Perhaps. Can I ask what you think will happen with the current developments?
Ethiopia Rises - a Meiji Ethiopia TL
- Thread starter twistedirregular
- Start date
Samsara123
Banned
Even if it does theres a solid rally point for Tsarists in Constantinople including warships from the black sea fleet if it stays loyal.
And if the Tsarists and Ethiopians lock down the Bosphorous no food will be coming in from that route and the Imperial Japanese fleet will more readily jump Siberia, even if the Soviets survive the onslaught it would most likely be very reduced in size, it would also give the Ethiopians the chance to conquer all of the black sea states
The Great War Pt. 5
Now that Istanbul had capitulated to the Entente, the substantial numbers of their troops and material in the Middle East could be redirected to the European Fronts that had become static and brutal trench warfare. The Treaty of Samsun reduced the Ottomans to nothing more than an Anatolian rump state while Entente forces were ushered in to enforce the Treaty of Samsun and back the Sultan's government. In Ethiopian-occupied Anatolia, an Ethiopian administration had been negotiating with the Turkish National Movement, ultimately choosing to support an independent Turkish state to expand Ethiopian influence. The TNM was backed with material support, mainly military equipment that had been acquired from Britain and France instead of the Ethiopian-produced Moskob while Ethiopia would receive economic concessions and investment opportunities. The impatience of other Entente members in withdrawing from Anatolia had allowed for the Ethiopian administration to consolidate its position in eastern and southern Anatolia before expanding further, through the TNM's advance. Haile Selassie had turned to Tanganikya where Fitawrari Habte Giyorgis had become a prominent figure, especially amongst the pro-independence factions while Anglo-French pressure desired his dismissal which Haile Selassie had refused. He was instead retired from the Ethiopian military and became Tanganikya's Governor in the Ethiopian-occupied regions, much to the displeasure of the resident British administrators while Haile Selassie put him to work in stirring up pro-independence movements. These efforts had been successful, alongside Ethiopian decisions to establish a self-governing administration that was under the ultimate control of Habte Giyorgis who was all-too happy to enact such measures. Haile Selassie sought to transform Tanganikya into an Ethiopian client state that was to be tied to the Solomon Dynasty in order to not only increase the Ethiopian sphere of influence in Eastern Africa but to ensure the decline of the Great Powers that opposed Ethiopia rising to prominence - mainly Britain and Italy. However, Ethiopia would temporarily distracted by an independent African state on her border - it could even be considered within her borders! - in the form of Mohammad Abdullah Hassan's Dervish State.
The Dervish State had risen to power during the Scramble for Africa where it defended against British and Ethiopian attempts at annexation while Italy hadn't done much, focusing on consolidating control over her coastal protectorates. Ethiopia eventually gave up on militarily conquering the Dervish but under their Emperor Menelik II, approached the proto-state with offers of protecting the Dervish State against European expansionism if she'd accept Ethiopian Suzerainty and allowed for Ethiopia to exploit her natural resources. Mohammad had accepted, securing the Ethiopian southeastern flank against Italian expansionism that came from Italian Somaliland as well as to the north where the British had established their own Somaliland colony. This had allowed Ethiopia to focus on the issue of instituting reforms and modernization but Addis Ababa agreed to provide the Dervish State with advisors and material support that was apparently for the defense against the Italian encroachment that Mohammad swore was occurring. Despite suspicions in Addis Ababa, Menelik reluctantly agreed to this while a fear of Mohammad simply renouncing Ethiopian Suzerainty began to increase as Mohammad established the National Dervish Army. The Dervish State was becoming a somewhat modernized state, attempting to follow the example of Ethiopia who had been provided with investment opportunities by the Dervish. However, Mohammad was being wooed by the same Great Power that Ethiopia had supported him to oppose - the Kingdom of Italy, a nation that had been humiliated by the defeats in Eritrea and sought to contain Ethiopian influence. Rome had opted to do this by supporting the Dervish, offering them the necessary finances and arms support to defend any Declaration of Independence in exchange for economic concessions. Mohammad accepted but he was wary of replacing an Ethiopian overlord with the Italians and refused any Italian military advisors that might violate the Dervish State's independence.
