Ethiopia pulls an Iran?

Inspired by a conversation with @Word Bearer, I was wondering - what if the 1974 Revolution had instead culminated in the establishment of an Orthodox Christian Republic along the lines of Iran under Atnafu Abate?
 
Why would the church overthrow the monarchy? Didn’t they have a close and mutually beneficial relationship?
I was referring to the 1974 Revolution preceding as it did IOTL except instead of Mengistu Haile Mariam's Marxist regime coming to power, Atnafu Abate becomes the President of an Ethiopian Orthodox Christian Republic in 1975-76 after it manages to successfully consolidate power.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
I was referring to the 1974 Revolution preceding as it did IOTL except instead of Mengistu Haile Mariam's Marxist regime coming to power, Atnafu Abate becomes the President of an Ethiopian Orthodox Christian Republic in 1975-76 after it manages to successfully consolidate power.
There would be a significant overlap between loyal monarchists and devout Orthodox Christians right? Wouldn’t it be more likely for a right-wing countercoup to restore the monarchy, at least as a figurehead?
 
There would be a significant overlap between loyal monarchists and devout Orthodox Christians right? Wouldn’t it be more likely for a right-wing countercoup to restore the monarchy, at least as a figurehead?
Perhaps but I was also thinking of having a faction in the Ethiopian Armed Forces that's Orthodox Christian and Republican - perhaps even a bit Socialist - rise to prominence, playing up the history of Orthodox Christianity (and maybe other Abrahamic religions) to become popular.
How would clerical rule be met by the population?
By Orthodox Christians? I'd assume it wouldn't too bad, in consideration of the fact that Ethiopia's Orthodox Christians make a majority and especially if it provides them with benefits such as welfare or literacy. By Muslims? I don't think it'd go over too well initially - might even spark a Somali intervention.
 
BUMP. What might an Orthodox Christian Ethiopian Republic look like in the modern age?
I don't think it'd be able to exist. The late 70s and 80s would be a bizarro version of what Ethiopia went through IRL: a US-backed government at war with Eritrean, Oromo and Somali separatists. Considering the Ethiopian government would be overtly Christian, I'd imagine Sudan and the Arab monarchies would give substantially more support to the secessionists than occurred IRL.

It's also probable that the USSR wouldn't break with Somalia over the latter invading Ethiopia to take the Ogaden. Considering that IRL Somalia would have won had the Soviets and Cubans not sent troops to defend the embattled Derg, the theocratic Ethiopian government in this scenario is doomed since there's no way the US (assuming Ethiopia was even on good terms with the US) would deploy troops right after the Vietnam War.
 
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I don't think it'd be able to exist. The late 70s and 80s would be a bizarro version of what Ethiopia went through IRL: a US-backed government at war with Eritrean, Oromo and Somali separatists. Considering the Ethiopian government would be overtly Christian, I'd imagine Sudan and the Arab monarchies would give substantially more support to the secessionists than occurred IRL.

It's also probable that the USSR would end up supporting Somalia invading Ethiopia to take the Ogaden. If that happens, with Ethiopian troops tied up over fighting the Eritreans per IRL, the Ethiopian government is doomed since there's no way the US would deploy troops into Ogaden right after the Vietnam War.
Considering that what little material support the US gave to Ethiopia prior to the Ogaden War was enough to crush the Somali Air Force and allow Ethiopia to enjoy complete aerial superiority for the duration of the war, I'm inclined to think that even more American support could do wonders but this might be day-dreaming on my part. I haven't figured out what the Orthodox Christian Republic's views on the Muslims might be but I'd assume it'd need to treat them nicely to avoid direct confrontation with the predominantly Muslim states surrounding it.

I'm not sure if the USSR would support Somalia's invasion of Ethiopia, if it still occurs ITTL.
 
I'm not sure if the USSR would support Somalia's invasion of Ethiopia, if it still occurs ITTL.
Yeah I edited my post. It wouldn't "support" the invasion, since after all the invasion was denounced by the Organisation of African Unity and was a pretty blatant act of aggression, but the USSR wouldn't have decided to send troops to fight on behalf of Ethiopia against Somalia.

In other words, I think Somalia would still be pro-Soviet into the 1980s.

Likewise the USSR would continue supporting the Eritrean guerrillas, unlike IRL where it ceased support in favor of urging them to reconcile with the Derg.

But yeah I still can't really see the government surviving past the Cold War. At the very least, it'd be compelled to agree to multi-party elections after 1990 and you'd probably end up with a lot of violent (if not necessarily guerrilla) conflict even among the Christian segments of the country demanding democracy and an end to constant fighting in Eritrea, Oromia and/or the Ogaden during the 90s.
 
Yeah I edited my post. It wouldn't "support" the invasion, since after all the invasion was denounced by the Organisation of African Unity and was a pretty blatant act of aggression, but the USSR wouldn't have decided to send troops to fight on behalf of Ethiopia against Somalia.

In other words, I think Somalia would still be pro-Soviet into the 1980s.

Likewise the USSR would continue supporting the Eritrean guerrillas, unlike IRL where it ceased support in favor of urging them to reconcile with the Derg.
The Ogaden War ITTL probably would've stalemated without Cuban troops and Soviet advisors to assist Ethiopian forces, meaning that Somalia would hold onto a chunk of the Ogaden.

Probably.

That reminds me - there might be a chance that TTL's Ethiopia might actually give up on holding most of Eritrea, making peace with the EPLF if Ethiopia maintains control over Assab.
 
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I can think of a scenario where this happens - have Abuna Tewophilos (somehow) become disillusioned with the Ethiopian Monarchy and by the time the 1974 Revolution comes around, the Patriarch actively becomes involved in the politics of the Revolution instead of remaining apathetic as he did IOTL. Working alongside the conservative and religious officers (such as Atnafu Abate) to prevent Ethiopia from going Socialist, the religious faction manages to win out by 1975 after launching a purge in the ranks of the low-ranking officers which sees the left-leaning groups' influence diminish rapidly. Despite the pro-Monarchy sentiment in the Orthodox Church, Tewophilos realizes the extent to which the Ethiopian Monarchy has become unpopular as an Orthodox Christian Republic is declared in 1976 in the aftermath of the purges.
 
I can think of a scenario where this happens - have Abuna Tewophilos (somehow) become disillusioned with the Ethiopian Monarchy and by the time the 1974 Revolution comes around, the Patriarch actively becomes involved in the politics of the Revolution instead of remaining apathetic as he did IOTL. Working alongside the conservative and religious officers (such as Atnafu Abate) to prevent Ethiopia from going Socialist, the religious faction manages to win out by 1975 after launching a purge in the ranks of the low-ranking officers which sees the left-leaning groups' influence diminish rapidly. Despite the pro-Monarchy sentiment in the Orthodox Church, Tewophilos realizes the extent to which the Ethiopian Monarchy has become unpopular as an Orthodox Christian Republic is declared in 1976 in the aftermath of the purges.
To add to this scenario - if Tewophilos recognizes the left-leaning sentiment within the Ethiopian Armed Forces during 1974-76, he might eventually evolve into the same role that Iran's Khomeini played in the Islamic Revolution but I'd say this hinges on how well Tewophilos proves himself at politicking and if he comes out in support of the Revolution's reforms.
 
To add to this scenario - if Tewophilos recognizes the left-leaning sentiment within the Ethiopian Armed Forces during 1974-76, he might eventually evolve into the same role that Iran's Khomeini played in the Islamic Revolution but I'd say this hinges on how well Tewophilos proves himself at politicking and if he comes out in support of the Revolution's reforms.
The man seemed to be relatively progressive so this could happen.
 
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