Es Geloybte Aretz Continuation Thread

[Tibi088]

I must say that regarding Austria the most difficult issue I see is that it now has an independent Poland AND an independent "Ruthenia" right across the border. Given the difficult relationship between Poles and Ukrainians/Ruthenians in Galicia, The dynamic I see is that even if the governments of Poland and Ruthenia are constrained to avoid pressing claims against AH, they are going to end up hosting, and sponsoring nationalist organizations of their respective Galician co-nationals, and that linguistic and administrative quarrels in Galicia will become increasingly millitant.

(For that matter, The Jews of Poland may end up sponsoring "self defense" millitas in Galicia as well - whenever Poles and Ukrainians (or Gemrans and Czechs or...) come to blows Jews often ended up being the first casulties- witness the Lvov Pogrom.)

As the AH empire leaves the post war Euphoria and FFs promises of reform dissapoint, Galicia could end up being AHs Nagorno-Karabach- the place where competing national groups seeking to improve their position against each other prepratory to the day of eventual imperial collapse, hasten that collapse by coming to blows with the center unable to effectively respond.

Also, ultimately non of the new or expanded German Client states will be really satisfied with being separated from their kin in AH. They will likely be lobbying "big brother" in Berlin to squeeze Vienna for concessions- which will be a constant source of tension between Berlin and Vienna. And, I suppose, between the German Emperor and his wife*

*BTW, did she convert to Lutheranism?

In regards of Poland and Ruthenia Austria can try to divide and conquer - or in this case hold.
The new Poland will not be a very conservative place with the jews and socialist being very powerful. Its also dirtpoor and in ruins thans to the war. Meaning that after the first wave of enthusiasm the Galician polish elit might be content to stay away from that mess. In the case of Ruthenia they can try to use religion to create and support a separate Ruthenian nationality. The key is that a lot of Ruthenians - I dont have time right now to chech the percentages - were Greek Catholics while the new Ukraine will be mostly orthodox.

 

[Kvasir]

I have a comment about your earlier post about Austria:
You said at one time, that even if Austria collapses, it would not be at all likely, that any annexations for Germany would happen as a result of this (because of too many catholics or something like that). I find this rather unlikely. As can be seen by the reaction of Austrian politicians after the end of WW1 IOTL, as soon as the idea of a greater Habsburg monarchy died, German nationalism became the overwhelmingly powerful narrative in the german speaking parts of the former empire, be it among conservatives or liberals or socialists.
If there were to be broad political support for a referendum on unification with germany, winning something like 80% of the votes in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the empire, I think there is no conceivable German government that could actually get away with refusing this.
Similarly I don't think the Germans could get away without intervening in Bohemia in some form, reading about interwar politics in the area, the conflict between Czech and German nationalists was just so unbelievably ugly, it seems hard to imagine a solution without some kind of separation, especially as Jews seem to be more likely to be counted as Germans in TTL.

If Austria-Hungary collapses into Austria and Hungary with Austria being held by the Hapsburgs then it is very unlikely that Austria joins the German Empire because quite frankly the Prussians would be against it. OTL both Germany and Austria were Republics and this made things far easier because the traditional sources of authority of the state (Monarchy) was destroyed and people looked for a new source of legitimacy and found it inside a heightened sense of Nationalism. I don't like to quote Hitler even partially but sometimes needs must, the idea of 'ein Volk' needing 'ein Reich' is more than just a desire for expansion but also a calling for why the State of Germany deserves to exist. Not because of some divine right of Monarchy or religion.

In this timeline nationalism is very strong but there are still alternative sources of authority. In the newly created states, most of these "Monarchs" don't have serious legitimacy which is built up over centuries in normal situations. Their ancestors didn't conquer lands but had their thrones handed to them by a victorious German Empire (essentially, though all these states will promote their own fighters and heroes and expect some legends developing based on half truths or outright lies). To foster new legitimacy. Austria and Germany, and Scandinavia and the UK, and the Netherlands and Italy and etc. all have their own Monarchies reinforcing an alternative though.

Furthermore it is not in this Germany's interest to support their smaller client states in any quest for gaining additional territory through claims linked to ethnic settlement in certain areas. To the contrary that Pandora's box must remain shut, have you looked at Posen? No dice. Germany will back the Austrian's claim to their own land because that logic strengthens their claim to their own land. So that will not create a wedge between them. We know from the author that at some point all the borders are declared immutable to stop all the infighting and we also know the borders were drawn so various people were in other lands. This was by design.