However, the outbreak of the World War and Ethiopia's entrance into the Entente had compromised the plans of both Mohammad and Rome, the latter being an ally of Ethiopia. Italian material support was withdrawn as the Royal Italian Army needed them for the front on the Austro-Hungarian border and Hassan observed as more Somalis were conscripted for service in the Imperial Ethiopian military, Haile Selassie having relaxed religious policies. This was met with favor in an increasingly isolated Dervish State and so, Mohammad decided that now was the time to take action - during the expanding Yemeni Revolt of 1915. The NDA would rapidly overrun undermanned Ethiopian garrison units in the Ogaden that had been stripped of men for the fronts in Mesopotamia, Egypt, Europe and German East Africa which boosted Dervish morale. This sparked a wave of Somali nationalism amongst many Somalis of the Ogaden but many more remained hesitant to join the Dervish cause, fearing Ethiopian reprisals against the Ogadeni Somalis - not to mention, the World War had sparked a wave of Ethiopian nationalism throughout all of Ethiopia, even those non-Christian territories that had been incorporated decades earlier. The relaxation of discriminatory religious policies and the Emperor's promise of equality for all religions had sparked hope for a better future amongst the forcibly-converted and/or non-Christian Ethiopians. Mohammad hadn't expected this but nonetheless, he began making attempts at bolstering Somali nationalism with the gains the National Dervish Army had made against the weakened Ethiopian garrisons. Haile Selassie had been alarmed at this, calling back troops from Tanganikya and Himyar to crush the Dervish who had managed to claim a substantial part of the Ogaden region while conscripting more men from Eritrea and Equatoria. The arrival of Imperial Ethiopian troops in the Ogadeni region quickly reversed the gains made on the part of the Dervish Movement and ended up pushing the National Dervish forces to the east, forcing the remnants of the Dervish leadership - including a wounded Mohammad - into Italian Somaliland. In the Somali countryside, Mohammad Abdullah Hassan focused on preserving the battered battalions of the NDA and finding recruits for another war that was to be waged to "free the oppressed Somalis of the Ogaden".
Meanwhile, Ethiopia forcibly consolidated its control over the Dervish regions that had been based in the Ogaden and executed all stragglers left behind by a retreating National Dervish Army. The recent revolts in territories considered to be apart of Ethiopia proper had sent shockwaves throughout many in Ethiopia as the question of independence became increasingly prominent not only in the Imperial Court but in Equatoria and Himyar. Equatoria remained loyal to Emperor Haile Selassie's government ever since the Mahdist War but there was the issue of Equatorian nationalism that had been prominent among intellectuals that had received their education in Egypt or Europe. The Ethiopian government had already granted Equatoria considerable autonomy, similar to that of Eritrea and the Ogaden but Equatorian nationalists continued to demand independence - to the surprise of Addis Ababa, Equatorian soldiers had begun joining them but protests and nationalist demonstrations remained peaceful. Haile Selassie visited Rumbek - the capital of Equatoria - in 1916 where he met with various politicians as well as Equatorian nationalists in order to peacefully negotiate the question of independence. The Rumbek Conference resulted in the "Equatorian Question" to be moved to a post-war date where it could accompany overall peace talks that were to occur once the Central Powers had been defeated. Similar conferences in other territories that had been recently annexed by the Ethiopians were to be hosted in Addis Ababa in order to resolve the "Non-Ethiopian Question". For now, Haile Selassie and his government wanted to focus on the World War and defeating the Central Powers so that the ever-mounting losses in lives could be stopped at post-war peace talks.
