Epidemiology Progresses far Further

With a PoD in the 1940s or 50s have disease control/suppresion move much further along in the 20th Century. The goal would be to suppress/eradicate, respiratory illnesses, Venereal diseases, and possibly cancer as effectively as Polio & Smallpox were.

What would the social effects of such be in terms of dempgraphics, population growth, economics & sexuality be?
 
This feels like something you could track with real data to create more realistic scenarios. For example, what are the differences in behavior we can chart between societies with lower and higher amounts of care and lower and higher insulation from disease? Which of those behaviors seems likely to result partially or wholly from this relationship to health care and insulation? Does it seem likely that we can extrapolate a trajectory for those behaviors? I.e., does it appear that behaviors relating to insulation grow more pronounced/extreme in correlation with increased amounts of insulation?

If so, you've got yourself some likely patterns of behavior there, partner.
 
This feels like something you could track with real data to create more realistic scenarios. ...

I remember some of that in the text books and lectures of my Anthro and Soci classes circa 1979-82. There were the graphs showing changes in birth rates as populations converted from rural/agrarian to urban/industrial, or Reese McGees research on changes in criminal activity by young males. I've probably forgotten 90% of the similar material presented in the classes back then.
 
Salmonella Poisoning in 35 States Blamed on Ice Cream
Los Angeles Times, October 15, 1994

http://articles.latimes.com/1994-10-15/news/mn-50399_1_ice-cream

‘ . . . Schwan's Sales Enterprises, based in Marshall, Minn., recalled its ice cream after the first reports . . . ’

‘ . . . The CDC has 400 confirmed cases of salmonella from Schwan's ice cream, and 3,000 to 5,000 suspected cases, agency spokesman Kent Taylor said. . . ’
You might even have a system in which patients could more quickly and easily see physician assistants as well as physicians, both of whom would report cases like this more often because they’re confident it’s going to be followed up on.

This 1994 situation was one of the largest single-source outbreaks of salmonella in U.S. history.
 
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We have built a medical system in which it is not easy and comfortable to see a medical professional in the morning on the way to work, iron the evening.
 
We have built a medical system in which it is not easy and comfortable to see a medical professional in the morning on the way to work, iron the evening.

Or any other professional, or public employee. I average four hours a week for each employee off for medical, court, schools, social services. Usually for matters concerning their children. All those demand my employees time between 9:00 am & 3:00 pm. We often end our day at 6:00 pm so my laborers can get something close to a full week in.
 
https://books.google.com/books?id=p...liquid raw eggs on their return trip"&f=false

[ . . . 1994 Salmonella Poisoning in U.S. . . . ]

‘ . . . truck drivers were “back-hauling” liquid raw eggs on their return trip, and they were not cleaning their tankers sufficiently to prevent cross-contamination. An estimated 224,000 people throughout the continental United States has gotten diarrhea from eating Schwan’s ice cream. . . ’
No one died that we know about. And you have to estimate numbers because people have to be really sick or sick for quite a while before they go see a doctor, a physician’s assistant, or a nurse practitioner.

Now, where diarrhea is more commonly life-or-death is for persons in the Third World, especially for children who are already somewhat malnourished. The main life saver is oral rehydration therapy (water with a little sugar and salt added; to about the taste of tears). The main culprit is big companies marketing infant formula in unethical ways, including free samples.
 
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Now, where diarrhea is more commonly life-or-death is for persons in the Third World, especially for children who are already somewhat malnourished. The main life saver is oral rehydration therapy (water with a little sugar and salt added; to about the taste of tears). The main culprit is big companies marketing infant formula in unethical ways, including free samples.

A nurse remarked to me they would be better off if the mothers consumed the formula & let their bodies repackage the nutrition for the infants.
 
... I.e., does it appear that behaviors relating to insulation grow more pronounced/extreme in correlation with increased amounts of insulation? ...

There was a 19th Century French writer (Guy de Maupasant ???) who wrote a long & still valid tresatie on peoples behavior concerning real risk and perceived risk
 
Or any other professional, or public employee. I average four hours a week for each employee off for medical, court, schools, social services. Usually for matters concerning their children. All those demand my employees time between 9:00 am & 3:00 pm. We often end our day at 6:00 pm so my laborers can get something close to a full week in.
I admire entrepreneurship, I’m going to still press you on time.

I’m all in favor of what we almost got here in the U.S. in Dec 2016 that if an employee makes less than $47,000 for the year, he or she gets time-and-a-half for overtime whether classified as salaried or hourly. And actually, I’d like to push it further in this direction.

