Treaty of Paris
I´m late here. Great timeline!
Just one question?
Would it be possible (in the Treaty of Paris) to add the Kirkuk region to Turkey?
I mean Manstein probably already knows that the Romanian oil fields won´t be large enough to supply Germany with enough oil in the future. Not if you want highly mobile armies. And at that time he doesn´t yet know how the war with the USSR will end.
And unless that war would give Germany control of Baku and a secure supply line to Germany (highly unlikely), any future war could see a return of a naval blockade....
And not enough oil in Germany.
So it would make sense to try and give a generally German friendly country (allies in WW 1) possession of a large oil field. Especially if one already (politically and militarily ) controls the Balkans. It would be a much more secure supply route than relying on British Empire and US good will.
I would suspect Turkey would be quite happy with a joint Turkish-German oil company. Plus regaining some old Ottoman Empire territory. And some of that new wealth might be spent buying German weapons and paying German instructors since Turkey doesn´t like Russia too.
Or buying German export goods.
(Not to mention that with control of the Balkans and a friendly Ukraine it would also be much easier to "pressure" Turkey if they - in future - tried to shut down delivery of oil to Germany. I don´t want to insult Turkey here. It´s just cold-blooded realism. Turkey simply is much closer to Germany than Persia or Kuwait....)
The British Empire still has the Persian oil fields. And they already discovered oil in Kuwait. So they´re not that dependant on Northern Iraqi oil fields and might be willing to give them up. Maybe with the stipulation that enough oil will be sold to them for warfare in Asia?