Essai en Guerre: an FFO-inspired TL

[spkaca]

If the Italians have lost two good sized chunks of their North African Army and are in a definite bind, and Il Duce is committed to Greece, does he really press hard for the Germans to help in Africa? Or Greece? or Yes....

Yes he will, but it might already be too late as far as Africa is concerned...

Can the US (Rock Island Arsenal?) produce enough M-2, M-3 Light Tanks in time to be useful additions for both the French and British North African forces?

The fighting in North Africa will be almost farcically primitive by later war standards - FT17s for the French, A10s for the British, M11s for the Italians.

I would expect that the French, with their long experience with motorized Saharan desert travel, would have some analog to the LRDG

I do think there are (at this point in the TL) a gang a cheerful French LRDG-equivalents zooming around west of Tripoli in trucks and Panhards, gathering intel, smashing things and enjoying themselves hugely.

I could recognize most US made aircraft here but I was a bit mystified by the "H.75"; I did guess it might be what it turned out to be--the P-36 Hawk, known to Commonwealth operators as "Mohawk."

Yes - sometimes known as the 'Hawk 75', apparently sometimes called the 'Type 75' in French service.

This led me to wonder how fast France Fighting On might get P-40 "Warhawks" and what they would call them. OTL this model was already on order when the Battle of France erupted, and so there should be at least 100 "H.81" on the way to French forces in North Africa.

As fast as Curtiss can ship them. The H.81 will equip many French units including a certain famous Group de Chasse.

Algeria can upgrade its domestic industry, which was probably skimpy compared to metropolitan France but I guess pretty good by colonial standards, with priority Allied infusions of equipment and bootstrapping general industry under that war priority.

Algeria's main value will be as a base, a recruiting area, and a source of raw materials; but upgrading its industry & infrastructure will be a priority, and ITTL US help will start to flow in 1941. OTL the decrepitude of the North African railways was a constraint on the Allies after TORCH; but here the Americans will start fixing that pretty much as soon as Lend-Lease passes.

I have every confidence of course the Allies win on all fronts, probably with the USSR being an Ally, almost certainly with heavy US involvement though not 100 percent certain

I am 100% certain. The US could not stay out in the long run, or even the medium.

I rate Barbarossa as practically certain to happen

That's the Real War as far as Berlin is concerned. 1941 is by far the best time to try it (though, of course, still not a good time).

Japan attacking any western allies makes US entry into war at the very least against Japan almost certain anyway

If anything, France fighting on means a more certain collision of Western and Japanese interests.

Some might suppose the Allies (perhaps better called "Entente" at this point?)

I'm calling them either Allies or occasionally the 'Union'. The Franco-British Union proposal has been accepted - in practice what it means is a closer alliance and a redoubled commitment. All other considerations have been put on hold for the duration of the war.

I judge that even handing the Red Army some extra idiot balls plus multiplying the Axis assault a bit more, with Rommel et al, can only result in the Germans pushing a bit farther

Yes, and we'll see what Rommel gets up to.

We might see Greece be a theater that quite offsets any savings to the Axis forces coming from preempting losses in North Africa, and of course Italy is vulnerable to invasion that much earlier too

Yes and yes.

Any chance that with France Fighting On, a decision was made to hold in Narvik, retaining a bit of Free Norway for the crown prince to lead Norwegian regular forces in, and to limit later German ability to impede White Sea convoys to the Soviets? I suppose not, the priority to consolidate what force France had would probably lead to writing it off much as OTL or even more abruptly if possible, which is a shame

Probably correct, I've assumed this.

In practice it looks like Jerry is pretty much doing as OTL

Yes, they are thinking about the Real War. The Med is an even less attractive theatre to them than OTL. As far as Berlin is concerned, Italy gets all the benefits of successes there - the Med offers Germany nothing except suntans. The Axis powers after all believe in sacro egoismo.

French Africa might more conceivably become a sustainable thing postwar

Quite possibly: the butterflies will be major. No TORCH, no Tunisia campaign, no Vichy laws, no Setif incident...

nor do I think France can be liberated a lot earlier than OTL

I agree, although the logistics will be much easier for the Allies, France can't be liberated until the full development of Allied combat power, which is a long way off.

the one thing the Japanese cannot try to do with their bayonets is sit on them

No soft landings indeed.

