Europe-Only WWI (Redrawing Europe)

[papermario]

Hi everyone!

I'm working on a timeline where America's influence is severely diminished on a global scale (successful C.S.A., along America's strong desires not to get involved in European affairs). Thus, when WWI breaks out, it simply becomes another pan-European war. I don't really mind which side wins, I just want to know how you would redraw Europe after the war. Minorities were both favored and ignored in OTL, and I think a Europe-only war would mean that the victorious side would set up nations according to its own interests a little more than OTL. Just let me know which side wins and how they redraw the map. Thanks!

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Hi everyone!

I'm working on a timeline where America's influence is severely diminished on a global scale (successful C.S.A., along America's strong desires not to get involved in European affairs). Thus, when WWI breaks out, it simply becomes another pan-European war. I don't really mind which side wins, I just want to know how you would redraw Europe after the war. Minorities were both favored and ignored in OTL, and I think a Europe-only war would mean that the victorious side would set up nations according to its own interests a little more than OTL. Just let me know which side wins and how they redraw the map. Thanks!

Without the US the Entente cannot afford to fight the war, as France has to import EVERYTHING and needs all the money it can get. Russia cannot get loans either, except what the Brits can finance.

Germany wins the long war, taking Belgium, the rest of Lorraine in France, Luxembourg, Poland (set up as a puppet state with a Habsburg monarch), Lithuania, and Courland, while the Austrians get North Serbia and parts of West Ukraine. Ukraine is an puppet state. Bulgaria gets South Serbia (Macedonia), Romania gets Bessarabia. The Ottomans get the Caucasus region, but lose the Arabian penninsula and probably Shia Iraq.

Africa gets interesting, as Germany loses all her colonies, but may get the Belgian Congo, I'll leave that up to you.

 

[papermario]

Thanks for the help. I had considered setting up Poland-Lithuania again (I doubt they would stick together, but it would be fun if they did.) I would think for the most part that Germany and co. would win, but I also don't mind if people alter the combatants a little (ex. an empowered France). I'd like to see scenarios from a British-French-Russian victory too.

I never thought about the Belgian Congo going to Germany-good idea! Maybe, in exchange for greater autonomy, they would cede it to Germany...

 

[Kelenas]

If Germany wins the war, though, they wouldn't lose their colonies; at least not the African ones. France and Russia might get punished in the peace treaties, but the situation between Germany and Britain would quickly descent into a stalemate, with either nation unable to seriously harm the other, so a white peace would be a likely result, in my opinion.

- Kelenas

 

[papermario]

If Germany wins the war, though, they wouldn't lose their colonies; at least not the African ones. France and Russia might get punished in the peace treaties, but the situation between Germany and Britain would quickly descent into a stalemate, with either nation unable to seriously harm the other, so a white peace would be a likely result, in my opinion.

- Kelenas

True. I know with America out of the picture, it pretty much becomes a stalemate. I just wondered what nations you guys think would pop up in Europe after a standard Entente victory and a standard Central Powers victory.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The British can hold German colonies hostage indefinitely, but perhaps for greater Belgian freedom some can be traded back?

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

What year is this victory going to be in? On similar threads of no US involvement I've read that the British blockade played a vital role in how the war would end. Would Germany really get everything it wanted?

As for A-H and Serbia, how likely is it that they're going to annex huge chunks of it? Wouldn't they rather take Hungarian majority regions from northern Serbia, give Macedonia to Bulgaria and then place a pro-A-H monarch in charge of what's left? A puppet rump Serbia seems much more useful in the long term than more Serbs in the empire.

 

[Snowstalker]

Without the US the Entente cannot afford to fight the war, as France has to import EVERYTHING and needs all the money it can get. Russia cannot get loans either, except what the Brits can finance.

Germany wins the long war, taking Belgium, the rest of Lorraine in France, Luxembourg, Poland (set up as a puppet state with a Habsburg monarch), Lithuania, and Courland, while the Austrians get North Serbia and parts of West Ukraine. Ukraine is an puppet state. Bulgaria gets South Serbia (Macedonia), Romania gets Bessarabia. The Ottomans get the Caucasus region, but lose the Arabian penninsula and probably Shia Iraq.

Africa gets interesting, as Germany loses all her colonies, but may get the Belgian Congo, I'll leave that up to you.

The Germans are definitely annexing Lithuania, the western parts of Russian Poland, and Luxembourg, but I'm not sure about all of Lorraine (not that many Germans) or Belgium. I know nothing about the Courland you speak of, other than it's in Latvia.

Serbia and Montenegro will probably be Austrian puppet states-they'll only lose land to Bulgaria (Macedonia). Ukraine will be a puppet state, yes, but you're forgetting Belarus and the Baltic Duchy as puppets as well.

 

[papermario]

The year makes no difference to me. Come up with any scenario you want. The British blockade plus a successful Germany just means more mixed results in Europe-and more mixed results in Europe means more nations for me to play around with!

 

[stevep]

papermario

A lot would depend on the butterflies. A major change going back to the 1860's is going to have a hell of a lot of them.

However assuming that some combination of events means that WWI starts ~1914 with the same sides and basic military and economic powers. If so the odds would be on a limited German victory. They are likely to defeat Russia as OTL and probably force a French armistice. Possibly also Britain if the latter doesn't introduce convoying. However its likely to be a very costly victory for them as well as for the allied powers. It might also be a short lived one as holding their gains could become a serious economic and social handicap.

