European Exodus to Vinland after Mongol Invasion

What do you think about the following idea.
As Mongols take over Europe reaching to France and Italy, looking like locust of the End Time one knowledgeble but religious bishop from Vatican recalls the myth of Vinland and does find the map showing the land beyond the sea.
Finding a young and charismatic priest who preaches about the End of Days, the bishop convices the priest that God has damned the lands of Europe for sin, and that chosen will have to take a journey across the sea to find a new land for his chosen.
As Mongols invade Italy the bishop, the priest and their first followers flee to Iberia. There they gather support and following of some minor lords, and population. Soon a small fleet of ships is being assembled for the journey.
Meanwhile the pope in Italy declares an oath of loyalty to the Khan, resulting in establishing of an anti-Pope in France which so far has not been conquered.
The priest and his followers do make contact with the English barons and Henry III preaching their message. While not all accept it, some do establish connection to those people. At the same time some knights and lords from England go to France to confront the coming invasion of the Mongols there.
Needless to say that France is defeated and its king as well declares loyalty to Khan, while the anti-pope is killed.
At this time the barons and some at the court are ready to listen to the bishop, and as Henry III prepares to defend his country from the Antichrist, he turns a blind eye to the assembly of ships and visitors landing in England from Iberia.
With the Mongols gathering a fleet against England situation looks dire, and finally Henry accepts that as he might fall in the last battle against the Horde, he prepares his son Edmund to take refugee aboard the fleet.
It is during the invasion as Henry falls, that Edmund is taken to the fleet and as the hordes overrun the country the fleet of around 100 ships sails West.
Desperate religious refugees from Iberia, France and England sail to the lands beyond the sea away from the lands that God damned.
Out of 8,000 or so only half survive the journey as they reach Caribbean months later, with the land in sight the worst seems over as there was even talk of turning back among some of the desperate survivors.
By the time the first foot sets on this new land, the bishop has proclaimed himself the last Pope and a new gathering of priests has been gathered that will keep the christian tradition alive.
The refugees decide to survey the islands and before making permenent settlement with their children, women and what livestock and horses they have left.
In the end they land on the West coast of what we know as America, and divide into three groups and settlements led by English, Iberian and French nobles, all under supervision of the new pope.
As Europe crumbles under the opressive yoke for centuries and late losts its timhee in legacy wars, as well as Plague the refugees start a new civilization beyond, seeing the lands beyond the Ocean as damned and inhabited by devil worshippers.
It would take three and half centuries before there would be contact between the two divided peoples.

So what do you think ?

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https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/editpost.php?do=editpost&p=2641992
 
Interesting Idea but i'm not sure if an invasion of England would have worked for the Mongols for two reasons. One the Mongols had never had great success attempting to conquer overseas and two the backbone of the english military was the longbowman who had a devastating range, they could have cut down many Mongolian horsemen before they got close enough to return fire and the English were among the first too experiment with the use of cannon which could have driven the Mongols back. Other than that the idea seems very good and promising:D
 
Fascinating idea.

It's certainly possible that, assuming knowledge of Vinland filters through to the scholars of the continent that, in the face of some even greater Mongol-wank, that someone might think to do this.

Doing so is much more difficult, requires serious organization, and a sizable, ocean-capable fleet, perhaps Scandanavian guides. Theoretically doiable in my mind, but not my area of expertise to say the least.

As for longbows: have some potential if the Mongol cav allows itself to be caught under the rain of arrows. However, the Mongol composite bow had IIRC a range somewhat comparable to the longbow (limiting the charge-in distance) and the Mongol tactics against foot archers (again IIRC) were rush in, fire, retreat before the arrows fall, which could help negate any longbow advantages, if executed properly.

But then again a countryside of hedgerows and hills and tangled woodlands might very much limit the Mongols' mobility advantages, making conquest of Europe and Britain more difficult for an entirely different reason.
 
Fascinating idea.

It's certainly possible that, assuming knowledge of Vinland filters through to the scholars of the continent that, in the face of some even greater Mongol-wank, that someone might think to do this.

Doing so is much more difficult, requires serious organization, and a sizable, ocean-capable fleet, perhaps Scandanavian guides. Theoretically doiable in my mind, but not my area of expertise to say the least.

My TL had the long, bloody and drawn-out campaign of the Mongols in Europe cause something of a millenial panic in Scandinavia, primarily Norway. Which was near its demographic carrying capacity and with a history of exporting surplus population overseas.

The existence of Vinland was generally known, and there is evidence of some trade. OTL it was likly just thought of as an island about the size of Iceland, better climate, hostile natives. With nothing that couldn't be gotten much closer in Russia.

