The impact that the Ottoman Empire had on the course of European history was immense, both in the lands directly conquered by the Ottomans such as Greece and Bulgaria, and in lands not conquered - for instance, the Fall of Constantinople helped start the Age of Discovery as Western European powers sought new trade routes to East Asia, the strength of the Ottoman Empire in Central Europe may have indirectly fostered the rise of the Habsburgs as a counterweight, and the Ottoman-sanctioned slave trade in the Mediterranean left its own lingering effects. These are just the examples that I could think of off the top of my head.
But what if the Ottoman Empire had not risen? Indeed, what if no Turkish state was able to exert dominance over the Mediterranean Muslim world and conquer a substantial portion of Southeastern Europe? Let me establish two basic scenarios to that end...
But what if the Ottoman Empire had not risen? Indeed, what if no Turkish state was able to exert dominance over the Mediterranean Muslim world and conquer a substantial portion of Southeastern Europe? Let me establish two basic scenarios to that end...
- A fourteenth century point of divergence that preempts the rise of the House of Osman and allows the Byzantine Empire or some Greek-speaking successor state or states to muddle along in parts of Southeastern Europe and Anatolia for at least a few more centuries.
- A fifteenth century point of divergence, either before or shortly after the Fall of Constantinople, that sees Western European Crusaders, a local Christian power in the Balkans, or some combination thereof push the Ottoman Empire out of Southeastern Europe. This robs the Ottomans of much of the momentum necessary for some of their latest conquests elsewhere, relegating them to becoming, at best, a regional power in Anatolia. Examples includes a maximally successful Crusade of Varna leading to a series of Crusader states being established in the Balkans, or even an improbably lucky Vlad the Impaler somehow conquering vast swathes of previously Ottoman land and cementing his annexations.