Europe German Population Without the World Wars?

What would the German population in Europe be without the World Wars? How many will there be? Where would they be? How do each develop culturally and economically? This includes Germans in Austria-Hungary or its successor states and Germans in the Russian Empire.
 
You would see pressure to migrate out to non-European colonies. In the 19th century, Germans came to the U.S. and Canada.
 
You would see pressure to migrate out to non-European colonies. In the 19th century, Germans came to the U.S. and Canada.
Before ww1 Germany had only about 30.000 emigrants per year, that's not making a dent into the growing population. I see it the other way, it's getting lots of immigration from different places, including colonies.
 

RousseauX

Donor
What would the German population in Europe be without the World Wars? How many will there be? Where would they be? How do each develop culturally and economically? This includes Germans in Austria-Hungary or its successor states and Germans in the Russian Empire.
someone made a convincing calculation it would probably be something like 110-120 million today within 1914 german borders alone
 
Before ww1 Germany had only about 30.000 emigrants per year, that's not making a dent into the growing population. I see it the other way, it's getting lots of immigration from different places, including colonies.
Isn’t most of Germany immigration before ww1 either people from Eastern Europe or migrant/temporary workers and students? Also aren’t most of the migrants who stay are usually Jews, Poles, Czechs, or other Germans from outside of Germany? Germany is still going have people going in and out of it constantly due to its location. A Europe without the great wars might get overcrowded in many places especially Germany due to higher population, lack of death, and higher birthrates. Won’t overpopulation lead to immigration from the country even if it is stable and has decent living standards? Would this lead to more German immigration to different places especially if America still restricts immigration? Could Germans go settle less populated and less developed areas of Europe?
 
But couldn’t overpopulation in industrial European countries like Germany prevent that? The population will be much higher without wars and probably growing faster.
Without the World Wars, Germany would have a little bit over 100 million ethnic Germans by the time its demographic transition ends and people stop having kids. Germany could attract foreign migrants like in OTL after that. Hard to say what would happen as TTL Germany would stay pretty nationalistic.

Austria-Hungary's population was 52 million in 1914 and Germans made up about a quarter of the population. A conservative estimate would be that the population could double by 2000 and end up with a population similar to Germany's.
 
But couldn’t overpopulation in industrial European countries like Germany prevent that? The population will be much higher without wars and probably growing faster.
Against that, there will be increasing access to contraception. Germany in the OTL 1920s is the first country to start producing reliable good quality mass produced condoms. And industrialisation and welfare development are already well on their way by 1914.
 
Against that, there will be increasing access to contraception. Germany in the OTL 1920s is the first country to start producing reliable good quality mass produced condoms. And industrialisation and welfare development are already well on their way by 1914.
I doubt the Kaiserreich would produce contraceptions or at least make it as accessible the same way the Weimar Republic did. Germany without ww1 is still conservative and nationalist which probably leads to government programs and incentives to have kids while trying to discourage or rid of anything that might hinder that. Social pressure for it would also be higher. Without the war Germany is still doing well economically and have high living standards which makes having kids less of a financial burden especially when the Germany turns into a modern welfare state. The welfare system will probably be good in Germany and will probably encourage having kids. Add having government tax breaks and subsidies on top of this the German population might keep having a lot of kids at least until the leaders think they might be getting too overpopulated but that would come much later.
 
Without the World Wars, Germany would have a little bit over 100 million ethnic Germans by the time its demographic transition ends and people stop having kids. Germany could attract foreign migrants like in OTL after that. Hard to say what would happen as TTL Germany would stay pretty nationalistic.

Austria-Hungary's population was 52 million in 1914 and Germans made up about a quarter of the population. A conservative estimate would be that the population could double by 2000 and end up with a population similar to Germany's.
Could Germany and Austria-Hungary experience a Jewish refugees crisis depending on how bad the pogroms got in the Russian Empire? Maybe a large number of Jews try to immigrate to them?
 
Isn’t most of Germany immigration before ww1 either people from Eastern Europe or migrant/temporary workers and students? Also aren’t most of the migrants who stay are usually Jews, Poles, Czechs, or other Germans from outside of Germany? Germany is still going have people going in and out of it constantly due to its location. A Europe without the great wars might get overcrowded in many places especially Germany due to higher population, lack of death, and higher birthrates. Won’t overpopulation lead to immigration from the country even if it is stable and has decent living standards? Would this lead to more German immigration to different places especially if America still restricts immigration? Could Germans go settle less populated and less developed areas of Europe?
People were not as mobile as they are today, except in a few cases where emigration looks like a mass exodus... Today Germany has 400.000 people who leave yearly, but another 400.000 come to Germany so more or less it stays the same.

Without WW1 you'll have the cities ballooning very early, for example Vienna had 2 million people on less then half the area of today (today 1.7 with strong migration to it in the past decades), More people are going to the industrial centers to earn a living, and if they have to live with 10 others i a single room, they have little choice, but conditions would be improving over time. More people from germany would leave as there are more people and more people who have the money to afford to emigrate.

IMO, as time goes on you get both, more immigration and more emigration. Germany would be receiving more people than leaving. You have the colonies in Africa and the considerably poorer Russia to the East, and after some time people from the Ottoman Empire and Arabia.
 
People were not as mobile as they are today, except in a few cases where emigration looks like a mass exodus... Today Germany has 400.000 people who leave yearly, but another 400.000 come to Germany so more or less it stays the same.

Without WW1 you'll have the cities ballooning very early, for example Vienna had 2 million people on less then half the area of today (today 1.7 with strong migration to it in the past decades), More people are going to the industrial centers to earn a living, and if they have to live with 10 others i a single room, they have little choice, but conditions would be improving over time. More people from germany would leave as there are more people and more people who have the money to afford to emigrate.

