According to the German Wikipedia article (which facts are similiar to thos eI've read in a book about Baltic history) the personal-union with Prussia was only an alternative. The United Baltic Duchy as an independent states with Adolf Friedrich zu Mecklenburg as sovereign was the plan the Germans choose to follow. It failed because of new national consciousness of the non-German population. The fear of the bolsheviks prevented a civil war in the region.
Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank
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Indeed - after all, taking the frontline into account on the moment Russia asked for an armistice IOTL, the Germans had only gotten to Riga, with eastern Latvia, Estonia and Finland still under Russian rule. It will depend on the frontline and on the Russian internal situation which nations get independence and which continue to be under the Russian government... whatever it will be.
I think the absolute minimum you'd see for the Baltics - and probably Finland - are independent states ruled by German princes, well within the German sphere of interest by inclusion in a German-led economic association and functionally German protectorates, through formal military alliance. The fear of Russian revanche along an extended border with no geographic barriers would be sufficient to ensure that.
Likely as an intermediate possibility is something like the United Baltic Duchy, united more intimately with Germany but still technically independent.
The most that the Drang Nach Osten crowd could hope for would be three or four new German states, led by German princes, with generous minority and linguistic protections. It's also possible that this could be a later development, with the other possibilities being intermediary steps in that direction, growing closer to Germany through overwhelming economic and military domination, along with some immigration from Germany. Even in this scenario, Balts would have a good deal more freedom and autonomy than they ever had under the Tsars. Finland and Poland still would be independent, however, if still dominated by Germany. Appetites for annexing Polish territory (i.e., the so-called "Polish Strip") were mixed at best in our own timeline, even late in the war, and would be less in Carlton's timeline here.
A separate but related question for annexation - an old "what if" - is the final destiny of the Austrian Cisleithanian lands*. A successful continental war, especially if only with Russia, would buy some breathing space for Vienna, but only for so long, especially given the growing independence of Hungarian magnates by the early 20th century. The death of Franz Josef would probably hasten that day of reckoning. A successful, fairly liberal (if not "English liberal") dominant Germany would be an attractive union power for the German-dominated half of the old Empire, admitted as one or more federal states under Hapsburg prince(s). But that's a development further down the road, in the late 1910's or 1920's.
(* With some inevitable modifications: Burgenland swapped for Dalmatia and Bosnia, minority protections for Czechs, and Galicia given over to the new Polish state - the latter development eased by a Poland under a Hapsburg or Hapsburg-related prince, if that happens.)
Likely as an intermediate possibility is something like the United Baltic Duchy, united more intimately with Germany but still technically independent.
The most that the Drang Nach Osten crowd could hope for would be three or four new German states, led by German princes, with generous minority and linguistic protections. It's also possible that this could be a later development, with the other possibilities being intermediary steps in that direction, growing closer to Germany through overwhelming economic and military domination, along with some immigration from Germany. Even in this scenario, Balts would have a good deal more freedom and autonomy than they ever had under the Tsars. Finland and Poland still would be independent, however, if still dominated by Germany. Appetites for annexing Polish territory (i.e., the so-called "Polish Strip") were mixed at best in our own timeline, even late in the war, and would be less in Carlton's timeline here.
A separate but related question for annexation - an old "what if" - is the final destiny of the Austrian Cisleithanian lands*. A successful continental war, especially if only with Russia, would buy some breathing space for Vienna, but only for so long, especially given the growing independence of Hungarian magnates by the early 20th century. The death of Franz Josef would probably hasten that day of reckoning. A successful, fairly liberal (if not "English liberal") dominant Germany would be an attractive union power for the German-dominated half of the old Empire, admitted as one or more federal states under Hapsburg prince(s). But that's a development further down the road, in the late 1910's or 1920's.
(* With some inevitable modifications: Burgenland swapped for Dalmatia and Bosnia, minority protections for Czechs, and Galicia given over to the new Polish state - the latter development eased by a Poland under a Hapsburg or Hapsburg-related prince, if that happens.)
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I have just finished reading this TL and I like it! 
I'm kinda interested what Finns are doing. Will there be something like Heimosodat ITTL. (Here's the German article on the same topic which seems to be surprisingly even longer than the Finnish version.) I really wouldn't be surprised if some nationalists would be trying to "liberate" Eastern Karelia as Russia seems to be a one big mess.