In my TL, the initial wave led people in Scandinavia to readjust their idea of the size of the place. And once the diseases hit the indians, there was a notion that it was nearly empty as well.
 
It's certainly possible that, assuming knowledge of Vinland filters through to the scholars of the continent that
There is some debate if the Church knew of Vinland-see the "
Vinland map".
For the sake of the idea I assumed it did.
Nice one.
I of course changed the Norse to more Western European group. I would guess people from Scandinavia wouldn't be affect as much by the Mongols.
The contact with Europe is a problem-that's why I decided to have religious inspired exodus, the contact with East is a stigmata as it is the land God damned and only death and demons await there.

One considerable issue is the population-with 4-5,000 people it slows down development. But I would guess the availability of arable land makes up for to a certain degree.
Also I would see the Iberians settling around the warmer areas, and capturing/buying tribal women in certain areas(Islands in Caribean). An institution of concubine would developed, with sanction of the reformed church, allowing to sire offspring without the noble status-as opposed of offspring of wife. Of course with with the time the institution would be frowned upon as circumstances would change.

One interesting thing would be the merging of Spanish and French combined with Latin into some common trade language. I would desitned the English to be seen as somewhat seperate Northerners.
 
There is some debate if the Church knew of Vinland-see the "
Vinland map".
For the sake of the idea I assumed it did.
Nice one.
I of course changed the Norse to more Western European group. I would guess people from Scandinavia wouldn't be affect as much by the Mongols.

That is true. In my TL the goverment of Norway was far less worried about the Mongols than the ordinary people. Asides from some preparations to move the capital if neccessary. The exodus was almost entirely made up of independent families.

There was a higher componenet of more religous colonists from the (Then far more norse) british isles later in the emigration.

While there was a group representative of the crown sent later, it never succeeded in establishing authority over more than a limited area.

One considerable issue is the population-with 4-5,000 people it slows down development. But I would guess the availability of arable land makes up for to a certain degree.
Also I would see the Iberians settling around the warmer areas, and capturing/buying tribal women in certain areas(Islands in Caribean). An institution of concubine would developed, with sanction of the reformed church, allowing to sire offspring without the noble status-as opposed of offspring of wife. Of course with with the time the institution would be frowned upon as circumstances would change.

One interesting thing would be the merging of Spanish and French combined with Latin into some common trade language. I would desitned the English to be seen as somewhat seperate Northerners.

I would think that without the population base to dominate, tech transfer to the indians will be a big factor.
 
I would think that without the population base to dominate, tech transfer to the indians will be a big factor.
I am wondering about that. My colonists would see most Indians as people to forcefully take to workk, and then christanize. Also wouldn't the Indians fall to European diseases during the initial decade of colonization and contact ?
 
I am wondering about that. My colonists would see most Indians as people to forcefully take to workk, and then christanize. Also wouldn't the Indians fall to European diseases during the initial decade of colonization and contact ?

Yes. I assumed a "grace period" of about two generations for the settlers to dig in. And after that, there would still be a period when indian numbers would be low, and contact, both violent and paceful, might spark new diseases in the indians.

I estimated about a 100 years before the indians would be back to a reasonable strength. Possibly as much as 150.

Once that happens, though...the settelers enjoy much less of a technology advantage than they did OTL. And there isn't the constant stream of new people from the east to supplement their numbers.

In my TL, the long band of independent people interacted with the indians in very different ways. Although I did not get around to paying it much attention, I intended to have the latest settlers be form further south, far more religous (often fleeing the looting mongols in europe) and with a feudal culture that was foreign to Norway and Iceland at the time.

This grouping would have made up the "hardliners" in interacting with the natives, and they were intended to be far less successful than the other colonists.

Additionally, I think your group of nobles and priests will be facing a lower amount of relevant coping skills for climate and survival. The UK is really a very poor place to pick up any kind of knowledge of extreme climate, they think snow is extreme.
 
I recommend having the stop at an island instead of the mainland. The advantage in sailng skills over the natives is huge, and the natural barrier will probably save them. If they cut down all the trees they are in trouble though.

Also see this, further down on the page:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=131759

Another problem is where they will replenish their metal stores. The norse was very well versed in smelting bog iron.
 
There is some debate if the Church knew of Vinland-see the "
Vinland map".
For the sake of the idea I assumed it did.
Nice one.

Adam of Bremen mentioned Vinland in his chronicles. But Vinland would have been regarded as one of many fabolous islands in the Atlantic at the time.

Perhaps people go to Greenland, then when it overcrowds they move on to Vinland.