IMO, as time goes on you get both, more immigration and more emigration. Germany would be receiving more people than leaving. You have the colonies in Africa and the considerably poorer Russia to the East, and after some time people from the Ottoman Empire and Arabia.
I doubt the last part. I don’t think Germany or Austria-Hungary(or its successor states) would ever allow Muslims to immigrate in significant numbers like they do now. France and maybe Britain would a bit due to the empire they have but Europe without world wars is still nationalistic and less giving. Germany probably get plenty of immigration from Russian Empire, Austria-Hungary, and the Balkans. Italy too but that would probably be more temporary workers who go back home. Isn’t a lot of German immigration during the time before ww1 more temporary workers who eventually go back home or students going to school there?
 
I doubt the last part. I don’t think Germany or Austria-Hungary(or its successor states) would ever allow Muslims to immigrate in significant numbers like they do now. France and maybe Britain would a bit due to the empire they have but Europe without world wars is still nationalistic and less giving. Germany probably get plenty of immigration from Russian Empire, Austria-Hungary, and the Balkans. Italy too but that would probably be more temporary workers who go back home. Isn’t a lot of German immigration during the time before ww1 more temporary workers who eventually go back home or students going to school there?
Well... AH passed an islam law in 1912 as a step to integrate Bosnian muslims and iirc before ww1 there were plans for vienna to receive a huge mosque. For Germany you have Willy the 2nds visit to Saladins tomb and reaching out diplomatically, militarily and financially to the main islamic power. It's probably easier in Germany or AH, muslims arent colonial subjects, there's no popular idea that it's the white mans burden to civilize them, they're just random strangers from foreign lands (which on its own isnt that much better).
 
Well... AH passed an islam law in 1912 as a step to integrate Bosnian muslims and iirc before ww1 there were plans for vienna to receive a huge mosque. For Germany you have Willy the 2nds visit to Saladins tomb and reaching out diplomatically, militarily and financially to the main islamic power. It's probably easier in Germany or AH, muslims arent colonial subjects, there's no popular idea that it's the white mans burden to civilize them, they're just random strangers from foreign lands (which on its own isnt that much better).
The European powers ruled over various Muslim places and people. Balkans Muslims I can see immigrating within Europe since they are already there and maybe Turks too but Muslims from Africa or the Middle East not so much. I am pretty sure the Europeans saw a big difference between Bosnian Muslims and Arabs. Also Ottomans might eventually divided up by the Europeans if they still fall apart. If they don’t I doubt Ottomans and German relations would change immigration restrictions.
 
Germany has had an absolutely terrible century demographically. They had 78 million people in 1970, but only have 83 million today even after getting sizable immigration. Without the territory loss and war dead they probably have 100 million by 1970 even with a collapse in fertility relative to the rest of Europe (as per OTL).

Germany had terrible Post War fertility, with a weak baby boom and weak fertility even compared to the rest of the First World ever since. But before WWI Germany had one of the highest fertility rates among developed European countries.

upload_2019-1-8_20-6-56.jpeg

(I lost the pre WWI German TFR, but here is net reproduction rate instead)

upload_2019-1-8_20-13-36.jpeg


I would imagine that without the war Germany remains more traditional, or atleast more traditionalist for longer. Nationalism and Ethno Nationalism won’t be as discredited, religion might be more prevalent, their government remain Autocratic, and the idea of direct competition between Western nations will likely be more prevalent. Germany could potentially buck the trend of sub replacement fertility and maintain fertility above the replacement rate until modern times, or for substantially longer.

Mostly the same for Germans living in Austria-Hungary.

If Germany has fertility that goes as poorly as OTL, probably around 100 million people in Germany’s 1914 borders. But if Germany is able to support large families as effectively as Israel to the present, they would have 200-250 million people in their 1914 borders.

I’m guessing Germany would do much better than OTL given that Germany did uniquely bad, but still probably comes well short of modern Israel and eventually fall below the replacement rate. So probably around 150 million people in Germany (who aren’t all German) and another 30 million Germans outside of Germany.
 

Attachments

  • upload_2019-1-8_20-5-57.jpeg
    upload_2019-1-8_20-5-57.jpeg
    19.1 KB · Views: 90
With an increasingly prosperous society the demographic transition might on the other hand also occur earlier, especially since, in a more conservative political climate there will be fewer incentives to subsidise families (I remember reading about a fiscally conservative finance minister in the interwar period, who, when Social Democrats were campaigning for the introduction of child allowances, retorted that "the exchequer doesn't pay for "work" in the conjugal bed") or provide them with publically subsidised accomodations.
 
Last edited:
One issue I see with trying to predict the population of any country in Europe without the World Wars is that we have no idea what the culture of Europe would look like without the Wars, to say nothing of the political situation.

Without the two Wars to basically eliminate militarism as a concept I think you'd continue to see colonial ambitions by countries like Germany and/or Italy. Their colonies would be filled by the surplus people who IOTL either died in the Wars or couldn't find a spouse. That colonial migration is going to affect the population numbers, as AFAIK the colonies tended to have higher birthrates, and there'd likely be substantial population shifts back and forth.

Without the war guilt and shame that suppressed nationalism across the continent IOTL the culture and thus politics will be radically altered. Even if there's no World War as we recognize it that doesn't preclude a smaller war conducted in the name of nationalism. More regional conflicts could supplement the global conflicts we know of, but they're not likely to be big enough to shake the cultural foundation as WW1 and 2 did.

To try and answer the question here, I'd guesstimate between 110 million and 160 million Germans. This wide range is due to my inability to predict the course of the German state, to say nothing of Aus-Hun., and the culture.
 
Top