If Tunis is available as a base for Entente air operations, then Malta should be much easier to restock with RAF planes, correct? That may obviate the need for much of the "club runs" by the RN

Yes, much easier. A minor tragedy butterflied will be Malta's ordeal. Also, lower attrition of the RAF and RN , especially in 1941, will have butterflies.

If Tunis, or Sfax are available as a base for Entente air ops, then doesn't that also mean that the re-stocking supply line for warplanes to Egypt is shortened considerably?

Not sure, the way things are going, that there will be much need to send warplanes to Egypt.

Italian convoys to Tripoli or Sirte have to be higher risk

Yes. Because Mussolini has been naughty, he'll be getting a lump of coal soon.

 

[steamboy]

IIRC the Hawks were pretty decent at low level combat, kinda like the Tomahawks and Aircobras but were shite at higher altitude (IE bomber interception heights) so if the French are getting a load of US stuff, they're getting very good low level and ground support aircraft.

 

[spkaca]

IIRC the Hawks were pretty decent at low level combat, kinda like the Tomahawks and Aircobras but were shite at higher altitude (IE bomber interception heights) so if the French are getting a load of US stuff, they're getting very good low level and ground support aircraft.

OTL the RAF took over a lot of French orders. The Armee de l'Air will be getting P-40s, Glenn Martin 167s (known as Marylands to the RAF, much used in the Med/ NA theatre) and DB-7s (known as Bostons to the RAF). If anything the AdA will in the ATL have better aircraft than the RAF in the Med in 1941 - the RAF (outside thew UK) will have mostly Hurricanes and Blenheims.

 

[X Oristos]

Excellent start! I m looking forward to read more!

 

[Driftless]

I seem to recall there was discussion of a manufacturing plant being built in the US South to build French tanks, but that idea collapsed with the historic events of 1940. Was that a real historic idea, or something proposed as an AH idea on this site?

 

[spkaca]

I seem to recall there was discussion of a manufacturing plant being built in the US South to build French tanks, but that idea collapsed with the historic events of 1940. Was that a real historic idea, or something proposed as an AH idea on this site?

Sounds like something from Blunted Sickle (which BTW is a majestic oak next to this TL, a puny thorn-tree by comparison). Here, I suspect that French tank types will - somewhat unfairly - get blamed for The Setback of May-June, so the US will be supplying American designs only.

 

[Starinski]

There were plans to produce the B1Bis and the S35 in Savannah, Georgia. I can find the source if you need me to.

 

[Triune Kingdom]

There were plans to produce the B1Bis and the S35 in Savannah, Georgia. I can find the source if you need me to.

I have heard something along these lines too.

Though, it should be considered that French are taking a very good look at themselves and their performance during those fateful days, so some changes could occur to the designs in question. I mean, IOTL there were already plans to upgrade both B1 and S35, so we could see somewhat modernized designs entering service with the French. OFC, this will take time, though I do think that M3s (both Stuart and Lee/Grant), could be seen as best solution for short term, until those production sources are up and running.

It would also be interesting to see what the exposure (to a much greater extent then IOTL) of US designers to French designs/ideas, could have on domestic US design. Could this realistically result in M4 Sherman coming in somewhat earlier then IOTL?

US Army was influenced by the French to a certain degree, mostly in regards to the artillery doctrine, but with more Free French ITTL around, could this extend to the tank design to some degree? Not to the extent of US Army tankers riding in Somua S. 40 or whatever, but more in regards to AFV design and their intended purpose.

