Whitout mussolini i dont see it likely. Liberal italy was extremely cautious for the diplomatic preparation for its colonial actions, and it wouldnt have spoiled its relationships with the uk for a basically useless new colony.
dosnt have to be italy who invades
Well, not so fast. Britain had designs on Lake Tana, since it's the source of the Blue Nile. France always wanted their railroad from Djibouti to Addis Abeba, so French Somaliland could become "the Gate to Ethiopia". If the Ethiopian Empire for some reason imploded during the inter-war years, Britain, France and Italy would all move in to seize the interests.The only possible invaders are Italy, Britain and France.
I don't see Britain invading since it would have nothing to gain. Britain could have actually made a protectorate out of Ethiopia in the past after a punitive expedition but did not.
France has interests in Ethiopia, chiefly the Djibouti railway so I don't see it invading especially as there would be nothing to gain.
A non fascist Italy would have other fishes to fry.
Well, not so fast. Britain had designs on Lake Tana, since it's the source of the Blue Nile. France always wanted their railroad from Djibouti to Addis Abeba, so French Somaliland could become "the Gate to Ethiopia". If the Ethiopian Empire for some reason imploded during the inter-war years, Britain, France and Italy would all move in to seize the interests.
Yes, which is feat, since there were rebellions and coup attempt yearly.Ethiopia had the ability to hold itself together whatever the problems of the time - It would be difficult to cause total collapse.
If Ethiopia imploded, I think you'd have a joint British/French intervention to protect their 'interests'.
Otherwise, with a democratic Italy, and Britain and France having no real reason to send troops to fight and die over some mountains in east africa would rather leave it as is and try to eploit the country economically via treaty.
Basically, the Siam of Africa
That is if they get a treaty. As I explained earlier: with Ras Tafari/ Haile SelassieIf Ethiopia imploded, I think you'd have a joint British/French intervention to protect their 'interests'.
Otherwise, with a democratic Italy, and Britain and France having no real reason to send troops to fight and die over some mountains in east africa would rather leave it as is and try to eploit the country economically via treaty.
Basically, the Siam of Africa
Iyasu V was never about to convert to Islam. That was the propaganda used by the Shewan aristocracy to get rid of him. And even if Iyasu had some pro- Ottoman feelings, his father Ras Mikael would never allow him to get too much involved with the Central Powers delegations. Some kind of stand off between the Shewan nobility and the Wollo Oromo was inevitable. The aristocrats of Addis Abeba would not just stand when the emperor filled the court with barbarians, some who weren't even Christians. In OTL they convinced the Entente that Iyasu wanted to ally with the Ottomans, and they were able to convince the church that he was a Muslim (the Abuna was essentially bullied to condemn Iyasu against his will). Iyasu was by no mean a good emperor, but his downfall had to do with the Shewans conspiring against him and spreading rumors about him. Still, if Ras Tafari hadn't joined the rebellion, it might have been defeated. The army of Wollo was the most feared army in Ethiopia. The Shewans needed a good strategist like Tafari to defeat Ras Mikael.In my opinion doesn't it all depend on if Iyasu V converts to Islam if he doesn't he would still be friendly towards Muslims and he still might get kicked off the throne
British taking over very unlikely in my opinion they're probably getting over the naval race with Germany actually looking towards them as potential ally against a increasingly powerful Russia
it's between the French and Italians the Italians having a slight edge because they have more beachside real estate
at this moment to you probably have a Russian Ottoman war going on or another Baltic war
just my opinion again wouldn't the French and British be more interested about the Ottomans and China than anything else more money to be had there
Let Italy be more focus on Africa while they can be focused on Asia have less competition
Again just my opinion on what European politics would look like