Could it be possible that if a POD ranging anywhere from something in Russia preventing any large expansions eastward to something in Japan that leaves a more pro-western shogunate in charge to just some ship that got stranded somewhere mean that a European power could assert influence into the Siberian Islands like Sakhalin or the Kuril Islands as well as maybe Hokkaido?
Even if it's unreasonable, then which European Nations would be the most likely to try and stake a Claim? (Russia excluded, they already did)