Ethiopia

What if during the 18th and 19th centuries, Ethiopia started investing in western technology for industry and military, becoming a african power much like japan was. would the country be a world power economically? or would it go into 3rd world status? or would it invade the british and italian colonies of the area? how would italy and britan react to this?
 

Anaxagoras

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What if during the 18th and 19th centuries, Ethiopia started investing in western technology for industry and military, becoming a african power much like japan was. would the country be a world power economically? or would it go into 3rd world status? or would it invade the british and italian colonies of the area? how would italy and britan react to this?

It certainly had more potential than most other African states. But to ask whether it would invade British or Italian colonies in the area is ignoring the impact of butterflies. With a strong Ethiopia in the region, I doubt those colonies would ever be created.
 
If Ethiopia became an "African Japan", international reactions would depend on when it took place. If it happened in the 18th Century, for example, it would probably prevent colonization of Somalia and Eretria.

I could also see them joining in Russia's wars against the Ottoman Empire, both out of a co-religionist brotherhood, and out of realpolitik. They may well gain an outpost in Yemen.
 
That said... A Ethiopian 'Meiji Restoration', led by an (alternate?) winner of Zemene Mesafint, might be an interesting TL to explore
 
Such as...?

Of the top of my head, the lack of a coastline comes to mind. As does the lack of central government and really ANY industrialization. People throw around "pulling a Meiji" but never really address the real situation in Japan. By the time of the Meiji restoration, much of the groundwork for Japan's rise had already been laid out by the Tokugawa Shogunate. They had some industrial growth, a relatively centralized government and a willing backer in the form of the UK. As far as I know Ethiopia had none of this. So is it within the realm of possibility for Ethiopia to modernize into a working nation, similar to Europe, yes. But it will take a driven group of politicians and military officers that have the complete and total support of the Government. So very difficult.
 
Of the top of my head, the lack of a coastline comes to mind. As does the lack of central government and really ANY industrialization. People throw around "pulling a Meiji" but never really address the real situation in Japan. By the time of the Meiji restoration, much of the groundwork for Japan's rise had already been laid out by the Tokugawa Shogunate. They had some industrial growth, a relatively centralized government and a willing backer in the form of the UK. As far as I know Ethiopia had none of this. So is it within the realm of possibility for Ethiopia to modernize into a working nation, similar to Europe, yes. But it will take a driven group of politicians and military officers that have the complete and total support of the Government. So very difficult.

Not to mention that Japan had a large population, and that population had a very high literacy rate for the period.

The good education base Japan had helped it pull a Meiji.
 
Perhaps have Emperor Menelik be more open to European investment after the battle of Magdela and allow all neighbouring colonial powers to build railways to Addis Ababa. He should have balanced out their influence so us to keep his position secure. More railway routes into Ethiopia would have given the French railway more competition, bringing down rail fares and thus helping exports.
That would be a good start
 
Its probably more of a post 1900 issue for Ethiopia but wouldnt taking better control of its population increase also be an advantage? I believe it went from about 9million in 1900 or something to about 90 millon in 2000 with all sorts of effects on social structure, infrastructure and loss of ground fertility especially.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Ethiopia was far behind pre- Meiji Japan. Also throw in that Ethiopia was multi- ethnic, multi- religious, and recently expanded (Menelik conquered alot of lands). Ras Tafari (Haile Selassie) tried modernize as best a he could, but he understood to hurry slowly (otherwise he'd be dead very quickly).

One has to remember Ethiopia is a society where slavery and serfdom is common, where soldiers are paid in spoils from raids and conquest or in land (taken in conquest). Said soldiers are also more loyal to their commander (who make sure they are paid, i.e. make sure they can raid or conquer something, or just allow them to bully the local populace) than to the Throne. I know Pre- Meiji Japan was much the same, but Japan had better infrastructure making modernization much easier.
 
