Many Americans think that if the CSA won the Civil War, slavery would survive into the present day, and we'd have blacks doing all our chores. Nothing could be more wrong.
First of all, the cotton trade-the main reason slavery existed-would not always be favorable to the CSA. While the British tactitly supported the Confederacy, within five minutes of the CSA gaining independence, they'd realize (1)they still have plenty of cotton from India and Egypt and (2)nobody wants to trade with a country that utilizes slavery. With the collapse of the cotton market, owning slaves would no longer be economically viable.
The majority of people who believe this do so out of ignorance of American history. 90% of the CSA-victory TLs on this board all have the CSA getting rid of slavery prior to 1900.
I think that by 1900, the vast majority of blacks would be emancipated. As for the Confederate Constitution, it didn't guarantee slavery-it simply said that the central government had no right to interfere. It didn't say anything about state governments. I believe that as slavery dwindled, the state governments would see the futility of continuing the practice and pass anti-slavery laws.
Manumission akin to the British manumission of slaves in 1833 is most likely (so yes, anti-slavery laws. But there are different types of anti-slavery laws) IMO: all slaves under 6 immediately freed and no new slaves, state compensation from the ground up after that. Remember that changing the state for political reasons is easy, changing people's opinions (especially opinions on race) is another matter entirely.
Otherwise, read the Confederate Constitution. In a CSA-victory TL, any new states HAVE to be slave states and cannot outlaw slavery. State governments, ironically, do not have the power to outlaw slavery. Only with a Constitutional Amendment can the CSA get rid of slavery. Instead of states outlawing slavery one-by-one like in the USA, the CSA would have manumission all at once across the country. It doesn't change much of your rough TL, just the legality.
Equal rights may be harder to obtain. I don't see blacks gaining equal rights any earlier than five decades after the CSA's independence.
Please clarify: you mean equal rights legally? Not socially right?
However, white racism may be lessened slightly by the abscence of Reconstruction. Blacks may gain equal rights in the 1920s or the immediate post-WWII era as a reward for military service.
You're assuming of course, that blacks would be allowed to join the military in the first place. It's plausible, but the CSA was only beginning to arm slaves when they were in the most DIRE of situations. Once achieving independence, nothing short of governmental collapse would make Southerners start to arm ex-slaves. Especially if manumission creates a new underclass that eventually revolts for their equal rights.
Of course, it may take a reworking of the Confederate Constitution, but it's doable.
In conclusion, get your head out of Kevin Willmott's* ass and see history clearly. Slavery's days were numbered, and a Confederate victory would have only delayed its end.
*Kevin Willmott is the direction of C.S.A., a "mockumentary" smearing the CSA by claiming that a victorious Confederacy would simply hold on to slavery forever. The film is less a work of art and more propaganda for the official, politically correct version of history.
Willmott's mockumentary was a social commentary on how our society is just as racist as the CSA's was. It's not art, propaganda, or alternate history, nor is it meant to be taken as such.