English Civil War: Royalists Take Gloucester

I've heard a lot of people say that the Roundheads lifting the siege of Gloucester was a turning point in the civil war.

For various reasons, maybe Rupert didn't bother with the cannon, or did and it fired successfully, the Royalists take Gloucester before the Earl of Essex could get there.

1) What would be the immediate outcome. What would Essex do? What would Rupert do?

2) How would the war play out after that? Could the royalists win? Would Gloucester serve as a base for the Royalists in Wales and the Southwest

3) based on no.2 How would the post war govt. be different?
 
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