Is there a scenario in which a future Austria does unite with the German Empire under the Prussians (as this timeline is not going to have Germany becoming a Republic, I think we can all agree)? Yes. But my God is it unlikely.

Firstly, Austria needs to lose Hungary. This is doubtful because Germany doesn't want it to happen and would probably intervene to stop it, so we need to orchestrate a scenario where Germany (read the Kaiser and his government) either doesn't want to (hard) or cannot (more plausible). Say there is a domestic issue which takes up all their time and attention. Or the SPD is completely dominant and is able to somehow stop it. So this is unlikely.

After that Austria needs to lose Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria and Duchy of Bukovina since Germany will not want to include these territories. The idea that the Hapsburgs would willingly give these lands up in a scenario where they lost Hungary is highly implausible since whatever legitimacy they still have would be dramatically reduced still further. Remember that the Jewish people of Eastern Europe in this timeline are basically considered a type of German. They will not want to be removed from Austria and Austria would now be in a civil war and it is highly unlikely Germany's client state of Poland or Austria's client State of Ruthenia would dare to get involved. Except if all central power is lost and basically the Germans are incapable of stopping it.

So what I'm saying is that Austria cannot just lose Hungary via some simple dissolution of peaceful means. It's got to be bloody and its got to be dramatic and its got to see it lose key areas that are in the East that it will fight to hold even harder. AND on top of that Germany cannot join in to help and is unwilling or incapable of stopping other nations from intervening.

Every Austria-Hungary Civil War scenario I can see in my head results in German intervention and peace on Austria's terms. A none starter if your goal is for this timeline to result in a Grossdeutschland.

That brings us to the Second Russo-German War. Now in this scenario I can see an outcome that gives you what you want but it is not pretty and probably wouldn't result in a Germanwank. What it involves is an Austria that has held Hungary (either after a civil war or without) joining Germany in the second conflict and losing very badly to a Russian army which deconstructs the Austrian states and begins to create new client states. In this scenario nearly all of Austria's non-Alpine terrain would be occupied. But here's the rub. This scenario cannot result in Austria going Republic, since the German Empire will not allow Republican states to join it. Theoretically they could give the various crown lands new heads of state but that is implausible. In this scenario the Hapsburgs are desperate and legitimacy is all but gone. Joining the Empire would be seen as a desperate attempt to keep power inside a German Empire and losing sovereignty.

And then we get to the Prussians who don't want it. They could be pushed into it if the war is going badly and the sense of uniting the German people is a rallying cry to push back against the Russians. Even then it wouldn't be enough. It would need domestic support. The Centre Party must be in the Government. This strikes me as a requirement (or at least their votes are hugely important). And the right wing in Germany needs to be firmly in the nationalist mode as opposed to a Monarchist mode. The Kaiser fucking up somehow would do it.

Getting out of the War in victory with the Hapsburgs within the German Empire then is possible in my view. Just HIGHLY unlikely and would require a lot of set up. So much as for it to appear forced.

And furthermore. Such a scenario would see the newly released states in Eastern Europe devastated and far more independent than they would be without this scenario. Germany would probably be economically less powerful because they can't rely on Austria corralling all its states together but rather needs to work with them all independently. It's probably less of a Germanwank if Lemburg is a minor city in Ukraine, 100% Ukrainian speaking with German the top foreign language taught, than a minor city in Austria-Hungary which is a mix of Ukrainians, Poles, Jews and a smattering of ethnic Germans living in a multilingual city. Where a train can run from there to Metz and never stop at the one single border it cross (assuming some kind of free movement agreement between the two states). At least on my definition of a Germanwank anyway.

 

[De von Of]

If Austria-Hungary collapses into Austria and Hungary with Austria being held by the Hapsburgs then it is very unlikely that Austria joins the German Empire because quite frankly the Prussians would be against it. OTL both Germany and Austria were Republics and this made things far easier because the traditional sources of authority of the state (Monarchy) was destroyed and people looked for a new source of legitimacy and found it inside a heightened sense of Nationalism. I don't like to quote Hitler even partially but sometimes needs must, the idea of 'ein Volk' needing 'ein Reich' is more than just a desire for expansion but also a calling for why the State of Germany deserves to exist. Not because of some divine right of Monarchy or religion.

