300000........345000........16032674
Denmark[12] ........5568854........3795000........3200........5573549
Estonia[14] ........1315681........1134000........51000........1374851
Finland[16] ........5357537........3700000........97000........5497991
France[17] ........65165983........41700000........567600........66052990
Germany[19][20][21][22] ........82551851........69623000........7233000........91128004
Greece[23] ........11245343........7222000........311300........11730066
Hungary[24] ........10075034........9129000........580000........10715139
Ireland[29] ........4434925........2960000........200........4435224
Italy[30] ........60051711........44394000........454500........60666512
Latvia[33] ........2366515........1995000........227000........2635787
Lithuania[34] ........3401138........2575000........353000........3867391
Luxembourg[35] ........472569........295000........2000........475772
Malta[37] ........408009........269000........1500........410284
Netherlands[41] ........16518199........8729000........301000........17087792
Norway[44] ........4725116........2945000........9500........4740358
Poland[47] ........38125478........34849000........6000000........44689593
Romania[49] ........21398181........19934000........833000........22292366
Soviet Union[52] ........276917629........168500000........23100000........314880817
Spain[53] ........46061274........25637000........4500........46069359
Sweden[54] ........9290113........6341000........2200........9293336
Switzerland[55] ........7507000........4210000........100........7507178
United Kingdom[57] ........61600835........47760000........449800........62180986
Yugoslavia[59] ........23902031........15400000........1027000........25496017
TOTAL........804006516........560967000........42200200........865062883
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I'm not so sure about Poland; the German community in 1939 wwas pretty much on the verge of extinction, the Jews were being systematically more poppressed, and the rest... well, I suppose it'll be multiethnic in the sense that various peoples live there, but barring a mjor change toleration, rather than acceptance.

While I think the Germans is going to end up almost gone from Poland (with the exception of Danzig), I think Poland can't avoid growing into a multiethnic state (through more like Spain than Canada), if not Poland is going to fall apart in Yugoslavia style civilwar (likely after Stalin when USSR looks less threatning). The Mosaic community is going to survive in Poland, my guess is that Poland of 2009 will have around 6 million jews, while a lot of Jews will emigrate (for the reason you mentioned), they do have a very high birthrate and will likely keep that (lots of Othodocs Jews).
 

Valdemar II

Banned

I once made a calculation of German and Austrian population growth where I compared it other similar states (Netherland, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway), only the most conservative calculation (Flandern), resulted in 91 million people, the more extreme (Netherland and Denmark) resulted in around 110-115 million people, in the end my conclusion is that Germany will likely have higher growth than Flandern thanks to social policies which had a lot in common with Denmark, but I felt that Danish growth (110 millions) was to much. So i ended up looking at Sweden, which resulted in around 100 million people, and made a gut jump because of WWI which lowered it to 95 millions.
Sadly I can't find the calculation after I got a new computer.
 

Deleted member 1487

What about immigration numbers? Much of the current growth and the growth of the nations you mentioned in calculations are based on immigration from non-European and Eastern European nations. What about this factor? Would birth rates fall in line with the post-WW2 malaise?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
What about immigration numbers? Much of the current growth and the growth of the nations you mentioned in calculations are based on immigration from non-European and Eastern European nations. What about this factor? Would birth rates fall in line with the post-WW2 malaise?

Yes they would fall, around the late 70ties like in OTL, but I don't think immigration would change, while Europe would met the insane boom of OTL, we would see a more stable growth* without WWII and be much richer (especially the East Europeans) of course the emigration countries would changes, Poland, Hungary and the Baltic States would be the primary source of Gastarbeiter to North and Central Europe and to lesser extent France. Even before WWI Denmark, Netherland, Belgium, France and Germany had a high level of immigration**, I see no reason, they won't get that with peace and prosperity again. Sweden will also boom in 50 and 60ties, and like in OTL it will get a lot of Finns, but likely its middleeasten immigrant will be replaced by Balts.

*High growth with Europeans using Keynesian economics is almost unavoidable, and the fact that it's after the depression make it even likelier.

