Europe without American colonization

I'll get it done, I'll get it done, I'll get it done, I swear.:eek:

Short version: Spanish hit the Maghreb hard, India and China both take it on the chin, and wars everywhere in Europe go up an notch in length and scale because population pressures are so much more intense.

The lack of precious metals isn't such a problem (although the loss of all that American silver will turn off the main current of trade in the early modern era, the big flow from America to Europe through the middle east to India and China). The Europeans will just have to (and probably will) fall back on the traditional way of opening closed markets.
 
I'll get it done, I'll get it done, I'll get it done, I swear.:eek:

Short version: Spanish hit the Maghreb hard, India and China both take it on the chin, and wars everywhere in Europe go up an notch in length and scale because population pressures are so much more intense.

The lack of precious metals isn't such a problem (although the loss of all that American silver will turn off the main current of trade in the early modern era, the big flow from America to Europe through the middle east to India and China). The Europeans will just have to (and probably will) fall back on the traditional way of opening closed markets.

Portugal's population increased during 16-19th centuries where will that population go and what will happen to castille?
 
Portugal's population increased during 16-19th centuries where will that population go and what will happen to castille?

Castille will join Aragon as per OTL (1492 is too late to change that). Portugal's population, like the rest of Europe's, will be held relatively in check by longer, bloodier wars (not least because there is less of an outlet for religious tensions) more famines, and larger plagues. (My model here is Ancient Greece, where even some pretty intensive colonization efforts didn't keep the homeland from riding the ragged edge of Malthusian catastrophe, with the end result that their wars were longer and bloodier than might have been expected, and their plagues larger; and, like it did for Greece's neighbours, the lack of two by-Old-World-standards empty continents to fill up is going to bode pretty badly for Europe's neighbours.)

How will Islam fare in the region?

In the Maghreb, not well. Spain isn't going to be the economic superpower it was at this time IOTL, but it doesn't have conquering half the planet to distract it either; my guess is that they'll hack their way up to a point where the Ottomans can defend better than they can attack, and Hispanize everything behind that. Morrocco through to Tunisia, maybe.
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
In the Maghreb, not well. Spain isn't going to be the economic superpower it was at this time IOTL, but it doesn't have conquering half the planet to distract it either; my guess is that they'll hack their way up to a point where the Ottomans can defend better than they can attack, and Hispanize everything behind that. Morrocco through to Tunisia, maybe.
So, Roman Catholic North Africa then?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
In the Maghreb, not well. Spain isn't going to be the economic superpower it was at this time IOTL, but it doesn't have conquering half the planet to distract it either; my guess is that they'll hack their way up to a point where the Ottomans can defend better than they can attack, and Hispanize everything behind that. Morrocco through to Tunisia, maybe.

I disagree Spain will be a economical superpower to even greater extent than in OTL, many of the product grown in Caribbian primary sugar can in Europe only be grown in Spanish and Ottoman territies, Spain will lack the enourmous supply of precious metals, but it will create a incentment to develop better control over the finanses, and keeping the mechants happy (so no pissing off the Dutch). The Spain which enter the 18th century may look a lot more like France.

In Europe some of the primary winners are the Austrian Habsburgs without their large silver production in Bohemia and Tyrol rendered worthless.

In Netherlands if they stay united, we see a greater focus on production rather than trade, through trade stay important. That mean that the Hanse may stay stronger and more relevant. Through we may see the Danes take over their markeds.
 
I disagree Spain will be a economical superpower to even greater extent than in OTL, many of the product grown in Caribbian primary sugar can in Europe only be grown in Spanish and Ottoman territies, Spain will lack the enourmous supply of precious metals, but it will create a incentment to develop better control over the finanses, and keeping the mechants happy (so no pissing off the Dutch). The Spain which enter the 18th century may look a lot more like France.

In Europe some of the primary winners are the Austrian Habsburgs without their large silver production in Bohemia and Tyrol rendered worthless.