In this timeline nationalism is very strong but there are still alternative sources of authority. In the newly created states, most of these "Monarchs" don't have serious legitimacy which is built up over centuries in normal situations. Their ancestors didn't conquer lands but had their thrones handed to them by a victorious German Empire (essentially, though all these states will promote their own fighters and heroes and expect some legends developing based on half truths or outright lies). To foster new legitimacy. Austria and Germany, and Scandinavia and the UK, and the Netherlands and Italy and etc. all have their own Monarchies reinforcing an alternative though.

Furthermore it is not in this Germany's interest to support their smaller client states in any quest for gaining additional territory through claims linked to ethnic settlement in certain areas. To the contrary that Pandora's box must remain shut, have you looked at Posen? No dice. Germany will back the Austrian's claim to their own land because that logic strengthens their claim to their own land. So that will not create a wedge between them. We know from the author that at some point all the borders are declared immutable to stop all the infighting and we also know the borders were drawn so various people were in other lands. This was by design.

Is there a scenario in which a future Austria does unite with the German Empire under the Prussians (as this timeline is not going to have Germany becoming a Republic, I think we can all agree)? Yes. But my God is it unlikely.

Firstly, Austria needs to lose Hungary. This is doubtful because Germany doesn't want it to happen and would probably intervene to stop it, so we need to orchestrate a scenario where Germany (read the Kaiser and his government) either doesn't want to (hard) or cannot (more plausible). Say there is a domestic issue which takes up all their time and attention. Or the SPD is completely dominant and is able to somehow stop it. So this is unlikely.

After that Austria needs to lose Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria and Duchy of Bukovina since Germany will not want to include these territories. The idea that the Hapsburgs would willingly give these lands up in a scenario where they lost Hungary is highly implausible since whatever legitimacy they still have would be dramatically reduced still further. Remember that the Jewish people of Eastern Europe in this timeline are basically considered a type of German. They will not want to be removed from Austria and Austria would now be in a civil war and it is highly unlikely Germany's client state of Poland or Austria's client State of Ruthenia would dare to get involved. Except if all central power is lost and basically the Germans are incapable of stopping it.

So what I'm saying is that Austria cannot just lose Hungary via some simple dissolution of peaceful means. It's got to be bloody and its got to be dramatic and its got to see it lose key areas that are in the East that it will fight to hold even harder. AND on top of that Germany cannot join in to help and is unwilling or incapable of stopping other nations from intervening.

Every Austria-Hungary Civil War scenario I can see in my head results in German intervention and peace on Austria's terms. A none starter if your goal is for this timeline to result in a Grossdeutschland.

That brings us to the Second Russo-German War. Now in this scenario I can see an outcome that gives you what you want but it is not pretty and probably wouldn't result in a Germanwank. What it involves is an Austria that has held Hungary (either after a civil war or without) joining Germany in the second conflict and losing very badly to a Russian army which deconstructs the Austrian states and begins to create new client states. In this scenario nearly all of Austria's non-Alpine terrain would be occupied. But here's the rub. This scenario cannot result in Austria going Republic, since the German Empire will not allow Republican states to join it. Theoretically they could give the various crown lands new heads of state but that is implausible. In this scenario the Hapsburgs are desperate and legitimacy is all but gone. Joining the Empire would be seen as a desperate attempt to keep power inside a German Empire and losing sovereignty.

And then we get to the Prussians who don't want it. They could be pushed into it if the war is going badly and the sense of uniting the German people is a rallying cry to push back against the Russians. Even then it wouldn't be enough. It would need domestic support. The Centre Party must be in the Government. This strikes me as a requirement (or at least their votes are hugely important). And the right wing in Germany needs to be firmly in the nationalist mode as opposed to a Monarchist mode. The Kaiser fucking up somehow would do it.

Getting out of the War in victory with the Hapsburgs within the German Empire then is possible in my view. Just HIGHLY unlikely and would require a lot of set up. So much as for it to appear forced.

And furthermore. Such a scenario would see the newly released states in Eastern Europe devastated and far more independent than they would be without this scenario. Germany would probably be economically less powerful because they can't rely on Austria corralling all its states together but rather needs to work with them all independently. It's probably less of a Germanwank if Lemburg is a minor city in Ukraine, 100% Ukrainian speaking with German the top foreign language taught, than a minor city in Austria-Hungary which is a mix of Ukrainians, Poles, Jews and a smattering of ethnic Germans living in a multilingual city. Where a train can run from there to Metz and never stop at the one single border it cross (assuming some kind of free movement agreement between the two states). At least on my definition of a Germanwank anyway.