And even if someone is an entrepreneur, or the top pediatrician infectious disease guy or gal on the Texas Gulf Coast, there would be a social norm that if you work too many more than 60 hours a week, people look at you askance, like what are you trying to prove. Just a social norm mind you. You can still buck it. But a norm such that a person doesn’t always get viewed as virtuous for working monster hours.

* I am a believer in the coming automation crisis.
 
Epidemiology is the study of disease patterns, in essence. The problem is that by the 40s and 50s things like smallpox, polio, etc were pretty well understood. For smallpox the problem was the effort it would take to eliminate wild smallpox, getting vaccinations out to every corner of the world - it was known what was needed, the how was another question. With polio there was a very extensive effort to find a vaccine, you could move that up a few years but...The connection between smoking and cancer, specifically and lung cancer, had been brought out in the 40s. The tobacco industry fought this tooth and nail for decades. Pesticides, air pollution, lead paint and leaded gasoline, on and on.

It wasn't that the medical specialists/epidemiologists hadn't developed evidence that this, that, or the next thing was bad for population health. It was that those people who made money off of this, that, and the next thing fought hard and bought politicians and tried to buy public attitudes for a long time. "It's only a theory", "data is incomplete", "more studies are needed", "doing {this} will cost the average Joe a lot of money", "you are infringing on peoples' freedoms". All this sound familiar (like insert 'climate change').

BTW epidemiology does not necessarily interact with a better system of delivering health care, that's a separate issue.
 
Epidemiology is the study of disease patterns, in essence. The problem is that by the 40s and 50s things like smallpox, polio, etc were pretty well understood. For smallpox the problem was the effort it would take to eliminate wild smallpox, getting vaccinations out to every corner of the world - it was known what was needed, the how was another question.

Agreed. The issue here is not advancing epidemiology, it's the difficulty of distributing vaccines due to political and economic reasons.

You can push the science forward some but the biggest limiting factor is human nature, not the science. I know plenty of people who smoke or do other unhealthy things while fully aware of the risks. We all do.
 
. . . I know plenty of people who smoke or do other unhealthy things while fully aware of the risks. We all do.
And I think adults should have the right to smoke.

Okay, my dream ticket, no sexy people in tobacco ads, and no discounts. The price is the price is the price.

And we've somewhat gotten the handle on free props (free cigarettes) to movies, but not entirely. (And I have my dark suspicions about under-the-table product placement money)
 
...
And even if someone is an entrepreneur, or the top pediatrician infectious disease guy or gal on the Texas Gulf Coast, there would be a social norm that if you work too many more than 60 hours a week, people look at you askance, like what are you trying to prove. Just a social norm mind you. You can still buck it. But a norm such that a person doesn’t always get viewed as virtuous for working monster hours.

* I am a believer in the coming automation crisis.

Unfortunatlly that would cut into successful business start ups. Those usually require huge up front costs in management hours, along side the large up front capitol costs. One of the reasons my business was slow to grow the first few years was I did not put in the 60+ hour workweeks.
 
. . . business start ups. . .

bls-business-survival-rates_rWnMXrU_large.png


https://www.fool.com/careers/2017/05/03/what-percentage-of-businesses-fail-in-their-first.aspx

According to the graph, only about 60% of new businesses are still in business after 3 years.

Yes, I compliment you on your business success. I still want to put statistics out there that it's a tough row to hoe. A person can have all the talent in the world and be very hardworking, and there are still luck and external factors and timing factors.
 
https://www.fool.com/careers/2017/05/03/what-percentage-of-businesses-fail-in-their-first.aspx

The benefits of failing fast

' . . . In light of this, my opinion is that it would be better for more than just 20% of businesses to fail in their first year of operation. That might surprise you, but there's a good reason for my viewpoint.

'If you're destined to fail, wouldn't it be better to get it over as soon as possible -- like ripping off a Band-Aid quickly to avoid prolonged pain? I think so. . . '

' . . . I suggest thinking about your start-up business in a similar way to how drugmakers think about experimental drugs.

'They first conduct pre-clinical testing in animals to determine if human testing might be worthwhile. The first phase of human testing typically involves a small number of patients. Subsequent phases add more patients to the studies.

'At every step in the process, there are predetermined primary outcome measures (and often secondary outcome measure as well). If the target outcomes aren't met, the drug usually doesn't advance to the next phase. . . '

And I've read the same idea in other contexts, that if a person can find a way to test the main idea of the business quickly and on the cheap, it puts him or her a step ahead.
 
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