European Diseases Already in the Americas

I was recently reading about the affects of diseases the Europeans brought with them to the New World on the Native American population and how it seriously hampered their ability to resist conquest and colonization. However, what if those diseases already existed in the Americas? How long could the natives resist? How would the attempted European conquest proceed if they encountered some real robust resistance from natives that were not dying of disease in catastrophic numbers?
 
I was recently reading about the affects of diseases the Europeans brought with them to the New World on the Native American population and how it seriously hampered their ability to resist conquest and colonization. However, what if those diseases already existed in the Americas?

How and why? Earlier contact, by Norse explorers, Basque fishermen or Irish monks bringing the deseases over?
Or the same diseases as in the Old World being common in the Amaericas since the last Ice Age?
Whatever PoD you pick, by 1492 the demographics anmd ethnic composition of the Americas will look completely different. There will be kingdoms of people we have OTL never heard about.

How long could the natives resist?

Longer than OTL, but if the main difference is the presence of those germs, than the colonists still have the advantages of horses, domesticated cattle, pigs, sheep and goats, ironworking, firearms and a more sophisticated societal organization. To name but a few.
India and many parts of Africa had all theses benefits as well, but the Europeans still subjugated them (but did not manage to genocide or remove them).

How would the attempted European conquest proceed if they encountered some real robust resistance from natives that were not dying of disease in catastrophic numbers?

Subjugation and a role as colonial subjects or second-class citizens. But survival and the potential to chase away the Europeans one day.
Or a mixture of cultures, like you see in many parts of Latin America, where the indigene numbers were higher to start with.

For all we know, there might be settler-derived *leftists today demonizing the native aristocracy for clinging to their unearned privileges and their many square-miles of unused wilderness, thereby depriving the common man of cheap land to build homes and grow crops on.

No reservations, but princely states of Sachems and Sagamores instead of Maharajahs and Nawabs. :D
 
In reply to Westphalian, I agree with most of what you wrote. However, assuming that the Old World diseases existed in the Americas from the Ice Age forward, I do not see how the demographics of the Americas would be different. They would simply not be susceptible to the diseases that came with the Europeans.

Certainly the American societies of today would look very different. A world without the United States as we know it would be very different.
 
In reply to Westphalian, I agree with most of what you wrote. However, assuming that the Old World diseases existed in the Americas from the Ice Age forward, I do not see how the demographics of the Americas would be different. They would simply not be susceptible to the diseases that came with the Europeans.

Certainly the American societies of today would look very different. A world without the United States as we know it would be very different.

If those diseases were endemic in the New World it would drastically affect migration patterns and the development of civilizations. Yeah, it'll butterfly away the USA, but it'll also butterfly away the Aztecs, the Olmecs, the Inca, the Mayan. The Americas Columbus discovers will be leagues different than OTL, and yes, that'll probably include demographics.
 
If those diseases were endemic in the New World it would drastically affect migration patterns and the development of civilizations. Yeah, it'll butterfly away the USA, but it'll also butterfly away the Aztecs, the Olmecs, the Inca, the Mayan. The Americas Columbus discovers will be leagues different than OTL, and yes, that'll probably include demographics.

And even if we accept, for literary reason, that the native nations develop as OTL until 1492, the native cultures north of the Aztecs will still be unrecognizable different. Just look at all those southern Appalachean and Mississipian countries De Soto marched through. They will survive, instead of getting wiped out by the pox his men brought with them.
 
you guys need to read "Guns, Germs and Steel"

smallpox and its derivatives are directly from the domestication of cattle. No domestication of cattle, and you don't have that disease or immunity from it. There were no native cattle in the Americas during or after the Ice Age.

Influenza comes from pigs or domesticated poultry originally, and North American native pigs were not domesticated because they are impressively vicious creatures. There are varieties of birds that could have been domesticated however

Malaria and Yellow Fever are from tropical Africa, so getting them to the Americas requires oceanic travel and surviving infected humans to pass it on to the local mosquitoes and thus more humans. This is a possibility (Phoenicians potentially)

As we have no idea how the Gourd got from Africa to South America, not an unreasonable one actually.

The Plague is endemic to Mongolia and the high desert part of the Gobi desert. It is now found in similar altitudes in the US after it got here due to infected rats and infected humans from China in the late 19th Century. If the Japanese or Chinese discover North America, and particularly settle around San Francisco or at least make an extended visit, then perhaps it could spread out along the lower mountains of western North America (it requires a specific aridity and temperature range for survival)
 
If the native have a resistance than it could give them a better chance. Even in OTL various tribe where able to adopt European weapons with their own tactics to great effectiveness. The thing is the Natives saw the Europeans as other tribes but not really their until some were forced in King Philip's War. Even with a larger population that is still an obstacle towards resistance, in fact you might less tensions as their is less land for the European's, well the English/British to get.
 