In the Russian Empire, General Alexei Brusilov had convinced STAVKA into accepting his plans for Southwest Front to launch a massive offensive in Galicia and expel Austro-German forces from the region entirely. He had managed to secure the support of Tsar Nicholas II who was eager to capitalize on any success that might save the discontent that was rampant throughout Russia as a result of massive human losses and poor military decisions. This allowed for the resistance that Brusilov was facing from commanders such as General Alexei Evert - Commander of the Russian Western Army Group - whose loyalty to the Tsar secured their support for Brusilov's offensive. Brusilov planned to introduce new and radical tactics against Austro-German forces such as the use of "shock troops", short but heavy and accurate artillery bombardments, gradual encroachments on enemy trenches under creeping barrage, etc. He hoped for Russian forces to successfully seize the towns of Kovel, Lemberg, Lutsk, Brest and even Warsaw but the latter would depend on how offensive-oriented Evert proved to be. The successes of the Anglo-Ethiopian troops in Mesopotamia, Egypt and Sinai-Palestine had allowed for Russian troops and material to be shifted away from the Caucasian Fronts to be sent to the Eastern Front where they could reinforce Russian positions. Soon enough, the Russian Empire launched the 1916 Brusilov Offensive which proved to be the most substantial and influential Russian Offensive since the Russian invasion of East Prussia in 1914.
The Dervish State had risen to power during the Scramble for Africa where it defended against British and Ethiopian attempts at annexation while Italy hadn't done much, focusing on consolidating control over her coastal protectorates. Ethiopia eventually gave up on militarily conquering the Dervish but under their Emperor Menelik II, approached the proto-state with offers of protecting the Dervish State against European expansionism if she'd accept Ethiopian Suzerainty and allowed for Ethiopia to exploit her natural resources. Mohammad had accepted, securing the Ethiopian southeastern flank against Italian expansionism that came from Italian Somaliland as well as to the north where the British had established their own Somaliland colony. This had allowed Ethiopia to focus on the issue of instituting reforms and modernization but Addis Ababa agreed to provide the Dervish State with advisors and material support that was apparently for the defense against the Italian encroachment that Mohammad swore was occurring. Despite suspicions in Addis Ababa, Menelik reluctantly agreed to this while a fear of Mohammad simply renouncing Ethiopian Suzerainty began to increase as Mohammad established the National Dervish Army. The Dervish State was becoming a somewhat modernized state, attempting to follow the example of Ethiopia who had been provided with investment opportunities by the Dervish. However, Mohammad was being wooed by the same Great Power that Ethiopia had supported him to oppose - the Kingdom of Italy, a nation that had been humiliated by the defeats in Eritrea and sought to contain Ethiopian influence. Rome had opted to do this by supporting the Dervish, offering them the necessary finances and arms support to defend any Declaration of Independence in exchange for economic concessions. Mohammad accepted but he was wary of replacing an Ethiopian overlord with the Italians and refused any Italian military advisors that might violate the Dervish State's independence.
However, the outbreak of the World War and Ethiopia's entrance into the Entente had compromised the plans of both Mohammad and Rome, the latter being an ally of Ethiopia. Italian material support was withdrawn as the Royal Italian Army needed them for the front on the Austro-Hungarian border and Hassan observed as more Somalis were conscripted for service in the Imperial Ethiopian military, Haile Selassie having relaxed religious policies. This was met with favor in an increasingly isolated Dervish State and so, Mohammad decided that now was the time to take action - during the expanding Yemeni Revolt of 1915. The NDA would rapidly overrun undermanned Ethiopian garrison units in the Ogaden that had been stripped of men for the fronts in Mesopotamia, Egypt, Europe and German East Africa which boosted Dervish morale. This sparked a wave of Somali nationalism amongst many Somalis of the Ogaden but many more remained hesitant to join the Dervish cause, fearing Ethiopian reprisals against the Ogadeni Somalis - not to mention, the World War had sparked a wave of Ethiopian nationalism throughout all of Ethiopia, even those non-Christian territories that had been incorporated decades earlier. The relaxation of discriminatory religious policies and the Emperor's promise of equality for all religions had sparked hope for a better future amongst the forcibly-converted and/or non-Christian Ethiopians. Mohammad hadn't expected this but nonetheless, he began making attempts at bolstering Somali nationalism with the gains the National Dervish Army had made against the weakened Ethiopian garrisons. Haile Selassie had been alarmed at this, calling back troops from Tanganikya and Himyar to crush the Dervish who had managed to claim a substantial part of the Ogaden region while conscripting more men from Eritrea and Equatoria. The arrival of Imperial Ethiopian troops in the Ogadeni region quickly reversed the gains made on the part of the Dervish Movement and ended up pushing the National Dervish forces to the east, forcing the remnants of the Dervish leadership - including a wounded Mohammad - into Italian Somaliland. In the Somali countryside, Mohammad Abdullah Hassan focused on preserving the battered battalions of the NDA and finding recruits for another war that was to be waged to "free the oppressed Somalis of the Ogaden".