To make it clear, I think it is in the interest of the Germans to keep Austria together (including Hungary). I also think it would be more likely than not that Austria-Hungary would remain united ITTL than not. This is also what I personally would prefer. However, the way I see this timeline going, at least what my interpretation from the latest updates is, is that there will be some kind of divorce between Austria and Hungary ITTL.
If this were to happen, Hungary would obviously be gone, taking large parts of the balkans with it if it's going to happen without a fight (or even with a fight). At this point retaining Galicia-Lodomeria or anything south and east of Istria becomes basically impossible. At this point Cisleithania is reduced to the traditional Habsburg Erblande (which can be held indefinitely, including Istria, the Krain and the Tyrol without Italian intervention) and Bohemia.
At this point, having lost most of their empire, the Habsburg state is broken, and keeping a lid on the Czechs without outside assistance seems unlikely. At which point intervention resulting in annexation to Germany becomes more likely than intervention in order to keep up the reduced empire.
This is not the scenario I would like, but this seems to be the direction things are going.

If this happens, there is no way the Habsburgs can retain their hold on power, it would be an unimaginable humiliation. At this point, socialists, conservatives and pangermanists coalescing around German nationalism would become inevitable.

 

[Jürgen]

To make it clear, I think it is in the interest of the Germans to keep Austria together (including Hungary). I also think it would be more likely than not that Austria-Hungary would remain united ITTL than not. This is also what I personally would prefer. However, the way I see this timeline going, at least what my interpretation from the latest updates is, is that there will be some kind of divorce between Austria and Hungary ITTL.
If this were to happen, Hungary would obviously be gone, taking large parts of the balkans with it if it's going to happen without a fight (or even with a fight). At this point retaining Galicia-Lodomeria or anything south and east of Istria becomes basically impossible. At this point Cisleithania is reduced to the traditional Habsburg Erblande (which can be held indefinitely, including Istria, the Krain and the Tyrol without Italian intervention) and Bohemia.
At this point, having lost most of their empire, the Habsburg state is broken, and keeping a lid on the Czechs without outside assistance seems unlikely. At which point intervention resulting in annexation to Germany becomes more likely than intervention in order to keep up the reduced empire.
This is not the scenario I would like, but this seems to be the direction things are going.

If this happens, there is no way the Habsburgs can retain their hold on power, it would be an unimaginable humiliation. At this point, socialists, conservatives and pangermanists coalescing around German nationalism would become inevitable.

Yes I too would prefer the survival of Austria-Hungary, also I think there's some factors in favour of it staying together. Pan-Slavism are likely pretty unpopular by this point. The greater centralism of Ferdinand would likely result in greater industrialization, which would mean a the Social Democrats continue their rise, and they would likely be pretty pro-keeping the empire united. The growth of Vienna (I expect Vienna to have 4 million people or more by the late 30ties) would also push this. I also expect that if Hungary declare independence their minorities will rise up in protest, this could easily serve as a excuse for Austria and Germany to intervene.

 

[Tibi088]

If you really wanted a grossdeutchland from this scenario you try to do it on the hard way.

What I mean is what if instead of getting rid of Hungary and Galicia you get rid of Austria and the Habsburgs remain in whats left of the Empire:

Maybe the minorities banding together managed to dominate the Austian pairlaiment and managed to solve the czech question to the satisfaction of the czech. Same time they fullfilled Slovenien and other minority demands. Germans feel like they are the minority now. The Emperor doesnt necesserily like this but it at least grants stability and a workable pairlament instead of the prewar situation OTL so goes along with it. Then the probably czech led regime reacts violently to some german nationalist protest - for the effect let them be german workers in some place in the Sudetenland - and the Emperor support the government. They were workers and rebels so not impossible. The austro-german press makes a great deal about it and even german nationalist press accros the border start to write about the opression of germans in Austria.

To sum it up: the ruler for stability sake relies on a national minorites backed czech led regime and manages to loose the support and loyalty of most of his german subject.

After that you need an opportunity. Maybe have a polish revolt. Than I can easily see Hungary not wanting to get involved. Add some Ausgleich problems and maybe they outright refuse to send troops. If the polish were backers of the czech led government than the ukraininans are not too supportive of the state as well. The rebels are supported by the polish state by every unofficial means - they have a pretty efficient secret service which could manage it. The professional army is loyal but the germans in austria too dont want to fight and another violent reaction by the regime to a german protest leads to revolt of the germans as well.