How and why? Earlier contact, by Norse explorers, Basque fishermen or Irish monks bringing the deseases over?
Or the same diseases as in the Old World being common in the Amaericas since the last Ice Age?
I mean, the Norse bringing the worst diseases is nearly impossible because of their small population base - Iceland first got smallpox only centuries after Vinland was gone, and the virus didn't stay because there were too few Icelanders. Basques and Irish might be feasible but I strongly doubt it. Diseases coming across the Bering during the Ice Age is also difficult since many of the diseases we are familiar with are relatively very new.



Longer than OTL, but if the main difference is the presence of those germs, than the colonists still have the advantages of horses, domesticated cattle, pigs, sheep and goats, ironworking, firearms and a more sophisticated societal organization. To name but a few.
With no disease the Incas definitely survive Pizarro, and then it can adopt these European technologies. The Aztecs are probably too unstable to surge for long, but if they collapse back into city-states northern Mesoamerica will take centuries again to conquer. It's not as if those techs are biologically limited to Europeans! After all the Akan states in modern-day Ghana had the newest European weaponry well into the 19th century.

And even if we accept, for literary reason, that the native nations develop as OTL until 1492, the native cultures north of the Aztecs will still be unrecognizable different. Just look at all those southern Appalachean and Mississipian countries De Soto marched through. They will survive, instead of getting wiped out by the pox his men brought with them.
FYI the collapse of Mississippian societies was happening before De Soto if Cherokee histories are to be trusted, and doubt remains about whether De Soto actually was that responsible or not. At least four Mississippian entities survied in the 17th century, mind you, and none of them ended up that well.
 
you guys need to read "Guns, Germs and Steel"
Most New World historians dislike Diamond's disease argument, mainly because it's a dubious one. The majority of new diseases today, from HIV to ebola, do not come from domestic animals, and many major killers in the past also come from wild animals.

Smallpox and its derivatives are directly from the domestication of cattle. No domestication of cattle, and you don't have that disease or immunity from it. There were no native cattle in the Americas during or after the Ice Age.
The variola virus comes from a West African type of rodent millenniums before cattle domestication: http://m.pnas.org/content/104/40/15787.full
 
The variola virus comes from a West African type of rodent millenniums before cattle domestication: http://m.pnas.org/content/104/40/15787.full

That doesn't change the underlying parameters of the scenario. Regardless of where the original source of variola was, it was never in America, and there was no reservoir in America to keep it present for a long time (no humans with resistances, no domestic cattle to provide their own strain).

In fact I just don't see how you can bring smallpox to America and sustain it there before some kind of Eurasian settlers. It's probably easier to just get rid of variola altogether with a POD that predates any human civilization we would recognize.
 
In fact I just don't see how you can bring smallpox to America and sustain it there before some kind of Eurasian settlers. It's probably easier to just get rid of variola altogether with a POD that predates any known human civilization.
Eurosio-African. But yes, that being said, you're right.
 
Eurosio-African. But yes, that being said, you're right.

Yes, of course. North African settlers would do it too.

I actually just finished reading your link and there it suggests there may have been a related virus present in rodents in highland South America at the time of contact (potentially, because apparently it's not settled). Nonetheless that's potentially something - actual natural variolation. If it was indeed present, it didn't stop the conquests OTL, of course, but if it was spread to coastal regions the key period of *European exploration and conquest would be a lot trickier, and then you can probably find a good place to start a plausible timeline.
 
I want to thank everyone for the interesting discussion.

I have seen the book "Guns, Germs and Steel", but never read it. I will put it on my reading list. Thank you Galveston Bay.

It seems a little ASB to have Old World diseases in the Americas prior to European settlement and conquest unless you have some very early PODs. Perhaps more aggressive Norse, Chinese and Pre-Columbian exploration could get it done, along with an earlier introduction of horses and cattle. The Great Plains tribes developed into some of the finest light cavalry in the world, if they already existed that would make things interesting for potential settlers looking for land already claimed!

I always wondered what would happen if America was discovered, say by refugees fleeing the collapse of the Roman Empire. Stranger things have happened. Desperate Roman citizens and soldiers leave Europe on a small fleet of ships, destination unknown but just sailing west and hoping for the best. They survive to land on the coast of North American. Then what happens? I have always thought that would make a good story.
 
Most New World historians dislike Diamond's disease argument, mainly because it's a dubious one. The majority of new diseases today, from HIV to ebola, do not come from domestic animals, and many major killers in the past also come from wild animals.


The variola virus comes from a West African type of rodent millenniums before cattle domestication: http://m.pnas.org/content/104/40/15787.full

The problem with that is that both HIV and Ebola are from tropical Africa and spread because of improved communications to that region. Thus neither the New World or Eurasia had access to them pre late 20th Century. Really though it boils down to the fact that increased risk for diseases like polio, HIV, Cancer and others comes because the majority of humans are living long enough to catch them now more than they not being present before. Especially Cancer.

As to the variola virus, true, but as it did not spread to humans or become a standard disease threat at any point, while we know conclusively that Cowpox is related sufficiently to Small pox to have been a viable immunization agent, I would assume reasonably that domesticated cattle is the source for small pox.
 
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