I am re-reading Eric Harry's book Arc Light again after 15 years (the book came out in 1994). It's the best military thriller I have ever read.
I'll post spoilers for the whole book, so don't read this thread if you want to read the book fresh, but in short, the summary of the book is:
It takes place roughly in 2002 (hence my "20 years later").
Russia is at war with China in Northern China; encourages North Korea to invade South Korea, which they do.
The Russias decide to fire nukes at the Chinese; a Russian officer warns the US President what they will do, to which the President warns the Chinese. The Chinese then fire nukes at Moscow. At the same time, a general starts a coup in the Kremlin, and he interprets the nukes as coming from the US. So, he orders a counterforce nuclear strike on the US...the US responds in kind with its own counterforce strike (counterforce being a strike against the other side's nuclear capability).
The US is stunned and surveys the wreckage. Because it was a counterforce strike, however, "only" about six million or so die in the initial attack, and much of the country remains intact, including the military. Russia is much worse off, with its Kara sea bastion of nuclear subs being its best defense.
At this point, the President does not want to pursue any more hostilities, as both countries have suffered horribly. Congress, however, wants to impeach and remove the President, and once they do, the VP (now President) and Congress will declare war on Russia, removing it as a threat once and for all through invasion.
And that's what happens. The US declares war and invades through Slovakia and Poland, the area north of Vladivostok, and down from the Kola Peninsula. NATO is dissolved as the French and Germans and others refuse to help, but another alliance, TEAMS, takes its place, which includes Canada and the UK of course (a staple of invasion media), Italy, Poland, and Finland (where have we heard that before heh heh) and others I can't remember. TEAMS is able to use the old NATO bases and roads because the President threatens France, Germany, etc.
With some lucky breaks, the alliance eventually reaches Moscow and the city is surrendered after relatively light fighting. The bastion subs also fire their missiles at the 304 largest American cities, but a Russian general has a code from Gorbachev's time that deactivates their warheads. In the end, Russia is defeated and TEAMS is able to make terms.
With that short sketch, I was wondering what the world would be like in 2022. It's safe to say that the world would not be as prosperous and therefore technologically advanced. American GDP would perhaps take, I don't know, 10+ years to get back to where it was before. Europe would be more divided. It's tough to say how China would do, but I think they would do about as well as in OTL, maybe slightly worse.
What do you think? I am writing this in one go here so I may not be thinking of all the factors.
I'll post spoilers for the whole book, so don't read this thread if you want to read the book fresh, but in short, the summary of the book is:
It takes place roughly in 2002 (hence my "20 years later").
Russia is at war with China in Northern China; encourages North Korea to invade South Korea, which they do.
The Russias decide to fire nukes at the Chinese; a Russian officer warns the US President what they will do, to which the President warns the Chinese. The Chinese then fire nukes at Moscow. At the same time, a general starts a coup in the Kremlin, and he interprets the nukes as coming from the US. So, he orders a counterforce nuclear strike on the US...the US responds in kind with its own counterforce strike (counterforce being a strike against the other side's nuclear capability).
The US is stunned and surveys the wreckage. Because it was a counterforce strike, however, "only" about six million or so die in the initial attack, and much of the country remains intact, including the military. Russia is much worse off, with its Kara sea bastion of nuclear subs being its best defense.
At this point, the President does not want to pursue any more hostilities, as both countries have suffered horribly. Congress, however, wants to impeach and remove the President, and once they do, the VP (now President) and Congress will declare war on Russia, removing it as a threat once and for all through invasion.
And that's what happens. The US declares war and invades through Slovakia and Poland, the area north of Vladivostok, and down from the Kola Peninsula. NATO is dissolved as the French and Germans and others refuse to help, but another alliance, TEAMS, takes its place, which includes Canada and the UK of course (a staple of invasion media), Italy, Poland, and Finland (where have we heard that before heh heh) and others I can't remember. TEAMS is able to use the old NATO bases and roads because the President threatens France, Germany, etc.
With some lucky breaks, the alliance eventually reaches Moscow and the city is surrendered after relatively light fighting. The bastion subs also fire their missiles at the 304 largest American cities, but a Russian general has a code from Gorbachev's time that deactivates their warheads. In the end, Russia is defeated and TEAMS is able to make terms.
With that short sketch, I was wondering what the world would be like in 2022. It's safe to say that the world would not be as prosperous and therefore technologically advanced. American GDP would perhaps take, I don't know, 10+ years to get back to where it was before. Europe would be more divided. It's tough to say how China would do, but I think they would do about as well as in OTL, maybe slightly worse.
What do you think? I am writing this in one go here so I may not be thinking of all the factors.