In the end the revolutions win and Austria declares its independence while Galicia joins Poland. Austria later petitions Germany to join the Empire. The Hungarians finally seeing the chance to freedom offer the ruler an ultimatum: he can remain as king of Hungary and let the rest go or Hungary too will get rid of him. In the end the king reluctantly accepts.

*all this is not possible with FF but a ruler change is pretty easy in alternate history - stairs, horse, take your pick.

 

[Stendhal]

Runaway Horses, Mishima Yukio, Shinchosha 1969 [post canon]

The Cult of Zita began as an adolescent romantic Schwärmerei of cadets and junior officers too young to have seen fighting, too patriotic to be grateful. It did not worry authorities at first.

Then it attracted fringe constitutional theories whereby Francis II by his abridged coronation had lost his birthright and rendered the Throne of Saint Stephen orphaned.

The mine below Habsburg rule lay ready.

After the sale of Viribus Unitis to Siam, navy officers who had hoped to 'wear white and see the world' would complain bitterly about being "The Prisoner of Otranto".

In the army, Hungarian regiments could not be relied upon not to answer the toast to the king with a chorus of "IV. Károly".

Though Charles steadfastly denied any personal ambition a sense of distrust and paranoia infected the body politic.

By February 1934 Karl Kraus brought feelings to the point: Österreich - Ungern !

 

[carlton_bach]

How does the United States compare to the German Empire in this regard? Will Congress move to emulate the Kaiserreich model without a World War or Cold War driving the need for more science?

Not at all, really. The United States lives in the shadow of the Edison and Ford myth. Research is what corporations do, invention is the preserve of the solitary genius, and if there is money in it, the market will do it. There is money for educating future scientists - lots of state and land grant colleges and universities - but what research comes out of them is a byproduct of the system. Some states maintain prestigious research institutes (New York and Massachussetts are best known, though almost all do), but the federal government only funds research within the scope of its military and naval programmes. These are respectable, but nothing on the scale of the Hohenzollernstiftung.

I have a comment about your earlier post about Austria:
You said at one time, that even if Austria collapses, it would not be at all likely, that any annexations for Germany would happen as a result of this (because of too many catholics or something like that). I find this rather unlikely. As can be seen by the reaction of Austrian politicians after the end of WW1 IOTL, as soon as the idea of a greater Habsburg monarchy died, German nationalism became the overwhelmingly powerful narrative in the german speaking parts of the former empire, be it among conservatives or liberals or socialists.
If there were to be broad political support for a referendum on unification with germany, winning something like 80% of the votes in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the empire, I think there is no conceivable German government that could actually get away with refusing this.
Similarly I don't think the Germans could get away without intervening in Bohemia in some form, reading about interwar politics in the area, the conflict between Czech and German nationalists was just so unbelievably ugly, it seems hard to imagine a solution without some kind of separation, especially as Jews seem to be more likely to be counted as Germans in TTL.

Austria is the place where I feel least able to make sound predictions, but the way I see it, unification with Germany only becomes desireable for Berlin if all the non-German territories are lost. Ther Reich could easily abdsorb the Austria of today, but certainly not Istria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Galicia, Bohemia and Moravia. And for Austria to lose all of those would be a disaster far greater than what i can envision happening to a state allied firnly to the arbiter of all of Central Europe, and solidly on the road to modernity.

Project MJOLNIR!!!!!!!!

What, you expected creativity, wit, self-deprecation? This is Germany.

Where's Curie? Historically she disliked the Germans because she was a staunch Polish nationalist, and the Poles saw the Germans as occupiers and French as the last ally of Poland and potential future liberator. Now the German empire has liberated Poland, (if lacking the westernmost provinces), while France stood by and watched.

Also, the Parisian public never liked her much, to the point of spontaneously forming riots/lynch mobs that forced her to hide whenever bad news came out about her. I wonder if she would be adverse to a position in a German university, especially if offered at a good time. (Say, after her affair with Langevin came out and she had to run and her home got trashed.)

Schwarzchild on the other hand isn't likely to die of a disease contacted on active service TTL

I expect Schwarzschild will live to have a productive life, though there's a limit to the names that can be populasrly associated with the programme. Curie, despite being unpopular with a lot of people, was already a Nobel Prize winner and considered a sort of national asset in 1908, so the French will not easily let her go (nor the Germans accept her - Prussian universities are still closed to women as of that date, and ITTL it will take LIse Meitner and the combined convincing efforts of the entire Einstein-Institut to get that to change. Marie Curie is simply too early.

