A few questions:
First, how do you guys see Portuguese Africa gaining independence? ITTL, Portugal achieves her
Pink Map dreams, and Portuguese Africa stretches across Angola, Southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Southern Malawi and Mozambique (plus Guinea-Bissau in West Africa), much larger than OTL's Portuguese Africa. With Portugal being a rather small country controlling an area many times her size, I have a hard time seeing Portugal controlling it much longer, especially with Africa’s population explosion.
However, there’s one more thing that deserves mentioning, that being Brazil. Portugal is by this point playing second fiddle within their own empire, as the crown has moved to the much larger and more populous Brazil. I’d imagine that Angola and maybe Guinea-Bissau would be much more Brazilian than Portuguese, considering the historical ties between Brazil and Angola (especially the massive amount of slaves that were shipped from Angola to Brazil). Brazil had a population of 93 Million in OTL’s 1970, and I don’t see much of a reason for it to be different ITTL (if anything it might be higher than OTL, considering the wave of immigration TTL had from Southern Europe in the 1920s and 1930s, although if Brazil is more developed that would mean that the birth rate would drop earlier, although I’m guessing it’d be well above replacement at this point in the TL regardless). In case of a long, protracted colonial war in Southern Africa, Brazil would be able to supply huge amounts of men to be sent to Africa, and that might make it an overall equilibrium. Of course, Portugal could always make Angola and Mozambique (and maybe an interior country between the two) new nations within the greater Lusophone Commonwealth, which would be an option that could satisfy both sides.
Second, what happens in South Africa? TTL’s South Africa controls all of OTL’s South Africa sans
Kwazulu-Natal and the part of the
Eastern Cape province east of the
Great Fish River, plus Lesotho, Botswana and Namibia. In the last update on South Africa, I estimated the demographic breakdown between Blacks and non-Blacks in South Africa to be about 50/50. Notice that I said the division between Black/non-Black, not White/non-White. This is because I’m not sure what the fate of the
Cape Coloured population would be ITTL compared to our own. IOTL, the Cape Coloreds remained a separate ethnic group, and upon the implementation of Apartheid became second class, albeit above the native Africans. ITTL, South Africa sees large scale immigration from Europe during the 19th and Early-Mid 20th Centuries (especially once gold and diamonds were found), and with the influx of newcomers, it’s possible that the Afrikaners feel less demographically insecure, thus encouraging the South African government to encourage intermarriage between Whites and Coloureds, gradually diluting the non-White ancestry, ending up with a White population that has a noticeable portion of non-European ancestry, similar to
White Brazilians or
Argentines. Then again, there is a strong xenophobic streak within Afrikaner culture, so intermarriage may still be frowned upon (possibly even intermarriage between Afrikaners and later European immigrants, especially those that aren’t Calvinists). I expect there to be a deal of ethnic tension in TTL’s South Africa, not just between Blacks and Whites, but even between different segments of the White population (whether between the Cape Region and the Highveld or between Afrikaners and
Uitlanders).
Speaking of ethnic tension, the White-dominated South Africa is going to face a big demographic crisis. It’s no secret that things like urbanization and education significantly reduce the birth rate, and that’s no different ITTL (although maybe not to the same extent as IOTL, due to my hunch that this TL will all in all be more conservative and religious than our own, and that pronatalist policies won’t have been tainted by the Nazis). The White South African fertility rate will in all likelihood decline to somewhere in the high 1’s or low 2’s (replacement level in developed countries is 2.1 children per woman). Meanwhile, the Black birthrate in South Africa will in all likelihood remain much higher (as it was during the later Apartheid years IOTL), tipping the demographic balance of power in their favor. As of 1930, the ratio of Blacks to non-Blacks in South Africa was about 50/50, but I’d expect South Africa to be majority black later on in time, setting up the possibility of a “
revenge of the cradle” situation. This would put increasing pressure on TTL’s Apartheid equivalent (which I’m pretty sure would still exist, albeit possibly not as harsh), either to double down or to reform. A split might even be possible, whether a peaceful division or a Yugoslavia-esque collapse. I could see the South African government engaging in population control on the Black population in order to forcibly lower the birth rate, ranging from promoting birth control (while simultaneously discouraging Whites from using it) to…
more unpleasant things. Admittedly South Africa is something I may rework when I make my Maps & Graphics TL after this TL reaches the present (likely sometime in 2022), so I’d like to hear your suggestions for what Southern Africa will be like ITTL (I already know what I’m doing for British Natal, which is why I left it out of the equation). I should hopefully have the update out soon, and until then, have a good one.