I'm kinda interested what Finns are doing. Will there be something like Heimosodat ITTL. (Here's the German article on the same topic which seems to be surprisingly even longer than the Finnish version.) I really wouldn't be surprised if some nationalists would be trying to "liberate" Eastern Karelia as Russia seems to be a one big mess.
I always thought that the war will begin with Poland still liberated. I just can't see how the Russians could curbstomp the Polish resurrection without starting a war with Germany. So many Germans are "on leave" within the Polish army, so many German supplies...
Now with Poland still free, the frontier would be far more into the East. Large parts of what the Germans held at the time the Russians asked for an armistice would already be in German hands right from the beginning. Possibly the same with Finland. Additionally, I would expect that Germany has more troops in the East ITTL and AH wouldn't loose so badly in the beginning, whereas Russia is a lot weaker from the start. Thus I think the Germans would get deeper into the land.
Anyway, you're right that this is a question for the war, right now we don't even know whether France is in. If I remember correctly, one of the last updates told about plans to publish the Anglo-German alliance - or at lesat parts of it. That's a game changer for France we should await.
I am wondering could Mata Hari be used to get that info to the french?
It would be an easy way, the treaty doesn't get officially publicised (yet), and the french can back off slowly without looking like cowards.
I don't think she was in the intelligence business that early. But if necessary, IIIb has its channels.
it think its still under discussion if she ever was, but by 1906 she was active in Paris as a dancer.
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I think a lot depends on how the war starts (Russian surprise attack?), events during the war, duration of the war.
Even after a short war a victorious Germany probably would insist on a "new" independent Polish state. If only as a buffer against future surprise attacks.
If the war is longer then the goals will shift too. Independent Baltic states then will be considered seriously. There´s a Baltic German minority there and already some murmuring because of the Tsar´s "Russian-only" policy. Plus some unrest in Finland too.
All of these countries would be in the German influence zone with Russia still be at their borders. And militarily if would bottle up the Russian Baltic fleet in the Gulf of Finland. Easily blockaded and making the Baltic Sea very safe for Germany.
We shouldn´t forget one other fact here.
The Jewish population in the Western parts of Russia. In this TL we´ve read so far about (some) Jewish groups in (Congress) Poland plus some hints about events elsewhere. What is happening with the Jews in Byelorussia, Lithuania or the Ukraine? Especially given the Tsar´s policies?
Now just imagine lots of Russian troops deployed to the West for the attack on Germany. What happens when there isn´t a short victorious war for Russia? Battles lost, land lost? Minorities make excellent scapegoats. The danger of pogroms shouldn´t be underestimated.
Eurofed
Banned
Yes, but be mindful that both Poland and Finland are already in active rebellion against Russia, so even in a short war Germany would necessarily insist for their independence.
It kind of depends, though, doesn't it as to whether Britain's goal is to attempt to prevent the war or just to keep France out of it; if the latter, then, yes, back channels may be deployed. If it's the former, however, it should be publically proclaimed.
TB-EI
I have just finished reading this TL and I like it!
I'm kinda interested what Finns are doing. Will there be something like Heimosodat ITTL. (Here's the German article on the same topic which seems to be surprisingly even longer than the Finnish version.) I really wouldn't be surprised if some nationalists would be trying to "liberate" Eastern Karelia as Russia seems to be a one big mess.
If I remember correctly Russian officers of Finnish origin were retired / dismissed in this TL? As part of the Tsar´s "Russian-only" policies?
Like so many other non-Russian minority officers and public servants in Russia?
In our TL when WW1 broke out Finnish supporters of independence contacted both Sweden and Germany for aid. Sweden decided to stay neutral but allowed movement of people across its territory.
(In Germany a Finnish-German university student association also agitated for helping Finland.)
So already in February 1915 a military training camp in Germany was dedicated to train Finnish war volunteers. At first consisting of Finnish students already in Germany, after a few months with additional volunteers from Finland via Sweden. The Finnish Jägers, elite light infantry.
(There is still a commemoration ceremony every year today in the German town Hohenlockstedt where the camp was located. And every year high ranking Finnish officers or diplomats attend to celebrate the birth of the Finnish army.)
So once the war starts - and pnce it´s clear that it won´t be over in a few weeks - the Germans here in this TL probably will go for it too. And with more retired / dismissed Finnish officers in Finland I imagine that the numbers might be even higher than in our TL (better organization).
Concerning Eastern Karelia.