Weren't the Portuguese tied up with the Ethiopians back in the 1600s? I believe they provided military assistance against rebels or Muslims or someone. Couldn't a longer, more prolonged period of European influence and centralized authority backed by European introduced equipment and techniques awoken the nation on the possibilities of modernization sooner? I believe the Jesuits were trying to promote Catholism in the Ethiopian Court much to the distress of the Coptic masses and curtailed it somewhat earlier OTL.

And off course Ethiopia would need access to the Red Sea by the C15-6 centuries to make the most of the growing trade that was passing through this area by this time. This would allow the Ethiopians much better access to European goods and weapons, things that their rivals could obtain much more easily from the Ottomans.
 
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Japan had a well educated elite, strong government, a fairly large middle class, and a highly skilled workforce. In the 1500-1600s period, it was very equivalent to the European states, while some aspects could be considered to be inferior, it was superior in others. Japan was well placed to modernize. Eithiopia wasn't.

Still, assuming a strong bureaucratic state was developed, a prolonged period of Western advisors could modernize the country somewhat. Perhaps not to Great Britain, France, German level, but to a Portugal or Greece level of development.

Ethiopia has large deposits of gold, platinum, copper, nickel, sulfur, and potash. That is useful, but it lacks the all important coal and iron for 19th century style industrialization. It does have a lot of hydropower potential though. We could see textile and handicraft development, but it'll be second rate industry compared to Italy or Japan, much less the bigger powers of the 19th century.

It would probably be advanced enough to keep its independence and perhaps even expand to control the rest of the Horn of Africa. It would be a regional power, not a great power. However, it might end up colonizing Yemen and controlling access to the Red Sea. If so, it will either need to be friendly to the British, or it's going to lose its control of Yemen.

Eventually, it'll be the model for the rest of Africa to develop and modernize since it'll have been the only African state to do so.

Assuming it doesn't implode anytime between its modernization and now, Ethiopia would probably be either a middle income country on the cusp of being a developed economy, or a developed economy. Probably somewhere between Mexico and South Korea in GDP per capita.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Japan had a well educated elite, strong government, a fairly large middle class, and a highly skilled workforce. In the 1500-1600s period, it was very equivalent to the European states, while some aspects could be considered to be inferior, it was superior in others. Japan was well placed to modernize. Eithiopia wasn't.

Still, assuming a strong bureaucratic state was developed, a prolonged period of Western advisors could modernize the country somewhat. Perhaps not to Great Britain, France, German level, but to a Portugal or Greece level of development.

Ethiopia has large deposits of gold, platinum, copper, nickel, sulfur, and potash. That is useful, but it lacks the all important coal and iron for 19th century style industrialization. It does have a lot of hydropower potential though. We could see textile and handicraft development, but it'll be second rate industry compared to Italy or Japan, much less the bigger powers of the 19th century.

It would probably be advanced enough to keep its independence and perhaps even expand to control the rest of the Horn of Africa. It would be a regional power, not a great power. However, it might end up colonizing Yemen and controlling access to the Red Sea. If so, it will either need to be friendly to the British, or it's going to lose its control of Yemen.

Eventually, it'll be the model for the rest of Africa to develop and modernize since it'll have been the only African state to do so.

Assuming it doesn't implode anytime between its modernization and now, Ethiopia would probably be either a middle income country on the cusp of being a developed economy, or a developed economy. Probably somewhere between Mexico and South Korea in GDP per capita.

For this the Age of Princes must be avoided.
 
What if during the 18th and 19th centuries, Ethiopia started investing in western technology for industry and military, becoming a african power much like japan was. would the country be a world power economically? or would it go into 3rd world status? or would it invade the british and italian colonies of the area? how would italy and britan react to this?

Ethiopia becoming an African analogue to Imperial Japan, as in, a strong, westernized, militaristic state which would at some point try to use a world-spanning conflict to create a nominally anti-colonial Greater East Africa Co-Prosperity Sphere...that's a very interesting concept, but it doesn't quite float.
 
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