**I read a little up on Polish migration to Denmark before WWI, and if you replaced Turk with Pole and made it a little less "PC" it was like reading about immgration today.
 
Germany would likely have 10-15 million more people, Czechoslovakia 5 (Mostly Germans), Austria 3, Poland would have around 60 million people, the former USSR around the same but more Russians, the Baltic States would also have the same number but more of the natives plus Jews (primary Lithuania 10%), Germans (Latvia and Estonia 6-8%) and Swedes (Estonia 1-2%).

Lutherans would be a lot stronger religeous group, with a clear majority in Germany (66%), but also stronger in Latvia and Estonia.

Poland and Czechoslovakia would be multiethnic states.

How did WWII hurt the Lutherans?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
How did WWII hurt the Lutherans?

Prussia, Hinterpommern, Neumark was almost pure Lutheran, Silesia had Lutheran majority. These community was expelled and suffered more attribution than the west Germans. The Lutheran Latvians and Ests also suffered large population loses.

Beside that Communism did it best to create a ateistic identity in East Germany (Almost entirely Lutheran), Latvia and Estonia, and of course in Czechia most of the Protestant (mostly Lutheran) minority also ended up as atheists (through so did the Catholics also).

My guess is that there will be at least 20 million more Lutheran in TTL.
 

Deleted member 1487

Population patterns would not stay the same without WW2. The drop in birthrates could happens sooner, later, or not at all. Eugenics would not be discredited by the nazis, nor would racism or social darwinism. It is likely that high birthrates would be encouraged as a means to counter balance growth in other parts of the world. Also, increased population would mean weath must be distributed among a larger population. Also, male authority is not damaged enough to really encourage feminism, so traditional gender roles might very well still be in effect.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Population patterns would not stay the same without WW2. The drop in birthrates could happens sooner, later, or not at all. Eugenics would not be discredited by the nazis, nor would racism or social darwinism. It is likely that high birthrates would be encouraged as a means to counter balance growth in other parts of the world. Also, increased population would mean weath must be distributed among a larger population. Also, male authority is not damaged enough to really encourage feminism, so traditional gender roles might very well still be in effect.

Good point, the creation of the career womens and growing equality between the sexes, did help lower the birthrate, and without the WWII that will hit those two thing, they will be a few decades behind. Of course even in areas of the world with less equality we see that fall now. So we will likely see birthrates staying high into the 90ties.
 

Deleted member 1487

Don't forget issues with colonialism. The greater strength, weath, and willingness of empires to maintain their colonies is going to mean wars too. I meant to put in that there were no major European wars, but there very well could be some in other parts of the world.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
This depends mostly on the inevitable German-Polish war over the Corridor. If Germany just goes after Poland, I doubt the western powers would react. This was an accepted reality: Germany was going to reseize West Prussia and Danzig at all costs.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Don't forget issues with colonialism. The greater strength, weath, and willingness of empires to maintain their colonies is going to mean wars too. I meant to put in that there were no major European wars, but there very well could be some in other parts of the world.

Yes that will have interesting effects, but only some countries will be affected of this. Likely France will do it best to keep Algeria, but letting the rest of Africa go through they wil in end up in the Francophone, Italy will settle Libya, but in end lose the horn, Britain will give up the empire when they lose india, through I imagine they keep a closer Commonwealth, I think they keep Hong Kong here, Spain will let the colonies go, while Portugal will do as in OTL, through I imagine they may be succesful, Belgium will fight war on the cheap in Congo, and it will likely end as terrible as OTL, while Netherland may succed in keeping some of indonesia (Papua Guniea and a few of easten islands).
 
Population patterns would not stay the same without WW2. The drop in birthrates could happens sooner, later, or not at all. Eugenics would not be discredited by the nazis, nor would racism or social darwinism. It is likely that high birthrates would be encouraged as a means to counter balance growth in other parts of the world. Also, increased population would mean weath must be distributed among a larger population. Also, male authority is not damaged enough to really encourage feminism, so traditional gender roles might very well still be in effect.

I mostly agree on eugenics, but could somebody explain what revolutionary changes were wrought by WW2 for women? And not going to the factories; they promptly returned once the war was over...
 
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