Ethiopia under the Hoare-Laval Pact

I know that chunks of northern and eastern Ethiopia would go towards the adjacent Italian colonies while she’d effectively become an Italian protectorate but my question is what would she look like otherwise?

Additionally, what would Ethiopia look like if the Second World War happens as it did OTL?
 
I know that chunks of northern and eastern Ethiopia would go towards the adjacent Italian colonies while she’d effectively become an Italian protectorate but my question is what would she look like otherwise?

Additionally, what would Ethiopia look like if the Second World War happens as it did OTL?

I don't see how it would make Ethiopia a protectorate of Italy.

It seems more like a mixed thing. Italy gains territory and has economic control over southern Ethiopia, but the Ethiopian core (the lands that Ethiopia had before its 19th century expansion) remains viable and the country gets access to the coast. I would imagine the Italian Economic zone would be like the foreign spheres in China, Thailand, or Iran.

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If Ethiopia doesn't have military caps imposed as part of any peace treaty, then I don't see why they couldn't opportunistically enter WWII on the allied side.

The big question is who Italy sides with.

If Italy is allied or neutral, I can see Ethiopia entering the allied side following a TTL Fall of France equivalent in exchange for Djibouti and a slice of (or all of) British Somaliland. Heck, maybe South Sudan too.

If Italy is part of the Axis, Mussolini probably invades Ethiopia seeking to finish the job. Ethiopia is part of the Allies fighting Italy during the East African Campaign.
 
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If they go with Germany as per OTL, then maybe Mussolini just finishes the job during the war.
Would there even be enough resources in East Africa for Italy fight both Ethiopia and British forces ?

I can see Ethiopia entering the allied side following a TTL Fall of France equivalent in exchange for Djibouti and a slice of (or all of) British Somaliland.
seems unlikely as that would require the foresight that allies or specifically just Britain in 1940 would fight on and come out on top in the end.
 
Would there even be enough resources in East Africa for Italy fight both Ethiopia and British forces ?


seems unlikely as that would require the foresight that allies or specifically just Britain in 1940 would fight on and come out on top in the end.

It wouldn't need to be in 1940. 1941 or 1942 could work just as well.
 
1941 or 1942 could work just as well.
At that point Italian territory has fall to British forces so not much reason to give Ethiopia anything. Rather give up their own territory, would be more likely to just reverse Italian gains of Hoare-Laval Pact. Without the need to compensate Ethiopia for the Italian occupation Eritrea might go to Britain.
 
At that point Italian territory has fall to British forces so not much reason to give Ethiopia anything. Rather give up their own territory, would be more likely to just reverse Italian gains of Hoare-Laval Pact. Without the need to compensate Ethiopia for the Italian occupation Eritrea might go to Britain.

Maybe. Again, it depends on what Italy does in this situation.

I get the vibe that Italy is more likely to be Neutral or Allied than Axis in this situation. Ethiopia had 800,000 soldiers during the Italo-Ethiopian War, so an Ethiopian offer to contribute troops wouldn't be that implausible.

Although I suppose there's a different situation that we aren't even looking at: Ethiopia could join the Axis. OTL Germany sent three planes, 10,000 rifles, and 10million rounds of ammunition to Ethiopia during the war. If Hoare-Laval goes through and Stresa holds up, we might see some quirky outcomes. France and Britain have betrayed Ethiopia. France and Italy were for a tough line on Germany whereas Britain was trying to play both sides. I can see a situation in which the French and Italians are willing to get into a fight with Germany over Austria (or perhaps even the Rhineland), but the British are unwilling.


@Jackson Lennock, do you think that the Ethiopian government would be a Fascist one in this scenario?

I don't know enough about Ethiopia's internal politics at the time. I think if Britain and France are sticking with Italy, it wouldn't be wild for Ethiopia to look to Germany and Japan for aid. Germany supported Ethiopia a bit OTL just to spite Mussolini and the Japanese and Ethiopians had some interesting long-standing relations. That doesn't necessarily mean the country would be Fascist though.

If German advisers and weapons started popping up in Ethiopia in 1936, I wonder how impactful that would be in a war that starts in 1938 with Germany (and Ethiopia) on one side and Italy-France-Austria on the other.
 
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I get the vibe that Italy is more likely to be Neutral or Allied than Axis in this situation
Unless Italy has declared war on Germany. There no reason why the opportunistic dow on France would change.

Ethiopia could join the Axis. OTL Germany sent three planes, 10,000 rifles, and 10million rounds of ammunition to Ethiopia during the war. If Hoare-Laval goes through and Stresa holds up, we might see some quirky outcomes. France and Britain have betrayed Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is landlocked and the axis lack navy to reach it so joining Axis is suicide especially with an allied Italy.
 
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I don't know enough about Ethiopia's internal politics at the time. I think if Britain and France are sticking with Italy, it wouldn't be wild for Ethiopia to look to Germany and Japan for aid. Germany supported Ethiopia a bit OTL just to spite Mussolini and the Japanese and Ethiopians had some interesting long-standing relations.
If Afawarq Gebre Iyasus comes to power and the Japanizers are inspired by Japanese Fascists, I can see it happening. The possibility of a National Socialist Ethiopia does sound quite interesting.
 
If Afawarq Gebre Iyasus comes to power and the Japanizers are inspired by Japanese Fascists, I can see it happening. The possibility of a National Socialist Ethiopia does sound quite interesting.

Afawarq Gebre Iyasus supported Italy in both wars.

Haile Selassie with German military advisers and German weapons seems more likely.
 
Afawarq Gebre Iyasus supported Italy in both wars.

Haile Selassie with German military advisers and German weapons seems more likely.
Yes, I know but I was thinking he might come to power with Italian backing - not to mention, he made a couple of comments admiring Fascism. Having someone like Tedla Haile become more radical might also work.

That’s also likely as well.
 
Unless Italy has declared war on Germany. There no reason why the opportunistic dow on France would change..

An opportunistic Italy is more likely to use the opportunity to go after Yugoslavia and Greece and extract minor concessions from France (Aozou, Tunisia border adjustments, Italian schooling in Tunisia and Corsica and Nice and Savoy, etc).
 
An opportunistic Italy is more likely to use the opportunity to go after Yugoslavia and Greece and extract minor concessions from France (Aozou, Tunisia border adjustments, Italian schooling in Tunisia and Corsica and Nice and Savoy, etc).
Why would they when they didn't in otl. With or without Ethiopia there no reason for Italy not to miscalculate the situation as per otl declare war with the belief that peace will come soon.
 
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