I think that depends. If there is a successful Finnish revolt during the war then conquering Eastern Karelia seems like a good idea. Shortens the Finnish-Russian frontline (and later border). And threatens Russian imports via the port of Arkhangelsk (naval bases in Finland).
If the Finnish revolt happens shortly before the war ends, then it depends on the international situation. And of course the situation in Russia.
Upps, you´re right.
I forgot the rebellion in Finland. Reading too many TLs does that to you.
In that case, do we already have the equivalent of our TLs German military training camp for Finnish volunteers? The Finnish need trained soldiers. Not only equipment. If I remember correctly in our TL the small autonomous Finnish army before 1900 was pretty small? And sometime after that the Finnish paid an extra tax to escape Russian conscription laws?
Upps, you´re right.
I forgot the rebellion in Finland. Reading too many TLs does that to you.
In that case, do we already have the equivalent of our TLs German military training camp for Finnish volunteers? The Finnish need trained soldiers. Not only equipment. If I remember correctly in our TL the small autonomous Finnish army before 1900 was pretty small? And sometime after that the Finnish paid an extra tax to escape Russian conscription laws?
They're not doing that yet because it'd be an overt act of war (Wilhelm thinks that is important - he has kind of a Cold war mindset where you seek to avoid great showdowns, but happily escalate minor conflicts from a safe distance, and it's about to blow up in his face worse than the Jameson Raid). But there are individual German and Swedish volunteers in Finland, plus deserters from St Petersburg. that was a major act of stupidity: the Russian government used its Finnish troops to suppress Russian strikers and protesters. In so doing it handily achieved a triple goal of:
- discrediting its ethnic Russian nationalist stance by using foreign mercenaries against patriotic Russian workers
- concentrating already malcontent Finnish troops near their home country in significant strength
- sapping the morale of loyal Finnish soldiers by ordering them to fire on civilians and be party to atrocities.
During the heady days when part of the St Petersburg garrison outright mutinied and the Workers' Council took over the city, the social revolutionaries allowed the Finnish garrison troops to entrain for Helsingfors. A handful decided to stay and join the international working classe struggle, but most went, and many of them now form the cadre of the Finnish National Army. The rebels now control Helsingfors, Borgo, Tammersfors, Abo, Nikolaistad, Ulea and most of the Western Coast by default. The Sveaborg garrison has abandoned its post. The Russian government has replaced the commander and much of the complement at Viborg and is reinforcing its troops there by sea in preparation for a push for Helsingfors in spring. Much of the interior is effectively without government - occasionally, a Finnish National official passes through ande everyone cheers, but there's no authority left.
Keep in mind, though, that the Finnish rebellion is a lot younger than the Polish. They haven't had time to dig in and raise troops yet.Their best hope short of overt German support will be the St Petersburg Workers' Council proving militarily competent. The Russians need to secure the city before they can safely move large forces into Finland. Unfortunately, there is no indication that the Council is militarily comeptent. The Trotsky of 1906 is not the Trotsky of 1919.
Even if the Finnish rebellion is younger, it has quite some time left thanks to the bulwark of St. Petersburg. House fighting is ugly, and the Czar might need some time to muster enough troops to do that (even otherwise reliable troops might not react to well to burning down quarters of the former capital and killing civilians).
In the meantime, the Finns get stronger - the already are thanks to the veterans. This, in turn, should lead to more sympathetic reactions in the other Scandinavian countries. I'm not sure if Sweden would be as hesitant to support the Finns ITTL.
Considering eastern Karelia: If Britain has a say about this, I would assume that the Finns get everything up to the White sea. Denying Russia Murmansk is in the British interest, but doesn't fundamentally change the balance of power. After all, Finnland wouldn't block British trade...
In the meantime, the Finns get stronger - the already are thanks to the veterans. This, in turn, should lead to more sympathetic reactions in the other Scandinavian countries. I'm not sure if Sweden would be as hesitant to support the Finns ITTL.
Considering eastern Karelia: If Britain has a say about this, I would assume that the Finns get everything up to the White sea. Denying Russia Murmansk is in the British interest, but doesn't fundamentally change the balance of power. After all, Finnland wouldn't block British trade...
Now that is interesting.
You´re quite right that the Russians need St. Petersburg before invading Finland. Given the current Russian leadership conquering it will probably be a pretty bloody affair?