I must say that regarding Austria the most difficult issue I see is that it now has an independent Poland AND an independent "Ruthenia" right across the border. Given the difficult relationship between Poles and Ukrainians/Ruthenians in Galicia, The dynamic I see is that even if the governments of Poland and Ruthenia are constrained to avoid pressing claims against AH, they are going to end up hosting, and sponsoring nationalist organizations of their respective Galician co-nationals, and that linguistic and administrative quarrels in Galicia will become increasingly millitant.

(For that matter, The Jews of Poland may end up sponsoring "self defense" millitas in Galicia as well - whenever Poles and Ukrainians (or Gemrans and Czechs or...) come to blows Jews often ended up being the first casulties- witness the Lvov Pogrom.)

As to the self-defense militias, yes, these will come to exist (the Jews of Galicia will make Moses Zorn a popular hero and a generation of boys growing up with that legend are not going to take shit from no goyim). But Poland is as securely a German satellite as Wolhynia is an Austro-Hungarian one. The governments are going to take dipo,plomatic steps to improve the lot of their brethren across the border, but there is no way they would be allowed to be militant, let alone harbour territorial desires.

Also, ultimately non of the new or expanded German Client states will be really satisfied with being separated from their kin in AH. They will likely be lobbying "big brother" in Berlin to squeeze Vienna for concessions- which will be a constant source of tension between Berlin and Vienna. And, I suppose, between the German Emperor and his wife*

*BTW, did she convert to Lutheranism?

Annoying as hell, no more than that. And no, the official agreement is for her to practice Catholicism privately while the children are, of course, brought up "Evangelisch" (which for princes of the House Hohenzollern means a deeply Enlightenment-infused, pietist kind of weak Calvinism). Neither she nor her husband actually care.

Early August 1957. Interesting.

Would it be any more convincing to cover up this late-night flub by arguing they are, of course, speaking of the British bomb?

Yes I too would prefer the survival of Austria-Hungary, also I think there's some factors in favour of it staying together. Pan-Slavism are likely pretty unpopular by this point. The greater centralism of Ferdinand would likely result in greater industrialization, which would mean a the Social Democrats continue their rise, and they would likely be pretty pro-keeping the empire united. The growth of Vienna (I expect Vienna to have 4 million people or more by the late 30ties) would also push this. I also expect that if Hungary declare independence their minorities will rise up in protest, this could easily serve as a excuse for Austria and Germany to intervene.

Germany, at this point, will not allow Austria-Hungary to disintegrate, and neither will a lot of people in the Empire because life as a Czech in Bohemia, while not nice, is a lot better than life as a Pole in Poland. The new vassals are not happy places (yet): they are poor, burdened with massive war debt, and politically divided. That is the mental image that 'independence' and 'national home' conjures up along the northern borders for the next few decades. It's different in the south, though.

Runaway Horses, Mishima Yukio, Shinchosha 1969 [post canon]

Heh... that's an interesting twist. I could actually see that.

 

[Kvasir]

Austria is the place where I feel least able to make sound predictions, but the way I see it, unification with Germany only becomes desireable for Berlin if all the non-German territories are lost. Ther Reich could easily abdsorb the Austria of today, but certainly not Istria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Galicia, Bohemia and Moravia. And for Austria to lose all of those would be a disaster far greater than what i can envision happening to a state allied firnly to the arbiter of all of Central Europe, and solidly on the road to modernity.

For what it is worth, I could see Germany annexing Bohemia and Moravia if for no other reason than there are lots of Germans living there. Beyond that there is the history of the region. Beyond that it is reasonably developed land. So if Austria did lose Galicia, and Bosnia, I could see the Germans accepting it when presented with the right circumstance. Even if it is unlikely, it is not crazy.

 

[carlton_bach]

For what it is worth, I could see Germany annexing Bohemia and Moravia if for no other reason than there are lots of Germans living there. Beyond that there is the history of the region. Beyond that it is reasonably developed land. So if Austria did lose Galicia, and Bosnia, I could see the Germans accepting it when presented with the right circumstance. Even if it is unlikely, it is not crazy.

Oh, not crazy at all. A cherished dream for many German conservatives on both sides of the bordser, in fact. It's not going to happen because it could go either way and I don't want it, not because it's inherently implausible. Poor Czechs if it did happen, though.

