Europe In A Operation Downfall World

Assume that the US doesn't develop the Bomb till late 1946 [year late]

Operation Downfall goes ahead. With Both the US and Russia still involved in the Pacific -?What Happens to Europe?

Britain/Commonwealth has two Divisions involved in Operation Downfall, as well as troops in Indonesia [Independent Japanese Ally]
And France is in Indo China.
So I assume Lend Lease is still ongoing in place of the Marshall plan for Them.

But Europe has experienced a much larger pull down of American troops. So will there be a ""Marshall Plan"" for Europe.

With Russia still Involved in The Pacific, Will the '' Arrest '' of the Free Polish Government still take place when they return to Poland.

?Do Whe still Get NATO and then the Warsaw Pact? The EEC, and the EU?
 
Couple of brief notes.

If the POD is no Bomb, the war in Japan is not going to last far into 1946. Even if Downfall goes badly, by the end of 1945 the Americans will still own much of Kyushu, and the rest of Japan will be a starving wasteland. With the USSR in the war, Korea and Manchuria gone, the IJN at the bottom of the sea and no air force except a few kamikazes, even the Imperial high command would have to face reality.

The French wouldn't have been in Indochina; they had no way to get there, and the US wouldn't have spent resources on an amphibious invasion. Assuming another six months of war, the Thais would probably have switched sides, and a British force with some Free French auxiliaries would just be pushing into Cambodia.

I suspect the biggest effect on Europe will be American distraction.


Doug M.
 
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