Enola Gay shot down, bomb survives crash

lionhead

What if American B-29 bomber "Enola Gay", carrying the "Little Boy" nuclear bomb was shot down over Japan(specifically somewhere on the island Shikoku) and it crash-landed, pilots dead with the bomb still intact?(not really sure how ASB that is)

Several questions about that scenario:

1. Would the mission too Nagasaki still continue?
2. Would the Japanese be able to use the bomb in some way, or is it more likely they would accidentally set it off, fail to detonate it when intended or dismantle it?
3. If they would be able to use it and conceal it from the Americans(who would would put every effort in finding the bomb and destroying it) how would they use it?
4. Is the idea of a Kamikazi submarine or ship carrying "little boy" too ASB?(did the Japanese even have any submarines left?)

The Japanese would not know what this bomb can do, but surely figure out its a huge bomb. If the Nagasaki mission would still be executed the Japanese would know what the bomb can do.

Please, we are all friends here and i have just woken up so if its truly impossible the Japanese would be able to shoot down the plane or that the bomb would survive the crash and still be usable, just some mod move this topic too ASB please. Its all cool
 
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Color-Copycat

Kind of ASB. By this point of the war, US bomber flights were going practically unopposed over major Japanese urban centers. For example, the Tokyo firebombing campaign earlier that year had a loss of 14 aircraft out of a total 335 (about 4%). This was over the capital, and I can only guess that that's where defenses were the toughest.
 

Cockroach

lionhead said:
What if American B-52 bomber "Enola Gay", carrying the "Fat Man" nuclear bomb was shot down over Japan(specifically somewhere on the island Shikoku) and it crash-landed, pilots dead with the bomb still intact?(not really sure how ASB that is)
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*Head Desk*
1. B-29 NOT B-52.
2. The bomb used on Hiroshima was Little Boy not Fat Man... this isn't just pedantic nitpicking about names: the former was a 'gun-type' bomb (two sub-critical lumps of uranium slammed togeather) while the latter was an implosion type. Thisdifference is poentially of significance to the chances of the bomb surviving the crash "intact" (for the sake of debate in one piece without too much damage to the internals).

The Japanese had their own A-bomb program -though not particularly advanced- so they could in principle recognize the captured bomb for what it is... but it's far from a given they'll have the necessary experts at hand to look at the weapon before the second is deployed.

The chances of setting the bomb off while examining it can be split in two: 1. Full nuclear yeild -unlikely, this requires the bomb survives the crash near completely intact (even if the bomb is largely intact if the 'gun' is knocked out of allighnment you won't have the two lumps of uranium hit properly). 2. Going off as a dirty bomb or partial yield... not unbelievable.

Japanese redployment of the bomb agains the yanks is technically possible but probably not practical within the realistic timeframe to the next bombs and peace.
 

lionhead

I corrected the B-52 mistake:eek:, but the other went unnoticed. Like i said, i was just awake. Sorry about that all.

Thank you Cockroach for the clear explanation i agree with your points. So you do think the bombing of nagaski would have continued or would they drop "Fat man" on Hiroshima instead?

and thanks to Cook for the links.
 

lothaw

I'd say the Enola Gay suffering some sort of mechanical failure is more likely than it getting shot down. But...

IF the Enola Gay crashes for whatever reason...
IF the pilot doesn't try for an ocean crash for whatever reason...
IF the bomb survives the crash...
IF the grunts on the ground even realize what they have....

Well you have all kinds of interesting possibilities. Certainly Japan had it's own nuclear program, so their physicists probably can figure out how to detonate it.

But the US is still bound to drop their second bomb. Be it another run at Hiroshima, Nagasaki or maybe Tokyo. Certainly this will happen before a lengthy process of identifying what they have in the Enola crash site, digging it out(these things weren't small), figuring out how it works and what to do with it.

Next concern is the US's next nuclear bomb being available. I believe it was set for the end of August with two more in September and maybe three in October.

But let's just assume they salvage it before a second bombing sometime in the end of August. I see four possibilities....

-A plan put in place to detonate it when/if the US invades. Since Downfall was scheduled to start in October, this means they'd probably take at least three more atomic hits. So doubtful Japan would hold out long enough for this to happen.

-The inevitable nuclear kamikaze. The only delivery method I can see is the I-53. Most advanced submarine in the world at the time and it did survive the war. Assuming they can get it on board and past the US Fleet, maybe they could get to the West Coast and detonate in LA Harbor... maybe. Though this would likely only make Hoover turn Japan into glass over the next couple months I think.