 

[spkaca]

Extract from War in the Middle Sea, by James Gleeson, ch.3

...the arrival of Fliegerkorps X in Sicily improved the situation in the central Mediterranean. Malta suffered a series of heavy raids, to the point where only a handful of fighters remained operational. Given these circumstances, the Italian navy decided, under intense pressure from both Rome and Berlin, that it could run a convoy to Tripoli in January carrying the first small instalment of German troops and equipment, as well as Italian reinforcements. ‘The situation had become desperate,’ commented Marshal Balbo later, ‘we had little left to defend Tripoli, the French had reached the border and the English had destroyed 10th Army’s power to resist. The risk was great, but necessary at the time.’
The Supermarina debated the route for the convoy at length. ‘We knew,’ said Admiral Iachino later, ‘that the destiny of Libya, the course of the war, and Italy’s national destiny, were all bound together in this weighty decision.’ Fliegerkorps X could protect it whether it went west or east of Sicily and Malta, but not all the way to Tripoli. The Italians had become painfully aware of the numerous French submarines active to the west. They also had to take into account the certainty of heavy air attack from Tunisia. All this meant that the Supermarina decided on the eastern route, where they hoped to escape detection, but did so with great trepidation. Of course, Admirals Cunningham and Godfroy understood the situation, and had made arrangements.
The convoy left Naples on the 5th. In the small hours of the 6th the convoy passed Messina and during the day proceeded south under air cover. All this activity could not go altogether unnoticed, however. Signals intercepts revealed the existence of the convoy, and at midday a DB-7 from Sfax gave the convoy’s position.
As night fell on the 6th, the cruisers of Force K, Southampton, Newcastle and Birmingham, together with five destroyers, caught up with the convoy. All three cruisers had radar which gave them a large advantage, and had practised their tactics.
The battle became known as the Strage d’Epifania. Only one of the merchant ships, the Annibale, escaped by fleeing westwards, only to be sunk before dawn by a French submarine; three of the escorts also sank. Several British ships took damage, but none of it serious enough to slow them down, and the force broke off the action at 1 am and headed east at top speed, coming under the cover of aircraft from the Illustrious at dawn. The entire fleet then returned to Alexandria. German aircraft sent to search for the ships in the morning found nothing. Admiral Cunningham had taken a calculated risk, which paid off spectacularly. ‘It was the biggest lump of coal we could imagine,’ said Balbo later. ‘After that I knew all was lost.’
The OKH now revolted against the idea of trying to save Tripoli. General Halder noted, ‘Although most of the German troops were rescued, all their equipment was lost, including more than fifty vehicles. We cannot afford such waste in such a peripheral theatre.’ To his relief, Hitler agreed. ‘We have other plans for 1941,’ he said, ‘all we need is for Mussolini to hold them off for a year. After that we can mop up.’

 

[Starinski]

I have heard something along these lines too.

Though, it should be considered that French are taking a very good look at themselves and their performance during those fateful days, so some changes could occur to the designs in question. I mean, IOTL there were already plans to upgrade both B1 and S35, so we could see somewhat modernized designs entering service with the French. OFC, this will take time, though I do think that M3s (both Stuart and Lee/Grant), could be seen as best solution for short term, until those production sources are up and running.

It would also be interesting to see what the exposure (to a much greater extent then IOTL) of US designers to French designs/ideas, could have on domestic US design. Could this realistically result in M4 Sherman coming in somewhat earlier then IOTL?

US Army was influenced by the French to a certain degree, mostly in regards to the artillery doctrine, but with more Free French ITTL around, could this extend to the tank design to some degree? Not to the extent of US Army tankers riding in Somua S. 40 or whatever, but more in regards to AFV design and their intended purpose.

Using the factory plant at Savannah, the French could try to produce a modified S-35, with a 3-man turret, and a longer 47mm. But it won't reach the frontline until Spring 1941.
I'm taking FFO as a source here.

 

[Some Bloke]

Using the factory plant at Savannah, the French could try to produce a modified S-35, with a 3-man turret, and a longer 47mm. But it won't reach the frontline until Spring 1941.
I'm taking FFO as a source here.

I'm guessing the gun could also be upgraded to a 6 pounder or 75 millimetre calibre

 

[Triune Kingdom]

Using the factory plant at Savannah, the French could try to produce a modified S-35, with a 3-man turret, and a longer 47mm. But it won't reach the frontline until Spring 1941.
I'm taking FFO as a source here.

I am unsure, but there were plans IOTL to do so, but Fall of France interrupted them? Though, if they do go forward with their plans to produce French designs in Savannah plant, some further changes could occur to the design, especially since Free French are reliant on British and US for supply.

