European Borders After a Cuban Missile War

There have been plenty of threads discussing the likely ramifications of 1962's Cuban Missile Crisis spiraling into a full nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. While I'm not an expert in the technical matters relevant to such a discussion, I can glean from such threads that the most likely outcome seems to be one where...

1) The United States is mostly or completely unscathed by the conflict, given the massive advantages that they enjoyed over the Soviet Union at the time.

2) Western European countries aligned with the United States (the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, etc) take moderate to severe amounts of damage, but ultimately survive as functional states.

3) The Soviet Union and most of the rest of the Warsaw Pact suffer horrendous levels of military and civilian casualties and are effectively ended as coherent entities.

While such an event would have myriad political, economic, and social effects for the entire globe, I do note that the United States would be left in an entirely hegemonic position on the world stage, one far more profound than what they enjoyed in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War, and will likely fully exploit that position.

With that in mind, after a few years of postwar chaos in much of Centrla and Eastern Europe, what would the continent's borders look like by 1970 in this timeline? Here are some thoughts...

  • Germany: Again assuming that West Germany survives the war as a functional state, not only is reunification with East Germany pushed up by a few decades, but I have to believe that this German state would push for a revision of the Oder-Neisse line and a return of the lands that had constituted their 1937 eastern borders (i.e. Silesia, Pomerania, East Prussia, etc) from Poland and the former Soviet Union. The West German government had yet to recognize the Oder-Neisse line as valid, and expellees from the aforementioned areas still formed an influential lobby in German politics. Furthermore, Poland itself would likely be badly damaged by such a war. I could see the United States acquiescing and granting these borders to Germany, and if there are enough Poles left to seriously complain, Washington might compensate them with a return of some or all of the pre-1939 eastern territories (i.e. Kresy) that they lost to the Soviet Union.
  • Poland/the Baltics: Poland and the former Soviet republics in the Baltics will be badly damaged by such a war - so much so that there might not be enough people in some of those areas to build a coherent state around afterwards. In such a scenario, might the United States form some sort of federation of Poland, the Baltics, perhaps Belarus (essentially a revived Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth)?
  • The USSR: Much of European Russia will likely be reduced to a post-apocalyptic wasteland in such a scenario, but on paper, how might the United States try to organize this territory (beyond giving some land to other states - as aforementioned, Poland could get some land, and perhaps Finland would as well)? It is probably a given that Ukraine, the Caucasus republics, and Central Asia will get independence, but might other peoples in less damaged parts of the former get their own states as well, de jure or de facto? For instance, the Chechens, the Kalmyks, etc.
Anything else I might have missed?
 
but I have to believe that this German state would push for a revision of the Oder-Neisse line and a return of the lands that had constituted their 1937 eastern borders (i.e. Silesia, Pomerania, East Prussia, etc) from Poland and the former Soviet Union.

They wouldn't stop the 1937 border but would push for as much as the pre-1914 border as possible, This is assuming Britain and France don't try to stop them which is likely.
 
It is probably a given that Ukraine, the Caucasus republics, and Central Asia will get independence, but might other peoples in less damaged parts of the former get their own states as well, de jure or de facto? For instance, the Chechens, the Kalmyks, etc.
Ukraine would be badly hit. The Soviet Union will be filled with warlords.
 
The Balkans will be tons of fun, to the extent that the WP states there take a hit or two, and the "unifying" hand of the USSR is gone, there are lots of old memories and blood feuds. If either or Greece or Turkey sustains any significant damage, I just wonder if the undamaged side might not decide to make a move. If possible, I can certainly see Turkey making a move in to the Caucasus - Baku would be nice for them to get, but it will be a glowing hole in the ground, I don't think the US had much in Armenia or Georgia on the target list in 1962.
 
The Balkans will be tons of fun,
Tito is still alive so Yugoslavia will be stable for the time being, will try to annex Bulgaria.

If either or Greece or Turkey sustains any significant damage, I just wonder if the undamaged side might not decide to make a move.
If Turkey is hit, I imagine Greece will try to annex parts of Thrace and maybe Anatolia
 
The Balkans will be tons of fun, to the extent that the WP states there take a hit or two, and the "unifying" hand of the USSR is gone, there are lots of old memories and blood feuds. If either or Greece or Turkey sustains any significant damage, I just wonder if the undamaged side might not decide to make a move. If possible, I can certainly see Turkey making a move in to the Caucasus - Baku would be nice for them to get, but it will be a glowing hole in the ground, I don't think the US had much in Armenia or Georgia on the target list in 1962.

That said, I find it very likely that Istanbul and Ankara would get hit by one or two warheads in this scenario, as the Soviet Union was worried about American missiles in that country - and the former city being destroyed could eventually invite aggression from Greece or (if they survive the war mostly unscathed) Bulgaria toward Turkish Thrace at some point down the line.
 
That said, I find it very likely that Istanbul and Ankara would get hit by one or two warheads in this scenario, as the Soviet Union was worried about American missiles in that country ...

Soviet doctrine was to attack the military installations, the Jupiter missile sites in this case. Secondary could have been airbases the US might have used. Attacking a Turkish urban area would have made no sense to Red Army planners in tis context. There may have been collateral damage, depending on the actual target locations.

...
If Turkey is hit, I imagine Greece will try to annex parts of Thrace and maybe Anatolia

Anatolia had effectively been depopulated of Greeks after the 1920s defeat. I'm unsure why the Greeks would bother in this context.
 
Anatolia had effectively been depopulated of Greeks after the 1920s defeat. I'm unsure why the Greeks would bother in this context.
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They wouldn't stop the 1937 border but would push for as much as the pre-1914 border as possible, This is assuming Britain and France don't try to stop them which is likely.

True. On the other hand, in this scenario, do Britain and France really have the means to do anything but privately seethe at what the USA decrees?
 
True. On the other hand, in this scenario, do Britain and France really have the means to do anything but privately seethe at what the USA decrees?
I doubt the US would care much for helping Germany regain its World War 2 losses. So I view any eastern expansion as a Germany only thing
 
I doubt the US would care much for helping Germany regain its World War 2 losses. So I view any eastern expansion as a Germany only thing

There wouldn't have been many Germans left to make a Germany afterwards.
Remember, the joke was 'Villages are spaced two kilotons apart in West Germany'
 
Would it be so bad in 1962, as opposed to 1982?

The USSR had some 2800 Tactical Nuclear weapons who use is almost guaranteed in West German not including Western counterstrikes the Inter-German border is gonna be a radioactive death zone and it's likely most of Germany east of the Rhine is gonna be a defacto no man's land the FRG whatever is left of it is gonna be in no position to effectively rule over its territory let alone conduct any expansion
 
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