Europe in a Failed American Revolution TL

I'm reworking a timeline that involves a failed American revolution followed by a 2nd Revolution. The PoD is an American loss at Saratoga, which leads to the French not getting involved.

There is a general consensus that the French revolution is delayed. What I'm wondering is what will happen in the rest of Europe? What kind of major war is on the Horizon in Europe, what would most likely spark it?

What I'm most curious about is the fate of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. I have a tendency to believe that without a French revolution, the commonwealth would either survive to modern day, or at least survive longer. The May 3rd constitution of 1791 was inspired by the enlightenment, which frightened Prussia, Russia, and the Hapsburgs into partitioning Poland between the three of them.

My hypothesis is that without the May 3rd Constitution, then there is most likely no partition. In order for there to be no May 3rd constitution I believe you need to have a failed American revolution and no (or delayed) French revolution. Without good examples to follow, Polands government remains more conservative, leading to less need for a partition.

Does any of this make sense or am I completely off?
 
I'm not sure you butterfly away the 1791 Constitution if there's no American, or French, Revolution. There were plenty of other republican, Enlightenment-inspired, states and revolutions in the period. The Corsican Republic, Revolt of Dutch Patriots, the Liège Revolution, the Brabant Revolution, the Haitian Revolution all preceded the 1791 Constitution and were independent of each other or the American or French Revolutions; the former two even preceded the American Revolution and so are well established prior to your proposed POD.
 
I'm reworking a timeline that involves a failed American revolution followed by a 2nd Revolution. The PoD is an American loss at Saratoga, which leads to the French not getting involved.

There is a general consensus that the French revolution is delayed. What I'm wondering is what will happen in the rest of Europe? What kind of major war is on the Horizon in Europe, what would most likely spark it?

Not convinced that a French crisis would have been delayed. It's quite likely another general European War would happen before 1789, as France was hankering for revenge from the Seven Years' War.

What I'm most curious about is the fate of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. I have a tendency to believe that without a French revolution, the commonwealth would either survive to modern day, or at least survive longer. The May 3rd constitution of 1791 was inspired by the enlightenment, which frightened Prussia, Russia, and the Hapsburgs into partitioning Poland between the three of them.

Surviving longer is possible, but modern day highly unlikely in my opinion. The commonwealth had an untenable political system, Russia dominated its elections to prevent any changes, and even if you get Russia out the way, Prussia will start intervening. Without the partitions, the most likely situation is gradual incorporation into Russia. Failing that, the next most likely situation is Prussia taking the place. Poland's best hope is that it gets conquered during a war, and then a European peace conference sets it up with more stable governance.
 
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