Meaning that the German Social Democrats will scream bloody murder even louder? And probably not only them.
Did the secretive General von der Goltz (German armed forces intelligence service here in this TL) already point out to Wilhelm III that - with the Finnish National Army occupying most of the ports in Western and Southern Finland - the Russians do have a problem?
Without the Finnish ports in Southern Finland the Russians can´t defend the Gulf of Finland. The Northern "anchor" of the defense vanished. Meaning that the Russian Baltic fleet (main naval base Kronstadt - with the only large docks capable of repairing cruisers or larger ships ) and even St. Petersburg itself - in case of a war - could be easily blockaded / threatened by the German navy?
So clandestinely supporting the Finnish revolt would make even more military sense than supporting a Polish revolt? With a bit of Swedish help that should be doable.
Volunteers, trainers, rifles, field guns and ammunition.
How long - by the way - is the Tsar willing to wait for his short, victorious war against Germany?
Re-conquering St. Petersburg is a must. Prestige (the capital), a major transport hub, a major industrial hub and with the island of Kronstadt the major Russian naval base in the Baltic Sea.
Does he starts the war then despite still ongoing revolts in Finland and Congress Poland? Trusting that even minor armies are enough there? Or does he wait until all major revolts are suppressed? That might take an additional 1-2 years?
It's not goping to be pretty, and world opinion will be unhappy. It will not take very long, though - close to IOTL, where the Russian government used the promise of reform to split the opposition and flattened the workers' districts with artillery.
Von der Golz believes that Germany should start a war with russia yesterday, so he entirely supports this. Wilhelm is not so sure and scrupulously adheres to his version of "plausible deniability". That means the Finns will get rifles and field guns by buying "scrap metal" and ammunitrion on the "free market", and their trainers are "on extended leave". Sweden is officially neutral, but public opinion strongly supports the Finns and the customs authorities have yet had to inspect a single Finland-bound cargo that went through Swedish ports.
The main issue is, though, that rebel control in many cases means rebel control as long as it is uncontested. Except for the Poles, they aren't a military, and even the Polish National Army is barely one. The Finnish revolutionaries can govern their areas as long as no Russia troops move into them, but cannot hope to effectively stop them from doing so. Even the garrison of Viborg would be enough to retake all the cities on the western coast. A navy detachment from Kronstadt, even a small one, could steam into Sveaborg and set up shop. That they aren't doing it has to do with the parlous state of their logistics and the doubtful loyalty of many second-tier troops they will need to hold down the territories taken. OTL Russia between 1900 and 1918 was basically in a permanent state of low-level insurrection, and government in many places was a hard, but brittle and thin shell. It got broken, and Nicholas is dreaming dreams of Ivan Grozny rather than facing up to the new realities and being Macchiavellian, but even now he has the wherewithal to slam the lid back on. Von der Goltz knows this, he is worrying that the window of opportunity will close this year. Wilhelm knows it, too, but he more sees it as having been a good investment in harming Russia while avoiding outright war. Rathenau is continuing to fret over where to get the money and hardware without breaking Wilhelm's conception of "the law" or bankrupting himself.
He expects it later in 1906. The plan is to move in on St Petersburg in the early spring (he still has forces in Gatchina, Kronstadt, Schlüsselburg and Viborg, and they are all considered reliable). Then, with the end of muddy season, walk over the rebels in Poland. The idea is that the first-line troops mobilised for the purpose, including the Siberian Corps that just fought Japan to a standstill, will simply keep going west while fortress troops take over the duty of garrisoning the former rebel areas.
Yeah, whatever could possibly go wrong.
They do have it broadly right, but I feel obliged to point out that ITTL's Germans are not the supercompetent military automata everyone knows and love-hates.Eurofed
Banned
I'd point out that the fate of Polish and Finnish rebels much depends on whether, after he retakes St. Petersburg, Nicholas means to start his 'short, victorious war' with Germany before or after crushing them. As soon as the war starts, all the self-inflicted limitations of Germany in helping them shall be lifted and all its wartime resouces made available to assist allies.
With any luck, France may be stupid enough to bring Britain in the fray, and the anti-Entente coalition that would then form be strong enough to motivate Sweden to intervention, so possibly UK and Nordic resources, too.
With any luck, France may be stupid enough to bring Britain in the fray, and the anti-Entente coalition that would then form be strong enough to motivate Sweden to intervention, so possibly UK and Nordic resources, too.
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