Europe in 1942 with USA still neutral

Lets say Japan never occupies southern Indochina, no oil embargo, no attack on USA/Brit/Dutch territories, no Pearl Harbor, USA still neutral in 1942, Japan still engaged in China, Germany avoids provocations with USA in Atlantic.

How does 1942 play out in Europe with USA neutral:

a) It seems the British could keep more divisions in Libya in early 1942 and have more fleet units in Alexandria. Could Tripoli be occupied by the British in July 1942?
b) Could the Soviets get considerably more Lend Lease in 1942 (USA shipping unaffected and can more easily ship Lend Lease to Persian Gulf and Vladivostok). Could this mean an even worse catastrophe on the eastern front for the Germans in late 1942?
c) Would any German divisions in France or Norway be freed up for use elsewhere because of less threat of invasion with USA neutral?
d) Anything else?
 
b) Could the Soviets get considerably more Lend Lease in 1942

Why "more Lend Lease"? Afaik, Lend Lease to the USSR only really started after the US joined the war. Before that, what little was sent was via the UK. No US in the war, no increase.

But, even if it did, sooner or latter the increased US shipping in combat zones, and Germany's (understandable) anger at having a neutral supply it's enemies would, imho, drag the US into the war: US cargo ships would be intercepted and turned around or confiscated, some would inevitably be acidentaly sunk...
 
Expect a lot of lend lease but less if any to Russia.The British would be using Shermans and P-47s in North Africa and buying liberty ships and American built escorts at a discount.Some American company would get a license to build Spitfires.
 
Lend Lease Approved to Soviets on October 30th, 1941 so I would expect Lend Lease to Soviets to happen even if USA still neutral (and actual shipments were already on the way before Dec 7th).

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-approves-lend-lease-aid-to-the-ussr

With Japan Neutral, Vladivostok is completely open to USA flagged shipping, even direct to the Persian gulf is easier.

Afaik, until mid-42, the supplies were sent via the UK, so no US shipping had to reach the USSR.
 
...
But, even if it did, sooner or latter the increased US shipping in combat zones, and Germany's (understandable) anger at having a neutral supply it's enemies would, imho, drag the US into the war: US cargo ships would be intercepted and turned around or confiscated, some would inevitably be acidentaly sunk...

Some US flagged cargo ships had been sunk, a US warship sunk, others had exchanged fire. The US was actively interfering with German business in the US. The US had replaced part of the British garrison in iceland with US Navy and Marine units. All that before 7 Dec 1941. 'The Borrowed Years' by Ketcham, and 'Roosevelts Secret War' refer to some of the plans for 1942 to both place more pressure on Germany and bring the US to war with Germany.
 
Absent Op. Torch, if French North Africa flips, there would be some interesting political butterflies with regards to Vichy leaders, e.g. Darlan, who could position themselves as the leader(s) of the Free French in opposition to DeGaulle (who wasn't really liked by Churchill and Roosevelt anyway)
 
Absent Op. Torch, if French North Africa flips, ...

I once outlined a scenario where Petain & Darlan see sooner France will regain nothing as long as Germany is acendant. In the early winter 1942 they negotiate a US occupation of French territories outside France similar to the US occupation of Iceland in May/June 1942. In most locations this would be only token since the Axis can do nothing. But, in the case of North Africa a sizeable force is sent. The multiple fleets departing the US appear in Morrocan, Algerian, and Tunisia ports instead of the annual Puerto Rican Fleet & landing exercise announced. The purpose is to guarantee French nuetrality & cement relations between the old allies of the 1780s... In January - May the forces the Axis used to counter Op Torch in November did not exist in the west. & they were much weaker in the summer & early autum.

While the Axis can overrun the unoccupied zone in France & shut down Petains government there is a lot less they can do should they declare war on the US. By the time they build a effective counter to this 'nuetrality force' the Franco/Americans will be considerablly reinforced. Not declaring war on the US just allows other nuetral zones to be created & further US ground and airforces to be deployed with little opposition.

This scenario is of course politically impossible, but others like the occupation of the Azores by the US are not. Point here is the US had a variety of options for forcing the issue in 1942.
 
Some US flagged cargo ships had been sunk, a US warship sunk, others had exchanged fire. The US was actively interfering with German business in the US. The US had replaced part of the British garrison in iceland with US Navy and Marine units. All that before 7 Dec 1941. 'The Borrowed Years' by Ketcham, and 'Roosevelts Secret War' refer to some of the plans for 1942 to both place more pressure on Germany and bring the US to war with Germany.

Yes, but imagine another year of that. Casualties mounting, maybe even a ship loaded with civilian passengers...
 
Exactly my point. By October 1941 the majority of US citizens considered war with the Axis nations inevitable & would occur in six months or less. Another US warship attacked might have done the trick as early as February or March. The assorted 'Warhawk' groups were at this point increasingly effective while the antiwar groups were becoming morbund despite large numbers on paper.
 
Why "more Lend Lease"? Afaik, Lend Lease to the USSR only really started after the US joined the war. Before that, what little was sent was via the UK. No US in the war, no increase. ...

The USSR was paying cash & barter previous to LL & was ramping that up as they adjusted to a war time organization/economy. How close they were to the limit on that I cant say.
 
Top