 

[avernite]

Oh, not crazy at all. A cherished dream for many German conservatives on both sides of the bordser, in fact. It's not going to happen because it could go either way and I don't want it, not because it's inherently implausible. Poor Czechs if it did happen, though.

Poor Czech. The Czechs themselves would be Germans soon enough, I expect (just as the Bretons/Provençals, while now clearly French, still have decent lives).

 

[Jürgen]

Poor Czech. The Czechs themselves would be Germans soon enough, I expect (just as the Bretons/Provençals, while now clearly French, still have decent lives).

I doubt the Czech would end up German with such late POD.

 

[carlton_bach]

Poor Czech. The Czechs themselves would be Germans soon enough, I expect (just as the Bretons/Provençals, while now clearly French, still have decent lives).

Being Breton wasnm't all that nice in the first half of the twentieth century, and as examples of national minorities gom, there's always the Corsicans and Basques. Czech national consciousness was very well developed and politically quite robust. Nothing IOTL's Prussia was willing to do to its Poles, Danes and Alsatians would be enough to quell it.

 

[avernite]

Being Breton wasnm't all that nice in the first half of the twentieth century, and as examples of national minorities gom, there's always the Corsicans and Basques. Czech national consciousness was very well developed and politically quite robust. Nothing IOTL's Prussia was willing to do to its Poles, Danes and Alsatians would be enough to quell it.

Not quickly, but persistence might pay off in an area that is so deeply entrenched in Germany (which, IMO, it would be if annexed). There's a large enough German group that Germans moving to Bohemia/Moravia will stay German while Czechs moving away to the Ruhr or Bayern will become German (in 2-3 generations, maybe, but still).

 

[Josephus]

The Czechs that moved to Vienna in the later half of the 19th century and didn't leave after 1918 (at least half a million) became germanized very quickly, to the point that quite a few of the second generation (often still speaking in a distinctly Behmisch accent) became ardent Nazis.

 

[yboxman]

Being Breton wasnm't all that nice in the first half of the twentieth century, and as examples of national minorities gom, there's always the Corsicans and Basques. Czech national consciousness was very well developed and politically quite robust. Nothing IOTL's Prussia was willing to do to its Poles, Danes and Alsatians would be enough to quell it.

As others said- while Czechs in Bohemia Moravia would be unlikely to Germanize, in a Greater Germany including Bohemia, Germans immigrating into Bohemia would remain Germans, while Czechs immigrating to Berlin and Vienna and the Rhur would undergo Germanification. Over two or three generations this would substantially decrease the Czech share of the Bohemian population - especially amongst the mobile elite.

This did not quite occur with the Poles in Posen in the late 19th and early 20th century (Though it did with the "Ruhr Poles" and earlier- the share of Poles in the Posen population declined until the 1870s I believe, and never recovered to pre partition levels prior to WWI) becuase:
a. in the late 19th century their birthrate exceeded that of Germans, who had begun undergoing demographic transition earlier. I believe the Czechs are midway between the two, and closer to the Germans.
b. There was a constant influx of Polish migrant workers and outright immigrnts from the Russian and Austrian partitions. This is obviously not a factor for the Czechs.
c. Related to #b, Germans were leaving the cpountryside for the cities and thereby openong up an economic niche which the Poles were more prepared to fill. But Bohemia is an industrialized zone which would be an attractive immigration target for German urban workers, clerks, managers, etc if there are no political boundaries in place and if the central government prevents the erection of linguistic boundaries which would make them feel unwelcome.
d. The existance of a Polish "hinterland" ensured that nationalist ideas would constantly perculate across the partition borders. The same is obviously not true for Bohemia.
e. There was a fairly sharp Catholic/Protestant divide which reinforced the ethnic divide. The same would not be true in Bohemia (I believe more Czechs were protestant than Austrian Germans).

Alsace Lorraine is actually an interesting case illustrating what happened to the demographic makeup of an area with a population which refused to germanise but which possesed immigration inducing industrial resources- in 1918 the French Republic saw fit to deport 111,000 German citizens from the territory, about 10% of the population. Make that addition of ethnic German to to Bohemia and the Czech majority begins to look rather shaky. Something similiar happened in Catalonia and the Spanish Basqueland - which is one reason any future referendum is likely to fail.

