Ethiopia lets go of a smaller Eritrea early on?

[GauchoBadger]

Could Ethiopia, instead of denying any autonomy to the rebellious region of Eritrea and embroiling itself in a costly conflict that would end up facilitating the undoing of its ruling regime, have properly negotiated with the ELF and/or EPLF and granted independence to a chunk of Eritrea, while retaining the border areas to the south of the Mareb river and east of the Gulf of Zula? What would have been the consequences of this deal if it were to be accepted by both parties? What would have happened if Ethiopia still held the port of Asseb? Could Djibouti have ended up poorer?

 

[Hagre]

Supposing the Eritreans don't insist on retaining all of the coastline, it could work, though Eritrea probably ends up a de-facto economic dependency like Djibouti. Tigray and Afar are also considerably wealthier with direct access to the Red Sea and pan-Afar aspirations being reaffirmed could mean more boldness on their part. Depending on when this deal takes place, it could also mean the TPLF is doomed and ends up being wiped out as the Derg brings Tigray back into the fold permanently.

Could've also happened with the '98 War. My father is still pissed over the fact that Isaias apparently offered to concede the port of Assab in negotiations while his own unit was 37 km away from the port and Meles refused, for whatever reason.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Bump.

Apparently, a partition like this was suggested to the UN by a British delegation prior to the federation of Ethiopia and Eritrea in 1952, with the majority Muslim areas of Eritrea becoming a part of Sudan. Could that have happened?

I'm also still curious as to what would have happened to Djibouti. In a sense, Djibouti's national fate is tied to its port, and if its privileged position as Ethiopia's proxy coastline is lost because of Ethiopian control of a coastline further north, the country could find itself in rather dire straits. Might an alternate Djiboutian Civil War spell an end to the country as an united force, or would the Ethiopians prefer to keep Djibouti around if just to divide and rule Afar nationalists?

 

[TheSwedishHistorian]

It certainly would have been much better than OTL

 

[TheSwedishHistorian]

Considering the amount of poverty and fear that is in Eritrea it would be 10 times better than the wartorn country we have today. Eritrea could be a semi-prosperous country in this timeline

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Bump.

Apparently, a partition like this was suggested to the UN by a British delegation prior to the federation of Ethiopia and Eritrea in 1952, with the majority Muslim areas of Eritrea becoming a part of Sudan. Could that have happened?

I'm also still curious as to what would have happened to Djibouti. In a sense, Djibouti's national fate is tied to its port, and if its privileged position as Ethiopia's proxy coastline is lost because of Ethiopian control of a coastline further north, the country could find itself in rather dire straits. Might an alternate Djiboutian Civil War spell an end to the country as an united force, or would the Ethiopians prefer to keep Djibouti around if just to divide and rule Afar nationalists?

Djibouti still is strategically and economically important without Ethiopia, there's a reason almost every major country has a military base there.

 

[Fulano]

Could've also happened with the '98 War. My father is still pissed over the fact that Isaias apparently offered to concede the port of Assab in negotiations while his own unit was 37 km away from the port and Meles refused, for whatever reason.

I wonder what were the reasons for rejecting the proposal. It really sounds like a bargain, unless there were several restrictions at its use, something akin Bolivia and the Boliviamar port.

 

[ahmedali]

Djibouti still is strategically and economically important without Ethiopia, there's a reason almost every major country has a military base there.

It could easily vanish if the Ethiopians made the same strategy in Assab