alternatehistory.com

The topic of this thread is to discuss the European alliance system that would most likely emerge after the success of the 1848 Revolutions, and also which major wars between two or more great powers would most likely occur, if any (possibly even a WWI equivalent, but not a given by any means).

Notable established facts ITTL include:

- France remains a liberal republic, the "June Days" and the Napoleonic takeover (or a Bourbon restoration) are averted.

- A series of military and political butterflies lead to successful liberal uprisings in Berlin and Vienna, the defeat of the reactionary elites in Prussia and Austria, and the victory of Hungarian and Italian liberals against the Habsburg forces.

- Greater Germany successfully unites as a federal liberal constitutional monarchy. Its territory includes the states of the German Confederation plus West-East Prussia, Southern Schleswig, and Burgenland, minus Trentino and the Austrian Littoral.

- Italy successfully unites as a federal liberal constitutional monarchy. Its territory includes the Italian states plus Lombardy-Veneto, Trentino, and the Austrian Littoral.

- Hungary is established as an independent liberal constitutional monarchy. Its territory includes the lands of the Kingdom of Hungary, without Croatia-Slavonia and Burgenland.

- Croatia-Slavonia (with Dalmatia) becomes an independent state.

- A crippling illness of the Tsar and a series of liberal-national uprisings in Congress Poland, Finland, and the Danubian Principalities keep Russia busy and prevent it from helping the reactionaries in Germany, Italy, and the Habsburg Empire till it is too late. The Ottoman Empire experiences a similar situation in the Balkans.

- A Polish state is established in Krakow, Galicia, and most of Posen (Germany keeps the rest); Moldavia gets Bukovina.

- Germany defeats Denmark and gains Schleswig-Holstein, but later returns North Schleswig as a reconciliation compromise. The defeat triggers a liberal revolution in Denmark; this and Swedish support to Denmark during the war cause the unification of Scandinavia as a federal liberal constitutional monarchy.

- The Mexican-American War occurs much like OTL, but the USA annexes northern Mexico (up to the Tropic of Cancer). It later purchases Cuba. It is able to make a compromise with Britain by which it gains mainland Oregon County and Columbia District, but the UK keeps Vancouver Island. The American Civil War happens a few years earlier than OTL, but it still leads to to a total Union victory.
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