I mean, while French 47mm gun should still be good enough against Axis armour in '41 and going into '42, it is not produced by either US or UK, so stocks of weapons and ammunition are a limited asset, which will have to be replaced. It can be argued that they instead go for British 6pdr gun, it makes more sense, especially once the US does adopt the same weapon, so we could see TTLs version of S-40/41 being armed with 6pdr gun?

There is also the fact that the French were working on G1 tank, which was supposed to carry a 75mm, while US is working on the same thing with M4 Sherman, though it is still some time away. Still, as a stopgap TTLs Savannah Somua S-41, with simplified hull shape, three man turret and a 6pdr gun could be a very competitive tank design, while work is being done on tanks capable of carrying 75mm gun in turret. Who knows, maybe we see TTL feature something like SARL-42, although with Sherman turret instead of that strangely shaped turret which was planned IOTL?

OFC, that is presuming that they do start building their own designs there, as who knows what can happen during negotiations between Franco-British and US, especially as Dollars become an issue, even if not to the same extent as IOTL. Ram tank could make an appearance, considering that it uses M3 chassis, which would allow for quicker introduction, and IOTL they did come to the same conclusion in September of '40, and considerably greater number of tanks are needed, as F-B Union has somewhat larger number of troops at its disposal. I mean, French did have considerable experience with cast hulls, which could help speed up its introduction and production schedule somewhat.

Some interesting times are ahead, that is for certain.

 

[spkaca]

as a stopgap TTLs Savannah Somua S-41, with simplified hull shape, three man turret and a 6pdr gun could be a very competitive tank design

I had not thought much about tank types, but I like the sound of this so much I will find a way to bring it in. It would serve a good narrative purpose too - a French tank, with a British gun, built in the US - illustrating the nature of the ATL Allied effort in 1940-2.

 

[Starinski]

Here it is : page 114
https://www.google.fr/books/edition...on+B1bis+america&pg=PA114&printsec=frontcover
and

Mobility, shock, and firepower: The Emergence of the U.S. Army's Armor Branch, 1917-1945

From the Preface: The following pages provide a narrative analysis of the U.S. Army's development of armored organizations and their related doctrine, materiel, and training activities in the period 1917-1945. This period marked the emergence of clear principles of armored warfare that became...

www.google.fr

 

[diestormlie]

Loving this TL. France Fights on TLs have always been one of my favourite 'Genres', and one I've found tragically underserved.

Following with great interest.

 

[Driftless]

OFC, that is presuming that they do start building their own designs there, as who knows what can happen during negotiations between Franco-British and US, especially as Dollars become an issue, even if not to the same extent as IOTL.

Historically, the French got their gold reserves out of the Metropole just ahead of the Germans, but most was tied up in Vichy's possession for several months. I'd guess here, the gold reserve is still in the possession of the "FFO" French authorities, which should simplify and speed up any financial deals.

 

[Triune Kingdom]

I had not thought much about tank types, but I like the sound of this so much I will find a way to bring it in. It would serve a good narrative purpose too - a French tank, with a British gun, built in the US - illustrating the nature of the ATL Allied effort in 1940-2.

Well, with your permission OFC, I would like to take the design mentioned here and bring it to the Alt.AFV thread, to see just how viable the idea is, what further changes and evolutions the design could go through, and lastly to get some pictures of the AFVs in qeustion?

My own thoughts were that, in the interest of time, they go with what was planned for Somua S40, so hull is longer and somewhat simplified in shape and construction, with extra roadwheels. Engine is going to be interesting, according to Wiki, they planned for 220hp Diesel, but for reasons of logistics, TTL they should go for Petrol as majority of other vehicles used by Entante is likely to be using petrol engines, IMHO. Turret is also something that will be interesting to see them wrangle with, as I am unsure will their planned turret (ARL 2C) would be big enough to house both 3 men and 6pdr? With that in mind, they could be looking for an alternative, like Valentine 6pdr turret, though that would be only a 2 men turret, unless they redesign it, which would kind of . Other options are either Ram or Sherman turrets, with Ram the most likely option, if only because it would be ready somewhat sooner then Sherman.

