29 December 1905, Moscow
The table, massive and gilded in the ornate fashion that dominated much of the Kremlin, easily seated the few men who hasd been called to the conference. Nicholas II presided, flanked by his confidants Dubrovin and Pobedonostev, whose advancing illness was now clearly visible to all. Pale and shrivelled, the Prokurator stood in almost comical contrast to the round-cheeked, cheery picture of health that Dubrovin was. On the right side of the table, First Minister Goremykin and governor Trepov, who had abandoned his post on the orders of the Czar and become his main adviser on internal affairs, had entrenched themselves behind a row of file binders. On the left, visibly uncomfortable in this company, sat General Sukhomlinov and Admiral Rozhestvensky. They had been called upon to present their plans.
“Gentlemen,” the Czar began, speaking quietly, but with the kind of conviction he had not had in months, “I have called you here to discuss the feasibility of a war with Germany. You are already aware of that nation's shameful meddling in our internal affairs. The question that remains is not what we ought or must, but what we can do. I am heartened to hear that our position is far less desperate than some have claimed. Prokurator?”
Pobedonostsev smiled coldly and spoke in a thin, reedy voice. “Your Majesty, the main question in such a battle is to know the mettle of your opponent's soul. Emperor Wilhelm was a factor of uncertainty, but we have his measure now. The man is weak. You will have noted his moral depravity, of course - he refuses to marry still, openly cohabiting with a mistress who is a known whore. His court is a refuge of pederasts and effeminates. He is irreligious and morally aimless, and as it seems fitting for a character of his kind, helpless without the advice of associates of superior intellect.”
The two soldiers exchanged a momentary glance. There was one to talk! Pobedonostsev continued, pretending not to notice.
“His domestic policies show that he is weak-willed and ready to compromise to achieve peace and ensure his own wellbeing. Even his domestic enemies ghave been corrupted into acquiescence with his plans, we must not underestimate his persuasive skills or his political powers. but he has neither the backbone nor the faith to entrust his fate to the judgement of God in battle. That is what we must keep in mind first and foremost.”
Trepov nodded his assent. “If I may, Sire: his foreign policy to date has mostly been concerned with producing compromise, even at the cost of foreshortening his own options. The Congo Conference should tell you everything you need to know. Had he been patient, just a few more years of letting this fester, and then taken a firm line with France, he could have gained a large piece of territory for himself. The British would certainly have supported him. They would have had no other choice. This way, he has gained short-term accolades as a master compromiser and broker of treaties, at the cost of valuable land and giving up future laurels as a conqueror. He likes to be liked too much, Sire.”
Pobedonostsev took up his speech again: “Let usa not forget he is a young man still, jealous of his honour and quick to overreact. He is given to panic and instinctively gives in to opponents rather than standing his ground when attacked. Neither does he have the Napoleonic gift for seizing the moment. Had he more fully supported the Japanese, or marched on us this summer, he could have gained large territories, even destroyed much of our army. Instead, he dithered, playing half-heartedly with his secret support and clandestine funding. He lacked the courage to grasp what he saw. That is the way this man operates. He is cautious, accommodating, weak-willed and timid. Faced with humiliation, he will not muster the courage to bear up.”
“Thank you, Prokurator.” Nicholas nodded gratefully. “With this in mind, general, admiral, what is your position on the practical side of things?”
Sukhomlinov cleared his throat. He had been briefed on what was expected, but it was still no easy matter. “Your Majesty,” he began, “you will understand that this is a prospect we have long considered with great apprehension.”
Nicholas waved dismissively. “General, I am sure the Germans are a formidable foe. Yet we cannot allow them to frighten us into inaction by their grand spectacle. What can we do?”
“Our hope must be, Majesty, to have an ally in France. Our intelligence suggests that the Germans in the event of a war will allocate the greater part of their army to the west, standing on the defensive against us in the hope of ensuring victory over France before turning east. This could prove a strategic error of the first order under the right circumstances.” He pointed to a map he had brought. “France has invested heavily in fortifications on its border. Germany must fight its way past this chain or abandon all hope of victory. No other route is open. Britain will never countenance an attack through neutral countries, and Belgium cannot ally with either side in such a struggle. Meanwhile, we would be in a favourable position to attack. Berlin is not far from the border. It has seen enemy troops before.”
“We can be sure of France?” Dubrovin had spoken out of turn. Five pairs of eyes focused on the interloper.
