English Church without the "Great Matter"

Had Catherine of Aragon given Henry a living son, or died in giving birth to the girl who in otl became 'Bloody Mary' what would have happened.

In OTL Henry and More were oppressing such Protestant sentiment as existed.

Would English Protestantism ever emerge, If it did might it be more radical.
 
Had Catherine of Aragon given Henry a living son, or died in giving birth to the girl who in otl became 'Bloody Mary' what would have happened.

In OTL Henry and More were oppressing such Protestant sentiment as existed.

Would English Protestantism ever emerge, If it did might it be more radical.
This has been discussed before, and the consensus was there's a lot of variables involved so it's hard to say.

IOTL, Henry's "Protestant" church was more or less independent Catholic with vernacular, the infusion of more "traditional" Protestant ideas happened gradually from there. Prior to that point, Henry was actually named Defender of the Catholic Faith, IIRC, and is unlikely to convert himself without the issue of an heir and annulment. There was already English protestants, especially among merchant and urban classes, so to a certain extent money he gained from seizing Church assets and put into the development of the nation could come from there, though likely not the same amount, which could have its own butterflies.

Religiously, without the push of the Monarchy, I don't see much potential for a sudden protestant conversion. Rather, the likely result is the kind of religious unrest and internal violence prevalent on the mainland at the time, with protestants generally finding patrons among the nobility or merchants against the monarchy and more traditional elite as they spread their message among dissatisfied elements of the population. There's also the question of whether Scotland still goes Protestant and how that might have an effect on these internal problems.

Politically, I'd guess that England would be pretty close to Spain in the immediate future, and follow them into the counter-reformation. That's unlikely to last forever, but for a few years, maybe a decade and a bit? Doable.

Then again, I'm basing this off of what I remember of the old discussion so I might be wrong.
 
This has been discussed before, and the consensus was there's a lot of variables involved so it's hard to say.

IOTL, Henry's "Protestant" church was more or less independent Catholic with vernacular, the infusion of more "traditional" Protestant ideas happened gradually from there. Prior to that point, Henry was actually named Defender of the Catholic Faith, IIRC, and is unlikely to convert himself without the issue of an heir and annulment. There was already English protestants, especially among merchant and urban classes, so to a certain extent money he gained from seizing Church assets and put into the development of the nation could come from there, though likely not the same amount, which could have its own butterflies.

Religiously, without the push of the Monarchy, I don't see much potential for a sudden protestant conversion. Rather, the likely result is the kind of religious unrest and internal violence prevalent on the mainland at the time, with protestants generally finding patrons among the nobility or merchants against the monarchy and more traditional elite as they spread their message among dissatisfied elements of the population. There's also the question of whether Scotland still goes Protestant and how that might have an effect on these internal problems.

Politically, I'd guess that England would be pretty close to Spain in the immediate future, and follow them into the counter-reformation. That's unlikely to last forever, but for a few years, maybe a decade and a bit? Doable.

Then again, I'm basing this off of what I remember of the old discussion so I might be wrong.
I don't think England stays RC for long. It's a mercantile nation, and is very, very likely to go Protestant as did the Netherlands, northern Germany, and Scandinavia. Whether it goes Lutheran or Calvinist or what, that's a good question. Without Henry pushing it, 'Anglicanism' as a third stream of Protestantism (fourth stream of Christianity, if you're Anglo-Catholic :) ), isn't likely to happen. But England breaking from Rome is.
 
I don't think England stays RC for long. It's a mercantile nation, and is very, very likely to go Protestant as did the Netherlands, northern Germany, and Scandinavia. Whether it goes Lutheran or Calvinist or what, that's a good question. Without Henry pushing it, 'Anglicanism' as a third stream of Protestantism (fourth stream of Christianity, if you're Anglo-Catholic :) ), isn't likely to happen. But England breaking from Rome is.

I don't think so. The only reason Protestantism succeeded because of official support. Think about it. What country became protestant in the 16th century when the monarchy remained Catholics?

The best analogy would be France. England would have protestant minorities and would cause trouble. But if the monarchy remained resolutely Catholic, he'll have the support of the great majority of the population in this matter. And the Catholics will win.

And then the Jesuits will come and covert the population who did become protestant back to being Catholic, like what happened in Austria and other places where there was a significant Protestant minority in a Catholic ruled country.

Later on, the English monarchy would sign a concordat with Rome, an "Anglicanism" that is parallel to French "Gallicanism".
 
I don't think England stays RC for long. It's a mercantile nation, and is very, very likely to go Protestant as did the Netherlands, northern Germany, and Scandinavia.

England is likely to have a large minority of Protestants based on mercantile interests in London and some of the ports, but a lot of the land is rural. Henry's move to Protestantism set off several large scale revolts.

I think we'd see a situation similar to France where there was substantial division, but because the kings and leading magnates wanted to stay Catholic, the country did.

Much of the allure of Protestantism in the German and Scandinavian lands is that those area were outside the Roman Empire, and a nationalist pride resented a Roman as head of the Church. England though was part of the cultural patrimony of the Roman Empire with a lot of historical important British/English saints.

Without the Great Matter, I think Catholicism triumphs although not without some significant religious disturbances and perhaps civil war(s).
 
England is likely to have a large minority of Protestants based on mercantile interests in London and some of the ports, but a lot of the land is rural. Henry's move to Protestantism set off several large scale revolts.

I think we'd see a situation similar to France where there was substantial division, but because the kings and leading magnates wanted to stay Catholic, the country did.

Much of the allure of Protestantism in the German and Scandinavian lands is that those area were outside the Roman Empire, and a nationalist pride resented a Roman as head of the Church. England though was part of the cultural patrimony of the Roman Empire with a lot of historical important British/English saints.