Meanwhile, Ethiopia forcibly consolidated its control over the Dervish regions that had been based in the Ogaden and executed all stragglers left behind by a retreating National Dervish Army. The recent revolts in territories considered to be apart of Ethiopia proper had sent shockwaves throughout many in Ethiopia as the question of independence became increasingly prominent not only in the Imperial Court but in Equatoria and Himyar. Equatoria remained loyal to Emperor Haile Selassie's government ever since the Mahdist War but there was the issue of Equatorian nationalism that had been prominent among intellectuals that had received their education in Egypt or Europe. The Ethiopian government had already granted Equatoria considerable autonomy, similar to that of Eritrea and the Ogaden but Equatorian nationalists continued to demand independence - to the surprise of Addis Ababa, Equatorian soldiers had begun joining them but protests and nationalist demonstrations remained peaceful. Haile Selassie visited Rumbek - the capital of Equatoria - in 1916 where he met with various politicians as well as Equatorian nationalists in order to peacefully negotiate the question of independence. The Rumbek Conference resulted in the "Equatorian Question" to be moved to a post-war date where it could accompany overall peace talks that were to occur once the Central Powers had been defeated. Similar conferences in other territories that had been recently annexed by the Ethiopians were to be hosted in Addis Ababa in order to resolve the "Non-Ethiopian Question". For now, Haile Selassie and his government wanted to focus on the World War and defeating the Central Powers so that the ever-mounting losses in lives could be stopped at post-war peace talks.
In the Russian Empire, General Alexei Brusilov had convinced STAVKA into accepting his plans for Southwest Front to launch a massive offensive in Galicia and expel Austro-German forces from the region entirely. He had managed to secure the support of Tsar Nicholas II who was eager to capitalize on any success that might save the discontent that was rampant throughout Russia as a result of massive human losses and poor military decisions. This allowed for the resistance that Brusilov was facing from commanders such as General Alexei Evert - Commander of the Russian Western Army Group - whose loyalty to the Tsar secured their support for Brusilov's offensive. Brusilov planned to introduce new and radical tactics against Austro-German forces such as the use of "shock troops", short but heavy and accurate artillery bombardments, gradual encroachments on enemy trenches under creeping barrage, etc. He hoped for Russian forces to successfully seize the towns of Kovel, Lemberg, Lutsk, Brest and even Warsaw but the latter would depend on how offensive-oriented Evert proved to be. The successes of the Anglo-Ethiopian troops in Mesopotamia, Egypt and Sinai-Palestine had allowed for Russian troops and material to be shifted away from the Caucasian Fronts to be sent to the Eastern Front where they could reinforce Russian positions. Soon enough, the Russian Empire launched the 1916 Brusilov Offensive which proved to be the most substantial and influential Russian Offensive since the Russian invasion of East Prussia in 1914.
damein fisher
Banned
Very nice! Interesting idea to have the Dervish under Ethiopian Suzerainty. I also like how Equitoria is beginning to question its place under Ethiopia, the idea of a South Sudan Dominion-esque state could prove very interesting. Looking forward to just how the war will end. One thing I noticed, in the beginning of this chapter, you said the Ethiopians supported a Turkish state, but since the Ottoman empire *is* basically a Turkish state, did you maybe mean Kurdish or Arab?
damein fisher
Banned
Not really, I am quite interested about the idea of an independent Tanganyika in 1920, but doubt that Ethiopia will be able to do it while spreading influence in the Middle East; unlike there, German East Africa will be mostly be conquered by the British, they are more likely to gain Ruanda-Urundi as a client state or trade concessions in Arabia. Speaking of Arabia, is a unified Arab free state more likely to occur [outside of what Ethiopia takes], since the Ethiopians control most of the Ottoman owned areas and wouldn't want them to fall to the Europeans?