 

[carlton_bach]

That is actually pretty close to the outcome I would have envisioned - not a cleanly defined ethnic nation state (Bohemia was no more ethnically homogenous than Silesia or Alsace), but an area with a permanently disgruntled majority-minority, a central government keen on 'denationalisation' that the Czechs would stubbornly resist through local institutions they could dominate and private activism, gerrymandering and other political trickery to minimise their influence, bad feelings about 'settlers', persistent suspicion and discrimination against members even after they left and assimilated elsewhere (Ruhrpolen had their documents stamped with a big red P, I don't know if it would be a B or a T for Bohemian Czechs) ... unhappiness all around. Maybe even some terrorism on top.

 

[Azureora]

That is actually pretty close to the outcome I would have envisioned - not a cleanly defined ethnic nation state (Bohemia was no more ethnically homogenous than Silesia or Alsace), but an area with a permanently disgruntled majority-minority, a central government keen on 'denationalisation' that the Czechs would stubbornly resist through local institutions they could dominate and private activism, gerrymandering and other political trickery to minimise their influence, bad feelings about 'settlers', persistent suspicion and discrimination against members even after they left and assimilated elsewhere (Ruhrpolen had their documents stamped with a big red P, I don't know if it would be a B or a T for Bohemian Czechs) ... unhappiness all around. Maybe even some terrorism on top.

Really? I don’t think they would scale all the way up to terrorism. Maybe large scale demonstrations and constant harassment of others. Besides, they should know that terrorism is only going to escalate things.

 

[Jito]

Really? I don’t think they would scale all the way up to terrorism. Maybe large scale demonstrations and constant harassment of others. Besides, they should know that terrorism is only going to escalate things.

I'm not sure that outlook has ever prevented Nationalist terrorists. In most cases a small segment of ultra-nationalists wants to escalate tensions, provoke reactions, and generally increase violence against the group they claim to represent. In this case a Czech nationalist terrorist movement would want to force the population to pick sides based on ethnic identity, something that people would be more inclined to do if German settlers begin using violence either in revenge or self-defense. I could easily see things getting pretty ugly if a segment of the Czech population feel that their entire culture is only a generation or two from being submerged under titanic German influence in central Europe.

 

[Kvasir]

In general I agree that the submersion of the Czech people into a Germany Empire, which would probably include most of the Slovenes as well, would definitely be a sad outcome for them as a people since their language and culture would be far more threatened, compared to OTL. But if we can consider the various types of bad it would be, we can potentially think of least bad scenarios.

In a hypothetical annexation during the second Russo-German War, if the Czechs were to be seen as a part of the fight against the Russians and a part of a hero story its not impossible that the Czechs gain special rights and protections within Bohemia and Moravia. If the Germans were smart they wouldn't try to suppress the Czechs. Cultural osmosis would do most of the work over several generations but they'd probably hold onto their own culture even up to the modern world thought they'd all probably be bilingual with German. There would be a constant push for an independent Czech state but it would be impossible.

Let's look at the 1910 census (recognising it is a flawed count).

Bohemia is Czech (63.2%), German (36.8%)
Moravia is Czech (71.8%), German (27.6%)
Austria Silesia is German (43.9%), Polish (31.7%), Czech (24.3%)

Assuming that the POD hasn't altered these numbers much and these numbers are broadly accurate, it's doubtful they would change too much moving towards any potential annexation, especially if Austria-Hungary is economically quite robust and is benefiting from a strengthening Germany and Central/Eastern Europe more generally. There is a chance that the Czechs increase in proportion due to German emigration or variation in fertility rates. But without the kind of ethnic moves which followed OLT WWII, any Bohemia-Moravia attempting to declare an independent state when around a third of the population are Germans would be a non-starter once part of the German Empire, in my view.

In an Austria-Hungary survives timeline, would the Czechs be worse off or better off than if they fold into a German Empire? There appears to be a consensus on here that Austria-Hungary would be better for them. But I can imagine scenarios where Bohemia and Moravia have significant autonomy and rights within the German Empire which would be equivalent or better than a Austria-Hungary survives timeline. It just depends on how it is set up. Same for the Slovenes. The German Empire is hardly a unitary state.

Most timelines will struggle to be as good for the Czechs as our timeline with a late 19th Century POD. They have an ethnically homogenous country spread over the whole of Bohemia and Moravia with a defensive border. This timeline can never give them that I don't think. And to be fair, I don't think anyone on here would support the basically ethnic cleansing of the Germans it would require. The question is how good could they have it. And I think they could have it reasonable in both A-H and Germany.

 

[Stendhal]

And I think they could have it reasonable in both A-H and Germany.

Germany though has right-hand traffic.