Ethiopia wins against Fascist Italy- 2nd Adowa ?

OK, WI during the Italo-Ethiopian War, Haile Selassie's Ethiopian soldiers were able to actually inflict a major defeat against Mussolini's Fascists on a scale resembling Adowa redux ? What PODs would be required for such an event ?
 
Well, Italy wasn't doing too well (pushed back by the Christmas offensive) before having to resort to chemical weapons and there was a notable Ethiopian numerical advantage...

Still, Italy had Ethiopia incredibly outclassed in tech. Aircraft (595 Italian vs. 3 Abyssinian according to wiki), machine guns, tankettes, artillery advantage, the aforementioned gas...

It'd be very difficult for Ethiopia/Abyssinia to win this to say the least. Maybe if the Christmas offensive somehow turns into a rout (say if Critini fails in his breakout and has to surrender, but even then...), or if France or Britain actually intervene (highly unlikely).
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Well, Italy wasn't doing too well (pushed back by the Christmas offensive) before having to resort to chemical weapons and there was a notable Ethiopian numerical advantage...

Still, Italy had Ethiopia incredibly outclassed in tech. Aircraft (595 Italian vs. 3 Abyssinian according to wiki), machine guns, tankettes, artillery advantage, the aforementioned gas...

It'd be very difficult for Ethiopia/Abyssinia to win this to say the least. Maybe if the Christmas offensive somehow turns into a rout (say if Critini fails in his breakout and has to surrender, but even then...), or if France or Britain actually intervene (highly unlikely).
One of the problems the Imperial Guards had was their distincitive uniform that made them easy shots in the deserts. Besides that, perhaps more Great Power funding and training of the Ethopians (I recall the Japanese in particular likened them to an African Japan) might do the trick. Hell, if the British closed the Sinai off to the Italians they might have lost.
 
Actually it very possible for France and England, as well as Japan to arm and train Ethiopian forces. Ethiopia could be seen as a way to keep the Italians in their place and what better way than having a bunch of Africans kick the crap out of them?
 

Markus

Banned
OK, WI during the Italo-Ethiopian War, Haile Selassie's Ethiopian soldiers were able to actually inflict a major defeat against Mussolini's Fascists on a scale resembling Adowa redux ?

Adowa redux = Mussolini´s end


What PODs would be required for such an event ?
After the end of WW1 many nations had a huuuuuuge pile of surplus weapons. Ethiopia recognizes this as an excellent opportunity to modernize her military and gets a big stash of bolt action rifles, water-cooled machine guns, trench mortars and artillery guns for very little money. Preferably from one nation. In 1930 Ethiopia gets weary of Italy’s intentions when Italy built a fort at the Welwel oasis and decides to buy additional weapons. Since most of their arsenal is up to date they just need more of the same, plus AT- and AA-guns. Add training in modern combat provided by white Russian exile officers and the fighting power of the Ethiopian Army has increased several fold.

Building an Air force will be very expensive but planes like the Potez 25 and Breguet XIX did ok as army co-operation aircraft for the Greeks in 1940/41.


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Maybe if the Christmas offensive somehow turns into a rout (say if Critini fails in his breakout and has to surrender, but even then...), or if France or Britain actually intervene (highly unlikely).

I´m afraid winning the Battle of Dembeguina Pass won´t do the trick as the "italian" defenders were Eritreans commanded by a few italian officers.
 
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Markus for the win. Add in Hash's ideas on closing the Suez and that could make Ethiopian victory a lot more possible.

And agree fully on Dembeguina Pass, BTW...even I know I was pushing it there. :eek:

But yea...invade Abyssinia again and fail...bye-bye Mussie and all who supported his invasion. Possibly bye-bye Ciano and Farinacci due to combat. Hello power vacuum. We might see Balbo (opposed the war), Grandi or Bianchi assume Duce, or might see Fascism collapse entirely depending on how bad the war goes.

The big ??? on Brit/French assistance, though, is the fear that a victory of Africans over Europeans could have "undesired consequences" for their colonial empires.
 
At this point in time the idea of the Stresa Front was still held in some regard. The combined might of France, UK, and Italy was seen as a fine counter to that of the Germans.

The French and British still wanted an Italian ally against the Germans. So the idea of one of them moving in seems impossible, all the more so for the chance of a possible conflcit with Italy, which the public would never go for.
 
At this point in time the idea of the Stresa Front was still held in some regard. The combined might of France, UK, and Italy was seen as a fine counter to that of the Germans.

The French and British still wanted an Italian ally against the Germans. So the idea of one of them moving in seems impossible, all the more so for the chance of a possible conflcit with Italy, which the public would never go for.

Other great points.

Some POD from a lot earlier than OTL's invasion is certainly necessary.
 
Besides that, perhaps more Great Power funding and training of the Ethopians (I recall the Japanese in particular likened them to an African Japan) might do the trick. Hell, if the British closed the Sinai off to the Italians they might have lost.