Even presuming the historical set-up it only needs a small change or two and you could have an allied victory instead. Again it would probably be ruinous for the victors as well as the defeated, unless it ends fairly early. Furthermore, unless a stable Russian state survives, such a victory is likely to be a prolonged truce.

Steve

 

[papermario]

papermario

A lot would depend on the butterflies. A major change going back to the 1860's is going to have a hell of a lot of them.

However assuming that some combination of events means that WWI starts ~1914 with the same sides and basic military and economic powers. If so the odds would be on a limited German victory. They are likely to defeat Russia as OTL and probably force a French armistice. Possibly also Britain if the latter doesn't introduce convoying. However its likely to be a very costly victory for them as well as for the allied powers. It might also be a short lived one as holding their gains could become a serious economic and social handicap.

Even presuming the historical set-up it only needs a small change or two and you could have an allied victory instead. Again it would probably be ruinous for the victors as well as the defeated, unless it ends fairly early. Furthermore, unless a stable Russian state survives, such a victory is likely to be a prolonged truce.

Steve

I know a change in the 1860's will alter a great deal. My timeline also has French intervention in the Austro-Prussian War resulting in a Austrian victory, and then France barely defeats Prussia in the Franco-Prussian War. A Second Austro-Prussian War occurs, with a Prussian victory. There's also an Anglo-American War. Then a pan-European war takes place. This is the second pan-European war. I have set up a timeline so this war happens, I knew it would be hard to decide the victor and open to a large number of butterflies, I just didn't want to reveal too much because I wanted pointers on what would probably happen if either side won.

 

[Helios Ra]

I know a change in the 1860's will alter a great deal. My timeline also has French intervention in the Austro-Prussian War resulting in a Austrian victory, and then France barely defeats Prussia in the Franco-Prussian War. A Second Austro-Prussian War occurs, with a Prussian victory. There's also an Anglo-American War. Then a pan-European war takes place. This is the second pan-European war. I have set up a timeline so this war happens, I knew it would be hard to decide the victor and open to a large number of butterflies, I just didn't want to reveal too much because I wanted pointers on what would probably happen if either side won.

If Prussia loses its war with Austria, particularly if France intervenes, there's really no reason for it to fight another war with France. I doubt Bismarck would be dumb enough to pick a fight against another power after just losing to that power a few years ago.

 

[papermario]

If Prussia loses its war with Austria, particularly if France intervenes, there's really no reason for it to fight another war with France. I doubt Bismarck would be dumb enough to pick a fight against another power after just losing to that power a few years ago.

I see your point, but I'm trying to delay Prussia's rise a bit. I felt that if the Austro- and Franco-Prussian Wars had worked out differently, there would be more wars between the big powers in Europe, and this "WWI" would just be seen as another pan-European war.

I meant no offense to Bismarck.

 

[Helios Ra]

I see your point, but I'm trying to delay Prussia's rise a bit. I felt that if the Austro- and Franco-Prussian Wars had worked out differently, there would be more wars between the big powers in Europe, and this "WWI" would just be seen as another pan-European war.

I meant no offense to Bismarck.

You have to consider what would happen if Austria and France won a war with Prussia, particularly given that it was a war for supremacy over Germany to some degree or another. Austria may be interested in taking back Silesia, Saxony some of it's old land, and France a border on the Rhine. If any of those (or the former and latter at least) could be imposed, Prussia would be in no state to fight with France. I have doubts that either country would be concerned with Prussian revanchism.
Italy fought in the war with Austria, I don't know much about that front of the war, but they'll be affected by an Austro-French (Franco-Austrian?) victory without a doubt.

It might be more believable for the future wars to be won with the help of Russia or the UK. Of course, this makes your alt-WWI less likely to have the same alliances.

 

[papermario]

You have to consider what would happen if Austria and France won a war with Prussia, particularly given that it was a war for supremacy over Germany to some degree or another. Austria may be interested in taking back Silesia, Saxony some of it's old land, and France a border on the Rhine. If any of those (or the former and latter at least) could be imposed, Prussia would be in no state to fight with France. I have doubts that either country would be concerned with Prussian revanchism.
Italy fought in the war with Austria, I don't know much about that front of the war, but they'll be affected by an Austro-French (Franco-Austrian?) victory without a doubt.

It might be more believable for the future wars to be won with the help of Russia or the UK. Of course, this makes your alt-WWI less likely to have the same alliances.

I do eventually involve Russia, and later Britain. For the Austro- and Franco-Prussian wars, the only goal was to delay an inevitable rise of Prussia. For Italy's part, they lose too-delaying their attempts to get Venetia. France also does get its border on the Rhine, and I have plenty of plans for Silesia. I didn't think about Saxony, though.

Here is my general plan-
Austro-Prussian War
*possible* Franco-Prussian War
Second Austro-Prussian War (Here's where I deal with Prussia being in no state to fight France, France stays out this time-resulting in a Prussian victory).
War of the Five Powers (brings Russia into the mix as an ally of France)
Anglo-French War (brings Britain in)
"WWI" [Britain switches to the French side by this time, and Austria-Hungary has been alienated enough by France to join with Prussia/Germany]