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I'm reworking a timeline that involves a failed American revolution followed by a 2nd Revolution. The PoD is an American loss at Saratoga, which leads to the French not getting involved.

There is a general consensus that the French revolution is delayed. What I'm wondering is what will happen in the rest of Europe? What kind of major war is on the Horizon in Europe, what would most likely spark it?

What I'm most curious about is the fate of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. I have a tendency to believe that without a French revolution, the commonwealth would either survive to modern day, or at least survive longer. The May 3rd constitution of 1791 was inspired by the enlightenment, which frightened Prussia, Russia, and the Hapsburgs into partitioning Poland between the three of them.

My hypothesis is that without the May 3rd Constitution, then there is most likely no partition. In order for there to be no May 3rd constitution I believe you need to have a failed American revolution and no (or delayed) French revolution. Without good examples to follow, Polands government remains more conservative, leading to less need for a partition.

Does any of this make sense or am I completely off?
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