European politics without the French Revolution?

I'm not saying this is THE way, but...

Say, Prussia and Austria start the second Silesian war in 1795, with the Ottomans joining Prussia and the Russians Austria. Prussian support to the Netherlands starts to dwindle, while both sides still avoid too-serious conflict along the Rhine. A petition by Dutch patriot exiles in Paris gets the attention of the French minister of foreign affairs (or whatever his name shall be), and a plot is hatched. In 1797 a French army bypasses defences in the Austrian Netherlands and, nominally under the banner of the Dutch patriots, marches into States Brabant. Panicking, the Stadholder Willem V (or actually his wife) surrenders large amounts of power to the States-General (who themselves suffer 7 mini-revolutions resulting in larger representation of the patriots). He also signs an alliance with France.

Prussia is justifiably upset, and requests support from Britain, which is itself very worried about events in the Netherlands, made worse when the Austro-French alliance of 1798 is signed (later called the 'Quadruple Alliance nr umpteen' as the Dutch are bullied to join and the Russians continue to fight alongside Austria).

In early 1799, Britain declares war on the Dutch Republic and France, and fighting starts throughout the globe. Spain joins France's side against Britain, hence why the Quadruple Alliance never gets more of a name. By 1801, Prussia is defeated and gives up Silesia and parts of Poland to Austria and, in a diversion from prior policy, large concessions in the Rhineland are granted to the Netherlands (Geldern, Lingen) and Austria's late ally Bavaria (more of the triple-duchy of Julich-Cleves-Berg). Austria also makes concessions in its Belgian possessions to both the Netherlands and France. Several cities along the west bank of the Rhine are also brought under French control though not annexed outright.

Now, with the Ottomans on the run, the French, Dutch and Spanish hatch a plot to defeat Britain once and for all. At the naval battle of Brest, a combined Spanish-French naval taskforce barely manages to save an incoming Dutch squadron, bringing the entire Channel into a contentious stalemate between the Continental System (as the alliance is now called) and Britain. By 1803, peace is signed with several colonies shifting sides (greatly straightening out the border in the East Indies, for instance, though the total change in the power balance is limited), and the Canadian-US border shifts a few miles to please the late-joining USA.

Now beginning to despair after two lost wars, Britain begins work on an unholy alliance with Russia while the Austro-French alliance patchwork falls apart (Patriot reforms in the Netherlands leading to the Netherlands almost being a power again and the lack of Spanish gains dispersing the rest). In 1814, Europe stands on the verge of another war between Britain and France, but the British have Russia, now...
 

Skallagrim

Banned
A very interesting ATL for European (geopolitics) for sure, @avernite! I do think, however, that a major war in the 1790s (even the late 1790s) is too early for the French economy to easily shoulder. The extent of France's fiscal problems, budget deficits and vast public debt issue almost cannot be overestimated. OTL's revolution allowed for some rather creative ways of dealing with that, which a "normal" state (for the context of the time) could not use, if it wished to continue being treated as a serious part of the European (and world) order, instead of pretty much a pariah state that doesn't pay its bills.

So... constitutional monarchy France is going to have to walk on eggshells for a bit, getting its house in order. By the late 1790s, assuming the right reforms have been implemented in 1789/1790, that process should be coming along nicely... but it won't be all fixed yet. The vast cost of what will essentially be a global war would, under those circumstances, wreck the French economy again, and quite possibly create such a crisis that a poverty-and-famine-inspired revolution still occurs.

That Second Silesian War sounds very realistic, but France is just going to stay out of it. Risking war with Britain and Prussia over the essentially hopeless cause of what will in the TL be seen as some penniless fringe radicals from the Netherlands...? That would rightly be seen as madness. The Netherlands are already bascially adversarial towards Britain, and not hostile to France! So what would France gain by overthrowing the Stadtholder? Nothing. (Austria would also not support it, nor would it allow French troops to march through the Austrian Netherlands - which they'd basically have to - simply because a Patriot revolt in the Dutch Republic might also reignite the independence movement in the Austrian Netherlands.)

So the Second Silesian War would be more of a Prussia vs. Russia & Austria thing. Far more local. Given that there is no Frederick the Great this time, and Bavaria might indeed be inclined to team up with Austria, I suspect you still get the same basic outcome for the 'main players', in that Silesia and parts of Poland go to Austria.

Would the Ottomans get involved in any of this, by basically joining forces with Prussia? If they do, it might get dragged out longer, and might also end in more of a stalemate.

Potential alternative: France waits until the very end of the war, and only then gets involved... by declaring war on the Ottomans. This takes the form of a naval campaign (which this France is well-equipped to handle), and ultimately pushes the balance of the war in favour of Austria-Russia-France. Getting involved late ensures the costs for France stay manageable, but essentially making the difference for Russia and Austria gets France a lot of credit. Those "several cities along the west bank of the Rhine" are brought under French control, though not annexed outright. No Austrian Netherlands gains for France, but an indemnity for its war costs instead. (Much more useful... for now.)

After the war, the Austria-Russia-France triple alliance is solidified by treaty (in 1800, say). Britain has had no reason to interfere yet, but is getting worried now. When the next war comes (and it will, of course) Britain will presumably be siding with Prussia and the Ottomans.
 
With regards to the USA, assuming a stronger Spain, then the USA doesn't get the Adams-Onis treaty and the USA doesn't wind up with an Oregon claim. I suspect at least one Spanish-American war over Florida or Texas.
 
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