One interesting thing would be the merging of Spanish and French combined with Latin into some common trade language. I would desitned the English to be seen as somewhat seperate Northerners.
There already was Lingua Franca, or Sabir, a creolized form of Old Provinçal, spoken around all the Mediterranian ports and during the times of the crusades, the Iberians and French would have been aware of it.
 
Well I assume that do religious zeal and cultural traits, the colonists would have certain advantages against disorganised Indian tribes. By the time Indians will regain strenght they will be facing small fiefdoms and states on the Coast. Also I see lots of intermarriage/childing with the colonists being the dominant side.
In time I forsee contact with Aztecs by Iberians but shock and disgust about their ways. Still the colonists would lack strenght to conquer to them.
Additionally, I think your group of nobles and priests will be facing a lower amount of relevant coping skills for climate and survival.
Oh the nobles and priests are leaders, but they did take peasents, smiths and the like with them, which are in great numbers.
I do intend them to go down south somewhere around Delmarva Penisual for center of settlement. What do you think ?

There already was Lingua Franca, or Sabir, a creolized form of Old Provinçal, spoken around all the Mediterranian ports and during the times of the crusades, the Iberians and French would have been aware of it.
Thanks !
 
Well I assume that do religious zeal and cultural traits, the colonists would have certain advantages against disorganised Indian tribes. By the time Indians will regain strenght they will be facing small fiefdoms and states on the Coast. Also I see lots of intermarriage/childing with the colonists being the dominant side.
In time I forsee contact with Aztecs by Iberians but shock and disgust about their ways. Still the colonists would lack strenght to conquer to them.
Oh the nobles and priests are leaders, but they did take peasents, smiths and the like with them, which are in great numbers.
I do intend them to go down south somewhere around Delmarva Penisual for center of settlement. What do you think ?


Thanks !

The Delmarva Peninsula is a good place for them to settle. The climate will be more similar to what they have coping skills for. It's fertile, and provides at least some natural barrier.

On the downside it is a very long way from the Caribbean, somewhat to big for the colonists to fill up before the indians recover, and not quite isolated enough to give the defensive bonus needed.

Challenges your colonists will be facing:

Demographics: The initial group is very small. Even given ideal conditions, they are not going to be much more than 30 000 by the time the Indians are recovered. More likly they will be about half that number. Even a low populated medieval country would run 30 people to the square mile.
If we assume a fairly strong start, and a recovery period for the indians of more than 100 years, we might push it up towards 50 000-60 000, but we're pushing plausibility.

And those numbers assume few losses to armed conflict, which means the skills and inclination for that will atrophy.

The initial group of settlers will probably have a skewered rate of the sexes. Indian wives can help to a degree, but they will be vulnerable to diseases.
You will also have a number of non-reproducing clergy, and probably a streak of fanaticism that will make it difficult to gain acceptance for polygamy. God did just smite Europe for sinfulness, after all.

The settlers tech advantage over the indians will be lower than in OTL. No gunpowder.

You're also going to need a lot of skilled workers to keep the skill advantage up. Stonemasons, carpenters, smiths, tanners, weavers, brewers, ropemakers, chandlers, cobblers, seamstresses, shipbuilders etc. And for those skills not to vanish with the first generation, you'll need a surplus generated in the first generation, so they can afford the upkeep of specialists.

Nobles and soldiers are useful for conflicts, but conflicts will lower the growth rate of the colony.

I can imagine that after the indians recover it'll be very difficult for either group to push into the other groups territory.

The next problem is resources. The colonists will need livestock which have survived the difficult crossing and an easy enough first year that they don't eat them all to survive. Cattle, pigs, chicken, etc. Same for the crop package.
And horses. No horses will severly impair the military advantage they have over their enemies.

They'll also need sources for some resources. Iron, most importantly. And wood, though that should be less of a problem.

I have a few ideas for how these problems could be gotten around, but I'd like to hera what you were envisioning first:)
 
What an interesting idea... I hope to see continued!

As a minor nitpick, you need three bishops to elect a Pope (for reasons than completely escape me)-plus the future Pope himself, of course, who does not need to be a bishop- . But that should not be a problem, since you do have refugees from three to nine nations (note than Spain itself does not exist, and the Iberian peninsula is made up of Castille, Aragon, Portugal, Navarre and the moorish kingdoms, while Britain is composed of England, Ireland and Scotland). Each of those nations would have a Primate -the Archbishop of Toledo for Castille, Wesminster for England and Wales, Lyon for France, Tarragona for Aragon, Braga for Portugal, Armagh for Ireland and Edimburgh for Scotland. Italy's, of course, is the Bishop of Rome (the Pope himself)
 
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