OK, WI during the Italo-Ethiopian War, Haile Selassie's Ethiopian soldiers were able to actually inflict a major defeat against Mussolini's Fascists on a scale resembling Adowa redux ? What PODs would be required for such an event ?
One of the problems the Imperial Guards had was their distincitive uniform that made them easy shots in the deserts. Besides that, perhaps more Great Power funding and training of the Ethopians (I recall the Japanese in particular likened them to an African Japan) might do the trick. Hell, if the British closed the Sinai off to the Italians they might have lost.Well, Italy wasn't doing too well (pushed back by the Christmas offensive) before having to resort to chemical weapons and there was a notable Ethiopian numerical advantage...
Still, Italy had Ethiopia incredibly outclassed in tech. Aircraft (595 Italian vs. 3 Abyssinian according to wiki), machine guns, tankettes, artillery advantage, the aforementioned gas...
It'd be very difficult for Ethiopia/Abyssinia to win this to say the least. Maybe if the Christmas offensive somehow turns into a rout (say if Critini fails in his breakout and has to surrender, but even then...), or if France or Britain actually intervene (highly unlikely).
OK, WI during the Italo-Ethiopian War, Haile Selassie's Ethiopian soldiers were able to actually inflict a major defeat against Mussolini's Fascists on a scale resembling Adowa redux ?
After the end of WW1 many nations had a huuuuuuge pile of surplus weapons. Ethiopia recognizes this as an excellent opportunity to modernize her military and gets a big stash of bolt action rifles, water-cooled machine guns, trench mortars and artillery guns for very little money. Preferably from one nation. In 1930 Ethiopia gets weary of Italy’s intentions when Italy built a fort at the Welwel oasis and decides to buy additional weapons. Since most of their arsenal is up to date they just need more of the same, plus AT- and AA-guns. Add training in modern combat provided by white Russian exile officers and the fighting power of the Ethiopian Army has increased several fold.What PODs would be required for such an event ?
Maybe if the Christmas offensive somehow turns into a rout (say if Critini fails in his breakout and has to surrender, but even then...), or if France or Britain actually intervene (highly unlikely).
At this point in time the idea of the Stresa Front was still held in some regard. The combined might of France, UK, and Italy was seen as a fine counter to that of the Germans.
The French and British still wanted an Italian ally against the Germans. So the idea of one of them moving in seems impossible, all the more so for the chance of a possible conflcit with Italy, which the public would never go for.
Besides that, perhaps more Great Power funding and training of the Ethopians (I recall the Japanese in particular likened them to an African Japan) might do the trick. Hell, if the British closed the Sinai off to the Italians they might have lost.
Ethiopia could be seen as a way to keep the Italians in their place and what better way than having a bunch of Africans kick the crap out of them?
After the end of WW1 many nations have a huuuuuuge pile of surplus weapons. Ethiopia recognizes this an excellent opportunity to modernize her military and gets a big stash of bolt action rifles, water-cooled machine guns, trench mortars and artillery guns for very little money. Preferably from one nation. In 1930 Ethiopia gets weary of Italy’s intentions when Italy built a fort at the Welwel oasis and decides to buy additional weapons. Since most of their arsenal is up to date they just need more of the same, plus AT- and AA-guns. Add training in modern combat provided by white Russian exile officers and the fighting power of the Ethiopian Army has increased several fold.
A modern military would have helped a lot, for sure, but how the negus would have paid all those weapons? Ethiopia was a rather poor and underdeveloped country and I don't know if they could afford such an expense (A little money, as you say, seems a bit subjective...).
Well, a big part of their Army had no firearms at all in 1935, God knows what sort of guns the rest had(blackpowder anybody?) so I don´t think many would have cared if Ethiopia bought small arms in 1919/20 but I know more than one european nation could have needed the money, any money.Besides Ethiopia sudden rearmament could trigger a completely different kind of crisis: Italy wasn't the only european power with land possessions near Abyssinia...
Problem is Italy had British/French Tacit approval before the invasion. Britain/ France only turned against after the Papers started questioning the Approval.or if France or Britain actually intervene (highly unlikely).
Ok, little money is relative but after "the war to end all wars" winners and loosers had mountains of guns and ammo that lasted into WW2 in some cases. They must have been cheap.
Well, a big part of their Army had no firearms at all in 1935, God knows what sort of guns the rest had(blackpowder anybody?) so I don´t think many would have cared if Ethiopia bought small arms in 1919/20 but I know more than one european nation could have needed the money, any money.
With regard to 1930, the modernisation follows a clear Italian provocation and even the improved ethiopian forces are mostly well armed militia.
Last but not least, it might not be a bad thing if France and the UK are alarmed, as long as both understand the whole series of events was triggered by the Italians, not Ethiopia. And since there is no Nazi-Germany there is no need to pamper Italy like in 1935.