Europe without the Ottoman Empire

The impact that the Ottoman Empire had on the course of European history was immense, both in the lands directly conquered by the Ottomans such as Greece and Bulgaria, and in lands not conquered - for instance, the Fall of Constantinople helped start the Age of Discovery as Western European powers sought new trade routes to East Asia, the strength of the Ottoman Empire in Central Europe may have indirectly fostered the rise of the Habsburgs as a counterweight, and the Ottoman-sanctioned slave trade in the Mediterranean left its own lingering effects. These are just the examples that I could think of off the top of my head.

But what if the Ottoman Empire had not risen? Indeed, what if no Turkish state was able to exert dominance over the Mediterranean Muslim world and conquer a substantial portion of Southeastern Europe? Let me establish two basic scenarios to that end...

  • A fourteenth century point of divergence that preempts the rise of the House of Osman and allows the Byzantine Empire or some Greek-speaking successor state or states to muddle along in parts of Southeastern Europe and Anatolia for at least a few more centuries.
  • A fifteenth century point of divergence, either before or shortly after the Fall of Constantinople, that sees Western European Crusaders, a local Christian power in the Balkans, or some combination thereof push the Ottoman Empire out of Southeastern Europe. This robs the Ottomans of much of the momentum necessary for some of their latest conquests elsewhere, relegating them to becoming, at best, a regional power in Anatolia. Examples includes a maximally successful Crusade of Varna leading to a series of Crusader states being established in the Balkans, or even an improbably lucky Vlad the Impaler somehow conquering vast swathes of previously Ottoman land and cementing his annexations.
In any case, how might we expect European history to unfold without a powerful Ottoman Empire?
 
At this point, Egypt is the most powerful Muslim state in the Europe-Mediterranean area, which has a stranglehold over the spice trade coming in via the Indian Ocean.

As long as someone has this much control over the trade, other countries are going to be jealous, and go out exploring for alternate routes for themselves. (Which is what Portugal did IOTL.)

Also, is Anatolia supposed to be under a single Turkish state, or split between several?

As to the Balkans, well, that depends on when this take place. Hungary would be a (potentially) significant power in the Balkans.
 

gurgu

Banned
Well, no ottomans means no unfied anatolya( worse than balkans at the time) and the mamaluks as undisputed rulers of the region until mid 1400/ early 1500.
Without the the ottomans fighting the byzantines they would keep foothold on turkey region and perhaps try to reconquer it if the paleologos sill take power and make a mor stable government without killing between them...
Else if the ERE keeps the civil wars probably bulgaria or serbia would sooner or later reorganize and conquer it based on which period since the bulgarians had a big crisis with the shishman ruler( coutnry basically splitted in 1 major and 2 vassal almost indipendent) while Serbia after the win streak of stephan uros crippled apart;
so basically without the ottomans i can see 4 options about the future balkans:
  1. battle royale between bulgaria, byzantium, serbia: the first to end the civil wars and stabilize the empire will rule, but has to "accept the other 2 cultures" like basil I did with the bulgarians after conquering them or else there would be uprising until freedom
  2. mamaluks decide to go mad man an conquer the anatolian region then invade the balkans( very difficult to happen)
  3. polish hungarian union conquers the area creating a catholic OE going from costantinopole to danzig to dubrovnik/ragusa
  4. venice and genoa slowsly occupy the greek region( war for costantinople) while bulgaria and serbia take the remaining then go back to point 1
sadly the only way to see a big balkan state is to have a strong ruler that is able to put differences aside and integrate slowly the other groups , the only i can resemble were kajolan and iwan asen for Bulgaria or Costantine XII(byzantium) in '400 who was a pretty good ruler in morea before taking the imperial crown and die in 1453

based on who rules in 1500 we might have a renewed/slav ERE or a polish empire( only orthodox could inherith the title of basileus) both the will seek expansion in anatolian region.
Later i'll reply with a Bulgarian win situation based on what i just wrote
 
Most important effect of no Ottoman Empire is that Europeans need to find another word to describe a padded footstool.
 

Vuu

Banned
Most important effect of no Ottoman Empire is that Europeans need to find another word to describe a padded footstool.
A terrifying prospect indeed

I started writing a little TL where slight changes result in the Serbian Empire surviving and wrecking the Ottomans, but I'm holding it off for the moment, and will probably do a rewrite later. It basically results in Serbia becoming the medieval equivalent of a superpower (though I admit it right here, that wasn't my intention with the TL, but a means to an end, the end being basically "let's pull a What Madness Is This? but starting from a medieval PoD, hence why I immediately had the Greek Fire accidentally rediscovered)
 
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