The problem is that the great powers weren't really interested in Abyssinia's fate. The only concrete act against Italy were the economic sanctions, which didn't include coal and oil. Besides several nations never agreed to support the sanctions (among these USA and Germany). France and Great Britain even attempted a mediation (Hoare-Lavall pact) which would have made Ethiopia cede part of her territory to Italy. The pact failed when a newspaper leaked his existance to the public.
Point is that, a part few military counsellors, the great powers did nothing for Ethiopia (the italian version of wiki claims that they sent weapons too, but since I'm away from my books, I can't conferm this). They even refused the Negus a loan to finance a resistance movement. In 1938 Great Britain and France recognized italian soveraignity over Abyssinia.

Ethiopia could be seen as a way to keep the Italians in their place and what better way than having a bunch of Africans kick the crap out of them?

But Great Britain and France still saw Italy as a possible ally against a rearming Germany, a sort of lesser evil. This explain the so called Stresa front and the allies behaviour during and after the ethiopian crisis.

After the end of WW1 many nations have a huuuuuuge pile of surplus weapons. Ethiopia recognizes this an excellent opportunity to modernize her military and gets a big stash of bolt action rifles, water-cooled machine guns, trench mortars and artillery guns for very little money. Preferably from one nation. In 1930 Ethiopia gets weary of Italy’s intentions when Italy built a fort at the Welwel oasis and decides to buy additional weapons. Since most of their arsenal is up to date they just need more of the same, plus AT- and AA-guns. Add training in modern combat provided by white Russian exile officers and the fighting power of the Ethiopian Army has increased several fold.

A modern military would have helped a lot, for sure, but how the negus would have paid all those weapons? Ethiopia was a rather poor and underdeveloped country and I don't know if they could afford such an expense (A little money, as you say, seems a bit subjective...).
Besides Ethiopia sudden rearmament could trigger a completely different kind of crisis: Italy wasn't the only european power with land possessions near Abyssinia...
 

Markus

Banned
A modern military would have helped a lot, for sure, but how the negus would have paid all those weapons? Ethiopia was a rather poor and underdeveloped country and I don't know if they could afford such an expense (A little money, as you say, seems a bit subjective...).

Ok, little money is relative but after "the war to end all wars" winners and loosers had mountains of guns and ammo that lasted into WW2 in some cases. They must have been cheap. I´m not sure but weren´t Axis weapons sold at scrap metal prices after WW2?


Besides Ethiopia sudden rearmament could trigger a completely different kind of crisis: Italy wasn't the only european power with land possessions near Abyssinia...
Well, a big part of their Army had no firearms at all in 1935, God knows what sort of guns the rest had(blackpowder anybody?) so I don´t think many would have cared if Ethiopia bought small arms in 1919/20 but I know more than one european nation could have needed the money, any money.
With regard to 1930, the modernisation follows a clear Italian provocation and even the improved ethiopian forces are mostly well armed militia.
Last but not least, it might not be a bad thing if France and the UK are alarmed, as long as both understand the whole series of events was triggered by the Italians, not Ethiopia. And since there is no Nazi-Germany there is no need to pamper Italy like in 1935.
 
or if France or Britain actually intervene (highly unlikely).
Problem is Italy had British/French Tacit approval before the invasion. Britain/ France only turned against after the Papers started questioning the Approval.
 
Ok, little money is relative but after "the war to end all wars" winners and loosers had mountains of guns and ammo that lasted into WW2 in some cases. They must have been cheap.

Well, consider that part of those weapons were kept by the direct owners and that etiopians weren't the only buyers.

Well, a big part of their Army had no firearms at all in 1935, God knows what sort of guns the rest had(blackpowder anybody?) so I don´t think many would have cared if Ethiopia bought small arms in 1919/20 but I know more than one european nation could have needed the money, any money.
With regard to 1930, the modernisation follows a clear Italian provocation and even the improved ethiopian forces are mostly well armed militia.

But an ethiopian rearmament after WW1 and the enlistment of foreign military advisors is going to influence the struggle for the throne in the twenties. OTL Italy and the others powers meddled in the abyssinian affairs, but avoided a direct intervention. With an armed up Ethiopia, Mussolini could think that it would be better to attack immediately rather than face a war later.
In this scenario, Italy would attack in the 1929/1930 under the pretension of giving aid to the empress Zaoditù, possibly avoiding in this manner retaliations by the society of nations.
Consider besides that OTL Italy had a good idea of the military forces of the ethiopians. General Malladra had in the late twenties redacted a report on the abyssinians military capabilities and a suitable war plan to counter them. According to Malladra plan, Italy was to attack since the beginning with at least 200000 men, a consistent air force and use rounds and bombs with "liquidi speciali", id est poisonous gas.
A victory after the civil war would have led to a protectorate, rather than an annexations, but probably Italy would have never been sanctioned by the allies.

Last but not least, it might not be a bad thing if France and the UK are alarmed, as long as both understand the whole series of events was triggered by the Italians, not Ethiopia. And since there is no Nazi-Germany there is no need to pamper Italy like in 1935.

Maybe, but consider also that France and Great Britain wouldn't see another colonial power defeated in a decisive manner by one of the "natives", especially if leading to the "liberation" of Erytrea. Since the long struggle to keep the colonial empires was starting, I doubt that either France or Britain would have liked to see such an example setted.
 
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