English Commonwealth survives

I think that whoever is in charge in London will be desperate to maintain control of Ireland, regardless of the status of the Scots; nobody in the period had any desire to get out. Although Ireland was a resource sink, it wasn't seen that way; it was seen more as a land ripe for colonisation and improvement. There was also the strategic issue; if England doesn't exert control over Ireland, somebody would- and ITTL, that somebody now includes the Scots, who have major interests in Ulster and could potentially be a threat.

Given these circumstances, a Commonwealth of England and Ireland, or something similar but a little more semi-detached, seems overwhelmingly likely, unless something dramatic happens.

Such as?FILLER
 
Such as?FILLER

Well, the Irish Confederates might be able to stave off invasion somehow, perhaps with foreign support. But that's not exactly a likely outcome, given that reimposing control over Ireland was the one thing that everyone on the other side of St George's Channel agreed on as a priority, whether they were English, Scots, Royalist, or Parliamentarian. I think a more difficult *Cromwellian conquest of Ireland is perfectly possible, but I can't see a way of actually making it a failure, unless you completely change the situation in the other two Kingdoms, and even then it's a stretch.
 
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