In Netherlands if they stay united, we see a greater focus on production rather than trade, through trade stay important. That mean that the Hanse may stay stronger and more relevant. Through we may see the Danes take over their markeds.
What will happen to occitans and catalans in this timeline?
 

ninebucks

Banned
Spain was never an economic superpower, not even at the height of its empire. The rapid acquisition of the Americas was unsustainable and everyone knew the Spanish economy would crash hard when it ran out of land to conquer. Meanwhile, the empire as it existed was a shared enterprise between the Spanish state and commercial interests in France and England, with the latter reaping the profits and the former shouldering the risks.

Without discovering the Americas, Peninsular Spain may be saved from the centuries of economic subordination from its northern neighbours.
 
I have to agree with ninebucks. Spain was rich but not an economic super-power. Reconquista wars meant that Spain was really did have to depend a lot on sword-nobility (who had tax exemptions so they could spend money fighting Muslims) and you needed farmers to support them. Thus, middle-class development was really set back (except for the Jews but they were booted out of course, oops). Once that was over all that gold and silver from the Americans actually hurt. Because they had lots of money Spain didn't NEED to develop a middle or merchant class to finance itself. As gold/silver poured into the European market, it devalued the currency. It did result in some interesting Spanish economic philosophy to codify just why more money != endless wealth. The silver glut also hammered the Ottoman economy through to a lesser degree as Sulemain's grandkids had to deal with it. So with more time to entrench the economic privileges of an increasingly reactionary and useless warrior class, a glut of precious metals that drove down their price, and no need to develop a middle class until they were far behind it was simply unsustainable.

I still think they'd be behind France and England in economic development, but it won't be nearly as bad without the gold and silver prop. That is, it's still going to be hard in Spain but recovery will set in more quickly by necessity and their rivals won't be as far behind. You'd get a better Spain in the long term, but it might not ever actually be the world power it became for a time. If you really want Spain to not discover the new world you need a union with Portugal. Then they'll find the sea-route to the east via Africa and not see the need to sponsor crazy voyages west.

Avoiding the economic trap of Spain was a major concern of my TL.
 
Yeah - but the money boom had one good effect on Spain: it kicked it from late medieval feudalism to an early modern money economy pretty much overnight, and gave it a well-ahead-of-its-time paid professional army to boot. It made it pretty damn uncompetitive as well, of course, but that's better than sliding away like Poland.
 
Yeah - but the money boom had one good effect on Spain: it kicked it from late medieval feudalism to an early modern money economy pretty much overnight, and gave it a well-ahead-of-its-time paid professional army to boot.

Well yes. The money made Spain a world power--but it screwed it in the long term. It's possible that a union with Portugal with Castille-Aragon would result in Spanish control of Morocco. The Ottomans never exercised authority there and even Algeria was problematic at times. Still if Spain-on-Steroids is avoided, I'm not sure how they'll get into a position to threaten Algeria enough that they call in the Sultan for help as they did IOTL. Morocco and down the coasts of Africa is the best bet I think.

ED: Poland was in the crap position because of it's well, position. Right smack dab in the middle of hostile forces. Spain was basically at the ass-end of the world until it became powerful before it suddenly became the center so they got a sheltered spot to get strong, then a huge money boost as their geographic position switched to massive importance.

ED2: Yes, it made Spain a much more modern economy but without the ability to sustain it. So the choice for Spain was probably Regional Power Status for a very long time, or a period of World Power Status with a massive crash and disintegration into basket case with a recovery but ultimate grouping into the comparatively more-troubled PIGS of the EU (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain).
 
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Unless Europe is stuck in the middle ages, this is ASB. Europeans looking for fish west of iceland or travelling around Africa to reach Asia are going to inevitably run into America. At best you can delay contact for a century or two. A more plausible thread might be "WI no great American conquests till 1600" or something.

Bruce
 

ninebucks

Banned
How would the Berbers be in that timeline?

IIRC, Berbers were raiding many of the West African states at this time. With a concerted Spanish influence on their side of the Mediterranean, this may push more Berbers further south. This may result in some W African kingdoms falling outright to Berber rule, and a number of Berberised states may come into being along the Niger River.

This will be a source of warfare in West Africa, but compared to OTL, the region will be much more peaceful. Without the Triangular Trade there will be no incentive for West Africans to engage in constant slave wars.
 
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