European Butterfly Drift: 1214-1237

Or, what to do in Europe before it becomes directly affected by my main POD...

Well, this is for my Empires of the East timeline, in which I have Genghis Khan dying in 1214. Now this doesn't have too much of an effect on Europe until 1237, when the lack of the Mongol invasions of Eastern Europe start to really change things. But I don't want Europe to be stuck in some sort of butterfly net, with everything still happening exactly the same as OTL. On the other hand, I don't want to throw in major PODs into Europe, either. What I want is a butterfly drift. By this I mean that things remain pretty recognizable for at least a few decades, but at the same time, the events in Europe slowly diverge from their OTL versions, by virtue of simply being in another universe. Births, deaths, marriages... as the years pass, things become more and more different from OTL.

So, any ideas of some minor things I can play around with in this time period, that will have effects that slowly increase in magnitude?
 
Louis VIII of France: Could live longer. OTL he died young at 39 in 1226.

Alexander II of Scotland: Could have had more kids, or only a daughter.

Charles of Anjou: Might die young, or the brother intended to get Anjou survives and he gets (As intended by Louis) nothing, entering the Church instead.

Emperor Frederick II: Anything about his children or marriages.

The Babenburgs of Austria: Different sons live versus dying.

The 1214-1237 period isn't long enough for sizable changes (without working on more in depth PODs), but these are some things that come to mind.
 
Wikipedia said:
In 1215, the English barons rebelled in the First Barons' War against the unpopular King John of England (1199–1216). The barons offered the throne to Prince Louis, who landed unopposed on the Isle of Thanet in England at the head of an army on 21 May 1216. There was little resistance when the prince entered London and at St Paul's Cathedral, Louis was proclaimed King with great pomp and celebration in the presence of all of London. Even though he was not crowned, many nobles, as well as King Alexander II of Scotland (1214–49) for his English possessions, gathered to give homage.

On 14 June 1216, Louis captured Winchester and soon controlled over half of the English kingdom. But just when it seemed that England was his, King John's death in October 1216 caused many of the rebellious barons to desert Louis in favour of John's nine-year-old son, Henry III.

With William Marshall acting as regent, a call for the English "to defend our land" against the French led to a reversal of fortunes on the battlefield. After his army was beaten at Lincoln on 20 May 1217, and his naval forces (led by Eustace the Monk) were defeated off the coast of Sandwich on 24 August 1217, he was forced to make peace on English terms.

The principal provisions of the Treaty of Lambeth were an amnesty for English rebels, Louis to undertake not to attack England again, and 10,000 marks to be given to Louis. The effect of the treaty was that Louis agreed he had never been the legitimate King of England.
An interesting possibility might be having John not dying of dysentery and Louis VIII of France (well, before he becomes king of France) being able to successfully claim the British crown. I'm not sure I want such big changes in Europe so early, but what interesting consequences might it have?
 
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An interesting possibility might be having John not dying of dysentery and Louis VIII of France (well, before he becomes king of France) being able to successfully claim the British crown. I'm not sure I want such big changes in Europe so early, but what interesting consequences might it have?

Probably a hassle and a bother. Louis is going to have trouble juggling France and England, at best.
 
Okay. If it doesn't mean a long-term union of the English and French thrones is likely, it seems like a better option to have. When Louis defeats John and becomes king, I can have Henry III (with William Marshall) flee to Ireland, and later return to claim his throne. I'll look more into such a possibility...
 
One interesting question about Eastern Europe is whether or not the absence of the Mongols means that southwest Russia (IOTL Galicia-Volhynia aka West-Ukraine) might start continuing a process of providing an actual cultural counterbalance to northeastern Russia. As I remember it before the Mongol conquest both regions were beginning their own cultural development, and if the broader East-Slavic states wind up developing thus then it's quite possible that even in a short term one might see the establishment of two Russian traditions that ultimately combine in a very different fashion from the rise of Moscow IOTL. Different of course in this case is not at all meaning "better" necessarily.
 
Galicia-Volhynia had the tendency to catholicize, I think it is more possible to happen if the Mongols did not invade.
 
Interesting you should bring up Galicia-Volhynia, because I have plans for it. Without the Mongols weakening the Rus and the Lithuanian not able to take advantage of this, I'm planning on having Galicia-Volhynia as the major power in Eastern Europe (roughly equivalent in size and power to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth at its height). See the main discussion thread of this timeline for more information.

I was planning on having it remain an Orthodox power, and influencing Lithuania to become Orthodox as well.
But I am intrigued. Tell me more about this "tendency to Catholicize."
 
Poland is Galicia-Volhynia's western neighbor. Assuming Lithuania still retained its pagan religion or gone Orthodox, or gone Catholic, Galicia-Volhynia would be obsessed with maintaining good relations with the Holy See. Also, without the Mongol invasion, the Balkans would be a bit more stable, though we're unsure of the Cumans' fate. Though Moscow would never be founded ITTL, Vladimir-Sudzal or Novgorod could unite the Rus' lands.
 
Poland is Galicia-Volhynia's western neighbor. Assuming Lithuania still retained its pagan religion or gone Orthodox, or gone Catholic, Galicia-Volhynia would be obsessed with maintaining good relations with the Holy See. Also, without the Mongol invasion, the Balkans would be a bit more stable, though we're unsure of the Cumans' fate. Though Moscow would never be founded ITTL, Vladimir-Sudzal or Novgorod could unite the Rus' lands.

Why would they be obsessed with maintaining good relations with the Holy See more than any other Russian principality?

I can see it being used for strategic advantage, but not a must-do.
 
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