Ethiopia ws on borowed time

If WW1 had been avoided would Ethiopia still have been invaded by a European eventual

  • YES

    Votes: 16 40.0%
  • NO

    Votes: 24 60.0%

  • Total voters
    40
just a thought if WW1 was avoided do you think Ethiopia wold have been invaded and if so by who
 

Esopo

Banned
Whitout mussolini i dont see it likely. Liberal italy was extremely cautious for the diplomatic preparation for its colonial actions, and it wouldnt have spoiled its relationships with the uk for a basically useless new colony.
 
Whitout mussolini i dont see it likely. Liberal italy was extremely cautious for the diplomatic preparation for its colonial actions, and it wouldnt have spoiled its relationships with the uk for a basically useless new colony.

dosnt have to be italy who invades
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Depend on the stability of Ethiopia. There was an old treaty between France, Britain and Italy to split Ethiopia between them if the Empire collapsed.

Without WW1, there is a chance Iyasu V won't be deposed, and Ras Tafari never becomes regent nor emperor. Iyasu V is certainly a man with the potential to lead the empire to it's doom. But let's not exaggerate. Ras Tafari had to fight of rebellions and coup attempts yearly, and the empire only collapsed when the Italians invaded, and after the restoration it survived until 1974, although it was always close to collapse.
 
Only the Italians were lame enough to invade African countries by this point in time. And invading Abyssinia was pretty much a post traumatic reaction to losing at Adowa in the 1890's.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Too, it was denounced by pretty much the entire international community. The only colonies bordering Ethiopia belonged to Britain, France, and Italy. Italy was the only one who tried to conquer it in order to "catch up" to those European powers that got all the "good parts" of Africa, so basically to put more green on the map.
 
The only possible invaders are Italy, Britain and France.

I don't see Britain invading since it would have nothing to gain. Britain could have actually made a protectorate out of Ethiopia in the past after a punitive expedition but did not.
France has interests in Ethiopia, chiefly the Djibouti railway so I don't see it invading especially as there would be nothing to gain.
A non fascist Italy would have other fishes to fry.
 
Until hydroelectric potential is realised then Ethiopia has little to make it really valuable to make attacking it really worth it. Even then unless the europeans are interested in long term developing their colonies they will not need to worry about Ethiopia except perhaps signing water treaties with them.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
The only possible invaders are Italy, Britain and France.

I don't see Britain invading since it would have nothing to gain. Britain could have actually made a protectorate out of Ethiopia in the past after a punitive expedition but did not.
France has interests in Ethiopia, chiefly the Djibouti railway so I don't see it invading especially as there would be nothing to gain.
A non fascist Italy would have other fishes to fry.
Well, not so fast. Britain had designs on Lake Tana, since it's the source of the Blue Nile. France always wanted their railroad from Djibouti to Addis Abeba, so French Somaliland could become "the Gate to Ethiopia". If the Ethiopian Empire for some reason imploded during the inter-war years, Britain, France and Italy would all move in to seize the interests.
 
Well, not so fast. Britain had designs on Lake Tana, since it's the source of the Blue Nile. France always wanted their railroad from Djibouti to Addis Abeba, so French Somaliland could become "the Gate to Ethiopia". If the Ethiopian Empire for some reason imploded during the inter-war years, Britain, France and Italy would all move in to seize the interests.

But what would make it implode that's the problem
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Well have Iyasu V or Zauditu (if Iyasu is overthrown, and Zauditu become a actual powerful empress) go against the West and for example completely shrug of the slavery question with "Ethiopia has always had slaves" instead of Ras Tafari's "I try to do something about it, but it's not easy". The future Haile Selassie was very smart in his relations with Europe, and knew not to piss of the French and the British. Iyasu V seems to have been a very impulsive ruler, but also held in check by his father Ras Mikael. Iyasu even participated in raids for slaves himself (when he still was Crown Prince, i.e. before he was emperor, but still...).

Of course we could have Iyasu be overthrown and Zauditu being crowned, but without Ras Tafari as her regent. Instead have her surrounded by people as Reactionary as herself. What would the Europeans say if the ruler of Ethiopia simply told them to go fuck themselves, and that the Lion of Juda do not make deals with savages.
 
If Ethiopia imploded, I think you'd have a joint British/French intervention to protect their 'interests'.

Otherwise, with a democratic Italy, and Britain and France having no real reason to send troops to fight and die over some mountains in east africa would rather leave it as is and try to eploit the country economically via treaty.

Basically, the Siam of Africa
 
If Ethiopia imploded, I think you'd have a joint British/French intervention to protect their 'interests'.

Otherwise, with a democratic Italy, and Britain and France having no real reason to send troops to fight and die over some mountains in east africa would rather leave it as is and try to eploit the country economically via treaty.

Basically, the Siam of Africa

This to me seems the most likly outcome
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
If Ethiopia imploded, I think you'd have a joint British/French intervention to protect their 'interests'.

Otherwise, with a democratic Italy, and Britain and France having no real reason to send troops to fight and die over some mountains in east africa would rather leave it as is and try to eploit the country economically via treaty.

Basically, the Siam of Africa
That is if they get a treaty. As I explained earlier: with Ras Tafari/ Haile Selassie:probably. With Iyasu V: not for certain at all. With Zauditu: no.
 
In my opinion doesn't it all depend on if Iyasu V converts to Islam if he doesn't he would still be friendly towards Muslims and he still might get kicked off the throne

British taking over very unlikely in my opinion they're probably getting over the naval race with Germany actually looking towards them as potential ally against a increasingly powerful Russia

it's between the French and Italians the Italians having a slight edge because they have more beachside real estate

at this moment to you probably have a Russian Ottoman war going on or another Baltic war

just my opinion again wouldn't the French and British be more interested about the Ottomans and China than anything else more money to be had there

Let Italy be more focus on Africa while they can be focused on Asia have less competition

Again just my opinion on what European politics would look like
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
In my opinion doesn't it all depend on if Iyasu V converts to Islam if he doesn't he would still be friendly towards Muslims and he still might get kicked off the throne

British taking over very unlikely in my opinion they're probably getting over the naval race with Germany actually looking towards them as potential ally against a increasingly powerful Russia

it's between the French and Italians the Italians having a slight edge because they have more beachside real estate

at this moment to you probably have a Russian Ottoman war going on or another Baltic war

just my opinion again wouldn't the French and British be more interested about the Ottomans and China than anything else more money to be had there

Let Italy be more focus on Africa while they can be focused on Asia have less competition

Again just my opinion on what European politics would look like
Iyasu V was never about to convert to Islam. That was the propaganda used by the Shewan aristocracy to get rid of him. And even if Iyasu had some pro- Ottoman feelings, his father Ras Mikael would never allow him to get too much involved with the Central Powers delegations. Some kind of stand off between the Shewan nobility and the Wollo Oromo was inevitable. The aristocrats of Addis Abeba would not just stand when the emperor filled the court with barbarians, some who weren't even Christians. In OTL they convinced the Entente that Iyasu wanted to ally with the Ottomans, and they were able to convince the church that he was a Muslim (the Abuna was essentially bullied to condemn Iyasu against his will). Iyasu was by no mean a good emperor, but his downfall had to do with the Shewans conspiring against him and spreading rumors about him. Still, if Ras Tafari hadn't joined the rebellion, it might have been defeated. The army of Wollo was the most feared army in Ethiopia. The Shewans needed a good strategist like Tafari to defeat Ras Mikael.
 
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