Ethiopian Empire??

DaHound22

Banned
What if Ethiopia modernized early on like Meiji Japan? What would be the consequences of this? Would Ethiopia form a massive empire like Japan? Let me know!
 
This is actually a very old question that sometimes is brought forward in this Forum. From the top of my head, having read these discussions, I remember that people usually come to the conclusion that Ethiopia could not "pull a Meiji" like Japan did (at least not without a serious foreign European "godfather", like Britain or France), owing to its lack of a literate population and basic socioeconomic infrastructures (resources, transportation, capital-worth institutions and know-how) that allowed Japan to modernize so quickly. Japan was, in essence, a feudal country, but it was administratively (with an urban bureaucracy, for example) and economically more developed than Ethiopia in the 19th Century.

Now, I might be mistaken, as I'm not so familiar with Ethiopia, and more with Japan, so I predict that a more enlightened fellow might post a better explanation or possibly contradict what I'm saying.

Playing the devil's advocate, let's say that for some reason Ethiopia receives a significant "boost" from a foreign power, like the Ottoman Empire or even Britain (let's say the British pop some colonies in eastern Africa to allow better transportation to India and Oceania). While it struggles with basic issues such as infrastructural development and modernization of its military, it can cut some edge over its lesser developed neighbors in the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Eritrea), and might go as far as the Omani domains in the Zanzibar coast. I doubt the Ethiopans will try to go north beyond Sudan (not that there is anything worthwhile besides northern Egypt in that part of the continent, and then this part will be off-limits due to the European - Western or Turkish - interests). A more expansionist Ethiopia might go further south all the way to the African Great Lakes, but something beyond this might alarm any power interested in Africa, like Portugal, Britain or even France (if they replicate OTL protectorate over Madagascar).

You must take in mind that, due to Ethiopia's geographic position, it is not exactly in an "isolated" situation whatever developments it experiences, especially regarding the evolution of the military or even acquisition of resources from European or Asian markets will inevitably "spill" to its neighboring regions, especially Somalia, and this might, in a much smaller degree, create a space for an overall westernization of the region (something like what happened in Thailand with the colonization of Vietnam and Burma).
 

ben0628

Banned
Nobility is too strong compared to the Emperor unfortunately. You have to find a way to get rid of the tribal/fuedal politics that dominated the country. Had Ethiopia pressed the war with Italy in the late 19th century and retaken Eritrea, it would have access to valuable coastal ports instead of having to rely on foreign ports such as Djibouti.

As mentioned, other problems are that unlike Japan, the average Ethiopian was dirt poor and illiterate. Try using the Orthodox Church in Ethiopia to fix the literacy problem in the country. As for mass poverty, Ethiopia relied heavily on agriculture and didn't trade much due to the fact that they were surrounded by Muslim nations that for the most part, weren't friendly.
 
One important aspect that many people don't realize is that if Ethiopia had become highly literate and militarily industrious similarly to Japan, the only places for Ethiopia to expand are into... European nations' colonies. Thus, the only nation that was really in any trouble of being attacked is Italy, and even then Ethiopia had no navy so besides Eritrea and Somalia, so there is no where else to go.

Plus, "Ethiopia" in itself is not one homogeneous society like Japan is. When one thinks of an "Ethiopian," they usually think of an Amhara, when in reality the Oromo people are the plurality, and the Somalis are the third largest ethnic group (probably becoming the second largest after an Ethiopian conquest of Somalia).

Basically, to make a long story short, you'd need a POD around 1500-1600, with a Zara Yaqob-level competency ruler coming to power and westernizing as the "last Christian bastion in Africa," either assimilating or expelling the Oromo, and really getting in on the Spice trade, even establishing colonies.
 

DaHound22

Banned
See my personal knowledge if Ethiopian history isnt good enough to create a full ATL, but I think i might have a general idea of how it could possibly work. Maybe lol. But any rate.

I think the POD would have to come in 1862 when Emporer Tewodras sent a royal letter to Queen Victoria of Britain via Captain Charles Duncan Cameron asking for assisstance in industrialization and teaching his subjects technical skills. In any sort of ATL, i think you start with Cameron personally delivering the message to the Queen like he was supposed too, and you'd also have to assume that she would help out her fellow Christian. So Tewodras gets a very powerful trading partner, skilled workers to help train his subjects, and begins modernization in the 1860s. To make it easier, as someone has already said, have the Ethiopian Orthodox Church help the population become literate and get on their feet as well. How long this will take, im not sure, but once Ethiopia is decently modernized, they could start expaning their empire. Now when this expansion would begin would have to be worked out, as the time period would determine who exactly the Ethiopians could attack, but i assume the coastline and Arabian Penninsula would be the most logical targets, being relatively weak areas, mostly free of foreign control and netting major gains for the Ethiopians of they take them. Oil brings money and money brings power.
 
People forget that Ethiopia expanded dramatically from Axum's central highlands and coastal base. As evidenced by Gurage languages in the SNNPR surrounded by cushitic peoples and the collapse of Agwe and other cushitic speakers throughout Ethiopia.

Japan attempted to make sustained economic, cultural and social trade with Ethiopia by the time of the 20th century but it was too late, they could not militarily defend Ethiopia from Italy.

BUT I do think that with sustained occupation of Arabia Felix and taking note from Somalia (making a colony in Sofala) an Ethiopian Southeast Africa could form.

The Arabian Felix Kingdoms already had nominal rule of Azania and Rhapta, creating a coastal imperial force and moving inland to directly control both gold and ivory would be lucrative.

That and contact with the Waqwaq believed to be the ancestral Austronesians that mixed in southeast Africa be for settling in Madagascar would directly context them with the northern Indian Ocean World.

We know for fact Janjira was founded by an Ethiopian slave who rose through the ranks and sustained Portuguese capture. We also know Somalia ruled Maldives by the time of Ibn Battuta. It is a real litmus for the limits of Ethiopia's ATL route.

Take some of Sri Lanka too, there is record of them attempting to gain access to their markets.

Just as the Amharic imperialist families married into Oromo to consolidate power and control so too could they marry into their conquered and rule quite widely.
 
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