Lastly, it may have been the best, if the goal is getting AFV in production and combat as soon as possible, for them to try and design an enlarged version of ARL 2C turret? It seems simple enough in shape and construction, and considering just how problematic the turrets were for the French in the interwar period, they might just decide that quick&dirty is the best possible solution...

 

[Driftless]

^^^ If the French tank plant in the US were to get built and come into operation, (under this new situation) how long might that take? Timing would likely play a role in designs too, I'd guess. If they go all-in-money's-no- object, could it be operational in 9-12 months? If they get various material and tool constraints and congressional meddling, twice as long?

 

[Driftless]

Extract from War in the Middle Sea, by James Gleeson, ch.3

...the arrival of Fliegerkorps X in Sicily improved the situation in the central Mediterranean. Malta suffered a series of heavy raids, to the point where only a handful of fighters remained operational. Given these circumstances, the Italian navy decided, under intense pressure from both Rome and Berlin, that it could run a convoy to Tripoli in January carrying the first small instalment of German troops and equipment, as well as Italian reinforcements. ‘The situation had become desperate,’ commented Marshal Balbo later, ‘we had little left to defend Tripoli, the French had reached the border and the English had destroyed 10th Army’s power to resist. The risk was great, but necessary at the time.’
The Supermarina debated the route for the convoy at length. ‘We knew,’ said Admiral Iachino later, ‘that the destiny of Libya, the course of the war, and Italy’s national destiny, were all bound together in this weighty decision.’ Fliegerkorps X could protect it whether it went west or east of Sicily and Malta, but not all the way to Tripoli. The Italians had become painfully aware of the numerous French submarines active to the west. They also had to take into account the certainty of heavy air attack from Tunisia. All this meant that the Supermarina decided on the eastern route, where they hoped to escape detection, but did so with great trepidation. Of course, Admirals Cunningham and Godfroy understood the situation, and had made arrangements.
The convoy left Naples on the 5th. In the small hours of the 6th the convoy passed Messina and during the day proceeded south under air cover. All this activity could not go altogether unnoticed, however. Signals intercepts revealed the existence of the convoy, and at midday a DB-7 from Sfax gave the convoy’s position.
As night fell on the 6th, the cruisers of Force K, Southampton, Newcastle and Birmingham, together with five destroyers, caught up with the convoy. All three cruisers had radar which gave them a large advantage, and had practised their tactics.
The battle became known as the Strage d’Epifania. Only one of the merchant ships, the Annibale, escaped by fleeing westwards, only to be sunk before dawn by a French submarine; three of the escorts also sank. Several British ships took damage, but none of it serious enough to slow them down, and the force broke off the action at 1 am and headed east at top speed, coming under the cover of aircraft from the Illustrious at dawn. The entire fleet then returned to Alexandria. German aircraft sent to search for the ships in the morning found nothing. Admiral Cunningham had taken a calculated risk, which paid off spectacularly. ‘It was the biggest lump of coal we could imagine,’ said Balbo later. ‘After that I knew all was lost.’
The OKH now revolted against the idea of trying to save Tripoli. General Halder noted, ‘Although most of the German troops were rescued, all their equipment was lost, including more than fifty vehicles. We cannot afford such waste in such a peripheral theatre.’ To his relief, Hitler agreed. ‘We have other plans for 1941,’ he said, ‘all we need is for Mussolini to hold them off for a year. After that we can mop up.’

Back to the main idea.....

A tactical disaster leading to profound strategic decisions.

With the disaster of Strage d'Epifania, and the decision to stop further Africa deployment would the Germans also pull the Luftwaffe from Sicily? Or would some elements remain to create havoc around Malta and further drain Allied resources?

 

[Lascaris]

Using the factory plant at Savannah, the French could try to produce a modified S-35, with a 3-man turret, and a longer 47mm. But it won't reach the frontline until Spring 1941.
I'm taking FFO as a source here.

What did the plant actually built in OTL after the fall of France? I've seen the plant being mentioned repeatedly but I would expect that if local production of the Somua was advanced in any way, the US would proceed with building it after all it had every chance of staying competitive with Panzer IV to the end of the war.