Without the Great Matter, I think Catholicism triumphs although not without some significant religious disturbances and perhaps civil war(s).

Do you think there will be an English equivalent of the Gallican Church in France? Sort of "Anglican" church within the Roman Catholic Church?
 
I don't think England stays RC for long. It's a mercantile nation, and is very, very likely to go Protestant as did the Netherlands, northern Germany, and Scandinavia. Whether it goes Lutheran or Calvinist or what, that's a good question. Without Henry pushing it, 'Anglicanism' as a third stream of Protestantism (fourth stream of Christianity, if you're Anglo-Catholic :) ), isn't likely to happen. But England breaking from Rome is.
As others say, while there's a significant mercantile population and a lot of profit associated, a larger portion of the population is rural and not as open to the anti-authority message of protestant preachers. Think more Switzerland than the Netherlands: there's many areas that are rural, conservative, and have made their peace with the problems of the current system, but there are a few areas, particularly larger cities, with large and growing mercantile populations that want a bigger voice. For sure, London and many southern parts of England will have very significant Protestant populations, at times maybe even approaching plurality/majority, but there'll be a big disconnect between them and the rest of the nation so long as the established authority stays Catholic. And, unfortunately for the Protestants, the population in the rural Catholic regions and the loyalists to the Crown are larger and more dangerous. However, England at this point in time is too centralized to permit a lot of differences in religious authority that could become set in stone over time, unlike Switzerland or the HRE, so the eventual peace made in those regions is not likely to occur here.

Plus, without the issue of the annulment, which was out of place given history and only refused due to the perceived insult to the Spanish influence on the Papacy, Henry will maintain his course of holding to Rome and persecuting Protestants.
 
I don't think so. The only reason Protestantism succeeded because of official support. Think about it. What country became protestant in the 16th century when the monarchy remained Catholics? .

Scotland?
The Netherlands and several Swiss cantons were bottom up conversions. As were some German states, iirc.

I do know that RC rulers occasionally inherited or were imposed on protestant states, and that rarely went well for the ruler.
 
Scotland?
The Netherlands and several Swiss cantons were bottom up conversions. As were some German states, iirc.

I do know that RC rulers occasionally inherited or were imposed on protestant states, and that rarely went well for the ruler.

Yes, but most of those were special cases, and not traditional European monarchies like France or Castile-Aragon-Navarre (still technically not Spain yet). I would argue that the rural Catholic population of England and the otherwise devout Henry "In Defense of the Seven Sacraments" Tudor would be enough to ensure that the country stays Catholic. The big move towards Protestantism happened under Edward, and if Henry just entrenches Catholicism during his reign, it's hard for me to see any of his successors being amenable to disestablishing it.
 
Scotland?
The Netherlands and several Swiss cantons were bottom up conversions. As were some German states, iirc.

I do know that RC rulers occasionally inherited or were imposed on protestant states, and that rarely went well for the ruler.

Well, IOTL, much of the Swiss conversion in general benefited from the dominant political factions of the urban cantons like Bern and Zurich, which were mercantile in the same style as the Netherlands. Many of the bottom up conversions were after Zwingli found support in those major cantons, so I don't think they are the best example. In the more rural cantons where power was gained it was usually due to a major priest or section of the local religious hierarchy coming to Zwingli's side and bringing their local flock with them. While that aspect could be possible in certain areas, particularly areas in England that are poorer and less enchanted with the monarchy(say, Wales, maybe?), the situation is different enough that I don't see that coming.

Regarding Scotland, my memory of the timeline is very fuzzy, but wasn't the royal family, and shortly most of the nobility, excommunicated due to a political conflict with the Papacy shortly before conversion? If I am remembering correctly, that seems like a different situation.
 
The Tudors depended heavily on "New Men" drawn from the gentry as their primary power base. The Wars of the Roses had broken much of the power of the traditional nobility, and Henry VII had made a deliberate policy of marginalizing the rest, with a handful of exceptions who were close allies of the King.

Protestantism in England was getting the most traction among the class from which the New Men were drawn, and much of the push during Henry VIII's reign towards Protestantism came from Protestant New Men (Thomas Cromwell, the Boleyns, the Seymours, etc). The split with Rome during the Great Matter made their path easier, by removing a major check against Protestant drift, but the pressure will still be there without the Great Matter.

If there is a regency for Henry VIII's heir ITTL, there is still a very real chance that the Protestant faction will capture the regency and break away from Rome. Even without a regency, it's likely that there will be an influential Protestant faction at court whose religious views are tolerated because they're useful, talented, and loyal to the King, and there will be plenty of opportunities for them to persuade the King to move in a Protestant direction.

Plausible scenarios I can see:

  1. Henry VIII takes smaller steps towards a break with Rome than IOTL(dissolving monasteries and demanding submission of the clergy, but on a less aggressive program than IOTL and without a statute in restraint of appeals). One of his successors takes a step further and breaks with Rome.
  2. Henry VIII or a successor purges the Protestant court faction, empowering the conservative old nobility instead. Without a period of Protestantism first, the Protestants in England aren't strong enough to mount an effective backlash, and England will likely stay Catholic. Big butterflies for the evolution of governing institutions in England.
  3. Protestantism is tolerated in the gentry, but the dynasty and established church stay Catholic. This would probably lead to either eventual conversion by the dynasty (equivalent to scenario 1, but on a longer timeline) or a major rebellion by the Protestant gentry (probably similar to the OTL English Civil Wars).
 

Asami

Banned
Scotland?
The Netherlands and several Swiss cantons were bottom up conversions. As were some German states, iirc.

I do know that RC rulers occasionally inherited or were imposed on protestant states, and that rarely went well for the ruler.

I think Saxony counts too, even though the Wettins were Catholic...
 
Top