How significant do you think Ethiopian influence in the Middle East/Asia Minor is in comparison to Eastern Africa? In regards to a unified free Arab state, I'll touch on the Hashemites and Arabia in the next chapter - alongside what's been happening in Europe.
damein fisher
Banned
I doubt that they will lose anything [unlike in the Horn, where concessions might be made if Ethiopia doesn't make many Turkish gains], it is likely that the border is redrawn at the de facto border, instead of the line in the desert, which would increase the size of Arabia [which likely becomes a Ethiopian client state during the interwar period]. The British might also not gain Iraq, instead maybe taking more of Cameroon or Togoland. In East Africa, the Ethiopians are separated from German East Africa by Kenya and Uganda, as well as the Belgian Congo, so while many troops help occupy the colony, it is entirely possible the Entente demand that the Ethiopians choose between the Middle East or East Africa. The best Ethiopia can hope for in Tanganyika is the creation of an independent Ruanda-Urundi as a client state, and the existence of Tanganyika under British Suzerainty instead of a protectorate or Colony. The British will be hungry after losing gains in the Middle east and would need a lot of convincing to let the Ethiopians expand outside of that area.
An interesting side effect of Ethiopia's gains could be the non-existence of the Mandate system, with the Entente straight out annexing the German Colonies.
What effects do you think this might have on the rest of Africa?
Can you elaborate on your thinking here?
damein fisher
Banned
Sure, basically my thoughts are that the Ethiopians are going to be most useful in Ottoman controlled Arabia; this is going to be where the Ethiopians can really control the negotiations at the end of the war. Because of this, for the Ethiopians to gain territory or influence outside of this area, they need to trade their already existing occupied lands to the Entente members who control what they want. The reason this is especially true is clear looking at OTL, the Italians were promised Istria and Dalmatia for joining WWI, but got none of it, Japan wanted German East Asia including New Guinea, but they didn't get it. This is because these nations were considered not very helpful.
Ethiopia was helpful ITTL, so they have lots of powerful influence to trade, but the question is would they? In my opinion the answer is no, to control and administrate German East Africa, they need to cross Uganda, which they wouldn't want to do since the alliance here is really only temporary. In the Arabian peninsula, they already have a large chunk of land there, so controlling it wouldn't be nearly as difficult. So in my opinion, it is more likely that the Ethiopians don't trade and instead use their own influence to their advantage. The most I can see the expansionist, European Imperialist hating, Ethiopia trading would be Ethiopian controlled Palestine for a better Aden/Trucial States/Oman border, and Mesopotamia for a protectorate in Darfur. As was written, Ethiopia does not want more European colonies in the Middle East and Africa; it's better that these people stay under the boot of Ethiopia [or Abyssiania? What would the ITTL term be?] than that of the British or the French.
As for the rest of Africa, I could easily see the British at least be more aggressive in their colonization with a powerful non-European state in Africa. We might see a larger proportion of genocide at the hands of the Europeans to wipe out any opposition, fearing it would grow with Ethiopian support.
Of course, reprisals will lead to ever-growing support for Ethiopia which reminds me - what do you think pan-Africanism looks like ITTL?
damein fisher
Banned
Really depends on what happens after WWI, already the concept has a fairly powerful supporter, but the idea of a unified Africa probably is less powerful. Instead we might see stronger pushes for regional unification, so things like Pan-Xhosa, Pan-Somali, etc would be more powerful.
Ataturk already died in the Battle of Baghdad.
An Armenian state has been established under a Russian protectorate.
Probably swear undying loyalty to the Ethiopians and definitely a strong alliance is made
It seems more they'd swear undying loyalty to the Russian Empire, considering it was the primary backer behind the Armenian volunteer units.