“As sure as you may be in such things.” Goremykin curtly informed him. “It would be madness for France not to join in the battle. Its only hope of recovering Alsace-Lorraine lies in defeating Germany, which it cannot do on its own.”
“Thank you.” Sukhomlinov continued almost seamlessly. “Now, the German army is formidable, as I have said, but not as dangerous an enemy now as you may have been led to believe. Firstly, the quality of its forces has deteriorated. Its cavalry is still excellent, but – Germany is not horse country. their men are no match for ours. And we will be able to deploy vastly more horse than they, with the bulk of their cavalry engaged against France. The infantry has suffered from recent expansions. The regiments have been diluted with newcomers, many of them unwilling and unmilitary, and they lack officers and NCOs to train the men properly. A significant portion of their training cadre is with the Poles right now. Their artillery is focused heavily on sieges and not mobile enough. And their entire military has no experience of battle. They have not fought a real war in near a generation, while our men come seasoned from Manchuria and Turkey. On the defensive, with ample time to prepare and receive the blow, all of this might not matter too greatly. We would still struggle against them. But here, we have been given an advantage.”
“How so?”Nicholas sounded genuinely curious.
”Our forces will already be in the field fighting the Polish rebels. Placing them in position for a sudden hammer blow against the German border should not be too difficult, and will not arouse suspicion.”
Pobedonostsev interrupted him. “General, will they not take precautions against such an eventuality?”
“If I may,” Trepov was not a military man, but he understood such things better than many field officer. “I do not believve they can. Wilhelm does not realise or understand the extent of his power. He is surrounded by a clique of industrialists and merchants whose liberal vision of government has strongly influenced him. Germany can only mobilise its army by drafting reserves of industrial workers. It lacks stockpiles of important raw materialsto become war-ready. Doing so would cost it huge amounts of money. that alone would not be the problem. Germany has this money. But the emperor does not dare take it. While he values wealth and quietude over valour, we will be facing Germany unready.”
“Yes!” Nicholas sounded almost enthusiastic. “Politically, this would be what we seek. You understand, gentlemen, we do not want German land or people. What we seek is only what is ours. But to restore the honour and unity of Russia, a victory will be needed. With no territorial concessions required, peace could be made on easy terms. Look at how the Prussians dealt with the Austrians in 1866 – and now they are firm allies.”
Sukhomlinov cautioned. “Your Majesty, the French will ask for Alsace-Lorraine. Surely Germany will not easily give it up.”
Goremykin could not suppress a smile. “For all I know, they may be able to take it. But we will let Paris negotiate for Alsace-Lorraine and make our peace on our terms. Wilhelm will be glad enough to have escaped with his skin intact after the first defeats. And if he wants to go on – well, on the road to St Petersburg lie Poltava and Borodino.”
The general fell silent.
Nicholas turned to Admiral Rozhestvensky. “Well, so much for our chances on land. How do you rate them by sea?”
The admiral bowed his head. “Sire, better than they were. The German fleet is no longer superior to ours in the Baltic, and far inferior to both ours and the French, assuming it came to that. More likely, the French will seek not to provoke Britain and stay their hand, but even then, the Germans will require some units in the North Sea. Our own fleet has improved greatly with the training and experience the crews have gained. They are incomparable to the men who so disappointed us even a year ago.”
“So you would seek a battle to decide the issue?” Sukhomlinov asked.
“Perhaps. However, my subordinate, the very talented Admiral Nebogatov, has been working on a different plan which includes our lessons from the war with Japan. Dearly bought though they were, I believe they will stand us in good stead. And as Your Majesty pointed out, defeat and humiliation through a series of hard blows are what Germany cannot bear. Her coasts are almost inconsequential, but if we defeat her navy, we will bottle it up in port and never need to worry about it again. they cannot replace the losses of capital ships within the time of a war or recall units from elsewhere. There is no elsewhere. The French, meanwhile, may attack their colonies and trade routes safely.”
“You think they will give, then?” Trepov asked.
“I think so.” Rozhestvensky agreed. “Just like the Japanese would have, had the British not interfered. The German navy is a hard but brittle instrument. Its morale is strung to the highest pitch. It has no tradition of victory. Breaking it should be easier by far than the Prussian army.”
“Very well, gentlemen.” The Czar interrupted. “Let us discuss the details some other time. Recall, gentlemen, that I wish this to be an option to use should the newed arise. Prepare yourselves in the event I should call on you to take this step, but do not be disappointed if the day never comes. And admiral, I wish to speak to your subordinate Nebogatov. He strikes me as a likely fellow.”
