Europe without the Polish-Soviet War

BigBlueBox

Banned
It seems to me that the Polish-Soviet war was a mistake for Poland. An earlier post by @David T suggested that the Bolsheviks would have accepted Polish control over much of the Kresy without and fight. In my opinion, Brest, Grodno, and East Galicia are the only territories east of Curzon Line that would have been worth retaining. If Poland could have arranged a population transfer on which Poles would be sent to Poland and Ukrainians to the USSR that would have been even better for Poland’s internal stability.

Without the war against the Bolsheviks, Poland has a lot more opportunities to exploit in the crucial 1918-1921 period. More effort could be placed in into acquiring Upper Silesia from Germany, and possibly the rest of Posen, Masuria, and West Prussia. The rebels in Posen and Upper Silesia could have been provided with more equipment, as well as “volunteers” and “advisors”. Pro-Polish elements in Masuria and West Prussia could have been given more support. Maybe Poland could have even sent in its army to officially occupy its desired regions with the hope of presenting it as a fait accompli at Versailles. Even if Poland didn’t take any extreme measures, the referendums on disputed territories likely would have gone better for Poland without the Polish-Soviet war.

In regards to Czechoslovakia and Teschen, without the Polish-Soviet war Czechoslovakia would have no opportunity to attack Poland. The likely result is that the Entente organizes a plebiscite, which results the entirety of Teschen going to Poland.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but before the Polish-Soviet war the Polish military was in control of the Vilnius region. This gives Poland a great deal of leverage of Lithuania, with no Żeligowski's Mutiny to poison relations. If Poland just keeps Vilnius the relations will still be bad like OTL, but it’s possible that Vilnius could be granted to Lithuania in exchange for concessions like a military alliance or economic union.

Charles de Gaulle was part of the French military attaché to Poland during the war. What he witnessed there helped him come to the realization that mobile warfare was the future. Without the war, does he still make that realization? How does his career turn out?

For the Soviets, the civil war can be brought to a conclusion much earlier without the conflict with Poland. How much earlier though? Does Lenin live longer due to less stress, and if so, what are the effects on Soviet politics? How do the careers of Trotsky, Stalin, and Tukhachevsky turn out without the war? Does controlling more of Western Ukraine result in a bigger Ukrainian nationalism problem, and would a population exchange make that even worse?

Also, if Poland’s borders with Germany and the Soviet Union are both further west, then Germany would have far more to gain from a Molotov-Ribbentrop style agreement than the Soviets. Does this prevent the Soviets from coming to such an agreement?
 
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