-Offer to hand it over to the Soviets in a desperate attempt to preserve their independence. This is scary and quite possible. Not sure how well it would work for Japan though. I'm sure Stalin would jump at the oppurtunity, though I'm not sure he could persuade/threaten Hoover into making peace with Japan.

-The bomb just disappears. Some miitary hardliners stash it away for safekeeping for when Japan rises again in the future after Japan surrenders late August/early September after a second bombing. This would be ever more likely to happen if the Fatman bomb decapitated the government by hitting Tokyo. And likely the source of conspiracy theories for years to come.

So... an interesting scenario, but I don't see any of these scenarios turning out better for Japan than this TL. Though the mindset of Japan at the time wasn't longterm at all so...
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
lionhead said:
So you do think the bombing of nagaski would have continued...
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Nagasaki was not the primary target of the August 9th mission, Kokura was. But Kokura was obscured by clouds when Bockscar arrived over the target, fprcing them to divert to their secondary target; Nagasaki.
 

Cockroach

lothaw said:
-The bomb just disappears. Some miitary hardliners stash it away for safekeeping for when Japan rises again in the future
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Of cause,w ithout the necessary background and technical details needed to maintain the weapon it's useless by the time any uprising comes.
 

lothaw

Cockroach said:
Of cause,w ithout the necessary background and technical details needed to maintain the weapon it's useless by the time any uprising comes.
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I never implied otherwise. But that wouldn't stop them from secreting it away. Not that Japan was really that much of a revolt risk anyways.

If it disapears I don't see it changing much really regarding Japan's occupiation and post war government. The US wouldn't be exactly eager to advertise they lost one of their bombs, and even if it did turn up and in the hands of Japan's post-war government, I'm not sure they'd even want to admit they had it.
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
lothaw said:
-The bomb just disappears. Some miitary hardliners stash it away for safekeeping .
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The Japanese were not significant in the world of Physics at the time and the Imperial Japanese Army did not have physicists available to rush to crash sites. Fat Man didn’t have ‘Caution, Atomic Bomb’ written on the outside; all you would find is a reasonably large explosive with a very elaborate detonation wiring system on it.

lothaw said:
This would be ever more likely to happen if the Fatman bomb decapitated the government by hitting Tokyo.
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Tokyo had been ruled out of the target list. Primarily because of its historical and cultural importance and secondly because if you are using a weapon designed to strike terror into the hearts of the enemy leaders and make them immediately capitulate it is vitally important that the leaders be alive after you’ve dropped your bomb so that they can be struck terrified and…
 
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Tovarich

Tovarich

Banned
lothaw said:
-The inevitable nuclear kamikaze. The only delivery method I can see is the I-53. Most advanced submarine in the world at the time and it did survive the war. Assuming they can get it on board and past the US Fleet, maybe they could get to the West Coast and detonate in LA Harbor... maybe. Though this would likely only make Hoover turn Japan into glass over the next couple months I think.

-Offer to hand it over to the Soviets in a desperate attempt to preserve their independence. This is scary and quite possible. Not sure how well it would work for Japan though. I'm sure Stalin would jump at the oppurtunity, though I'm not sure he could persuade/threaten Hoover into making peace with Japan.
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When you say Hoover, d'you mean Truman?
I'm finding the idea of J. Edgar with nukes quite nightmarish:eek:
 

lothaw

Tovarich said:
When you say Hoover, d'you mean Truman?
I'm finding the idea of J. Edgar with nukes quite nightmarish:eek:
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Er.. some say he was running the government anyways? :rolleyes: [/desperate attempt to save face]

And on that note, I'm off to bed, clearly I need some sleep. :p
 

altamiro

I asked a similar question once. The reply I remember most was that the bomb was equipped with several detonating systems, one of which was barometric, and which were armed in flight. So unless you have a number of unrelated errors preceding the shootdown / mechanical failure of the bomber, what you get is a nuclear detonation over some random piece of real estate in Japan.

It is still interesting how the US will react - will there be a message to Japan first, claiming it was a demonstration, or will they just go on with a second bomb? Will there be a delay due to investigating what happened and preventing a repeat, or will they just push ahead?

In any case, heads WILL roll. Especially if it is established that the reason was mechanical failure.

EDIT:

And, by the way, contrary to the implosion device, a gun-type one CAN explode full force just from an impact, provided its "gun barrel" is aligned more or less exactly with the impact vector.
 
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MonsooN

MonsooN

I remember reading about a Japanese plan to destroy the Panama Canal, or at least disable it for a while. Could the bomb be placed on a sub and detonated in one of the locks in the canal?
 
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