In a scenario where the Whites win the Russian Civil War (let's leave what post-White Victory Russia is like vague but assume they are a shaky democracy with more or less the 1922 borders of the USSR), what would enforcement of the Treaty of Versailles look like? Do we see stricter enforcement of Versailles with a (somewhat) friendly Russian Republic/Empire instead of the spectre of the USSR?
Enforcement of Versailles in a White Victory scenario
- Thread starter Whiteshore
- Start date
True, but the focus here in on how the lack of the spectre of the USSR (replaced with a weak republic/constitutional monarchy) affects enforcement of Versailles.
White Russia keeps alliance with France. Central Europe is Russo-French co-dominium. If Germans try something stupid they'll be steamrolled by Franci-Russo-Czecho-Polish coalition. So they would not try. And would keep close ties with UK which would see Russo-French block as danger.
Of course there'd be butterflies in Germany if there's no Soviet spectre. And alot will have to do with how the new Russian Republic develops and how it for example would behave towards Poland or the Baltic States. If France is pro- Polish and the Russian government is as eager to dismember it as the USSR was, they'd not be that serious in keeping Germany in check, since they might consider the Germans a temporary ally against Poland.
For France Poland and Czechoslovakia were just ersatz of White Russia. With vicorious Whites alliance would continue. Poland and Czechoslovakia were part of French sphere of influence. ITTL due to Russo-French alliance they have no choice but submit to Russian domination. If Whites won we could assume that Poland supported them so instead of Piłsudski there is another leader in Poland, perhaps National Democrats dominate, so Polish-Russian reconcilliation is possible. For Russia main rival would be UK. We'll see return to Great Game in Central Asia and Caucasus. UK would quickly turn against former allies and ally with Germany.
If Russia wins I dont think Poland will be on the map. Also for the Russo-french alliance to continue they would need to keep the proises made to Russia during the war - which is really inconvenient and Russia really wont be in a position to force the issue. Also after the victory France wont need Russia nearly as much so they might drop them. IMO Brittain will change sides pretty fast - they dont want Russia and France dominating.
In which case France and Brittain made peace without Russia and ignoring all promises that was made to Russia. Also OTL the reds tried to retake Poland but the polish has beaten them at Warshaw with french help. I dont see the whites not trying reconquest. That leaves France in a difficult position. However even if France sits back and lets Poland fall, Russia will still resent them because the promises to them werent fullfilled.
White Russia was not in position to try reconquer Poland in 1920. First thing-they already agreed for Polish independence (there was only question of border to quarell about). Second thing-Whites would be weaker than Reds were after victory in civil war. Reds' stronghold was Central Russia, industrial hearthland of Russian Empire. That hearthland need to be reconquered (thus devasted) by Whites. Third thing-Whites were not one united force. Only thing that kept them together was the fact that they fought Bolsheviks. Once Bolsheviks are gone various White fractions would quarell about power.
I willingly admit that im not an expert on post war Russia. But there are certain things I expect from a white Russia in this case:
1. Conflic with Poland. Maybe not immediate but its coming sooner or later. Both mistrust each other to a great level and have territorial claims on the other.
2. They will have some kind of conflict with the western Powers. Russia sacrified a great deal in the war, its allies won and he received nothing -if you are right they ended up with Poland and Finland lost. That means resentment.
3. The other question is the dept towards France. OTL the Soviets managed to avoid repaying it (1922 Geneva). Can a white Russia do the same? If it can that ends the alliance with France. If it cant it will mean even more resentment toward France in Russia.
4. Brittain will be in best case neutral toward Europe in worst case supportive towards Germany.
1. Conflic with Poland. Maybe not immediate but its coming sooner or later. Both mistrust each other to a great level and have territorial claims on the other.
2. They will have some kind of conflict with the western Powers. Russia sacrified a great deal in the war, its allies won and he received nothing -if you are right they ended up with Poland and Finland lost. That means resentment.
3. The other question is the dept towards France. OTL the Soviets managed to avoid repaying it (1922 Geneva). Can a white Russia do the same? If it can that ends the alliance with France. If it cant it will mean even more resentment toward France in Russia.
4. Brittain will be in best case neutral toward Europe in worst case supportive towards Germany.
Or they move towards Germany if the latter is smart and Russia not. When it came to the nations that gained independence from Russia, in OTL White generals had a suicidal attitude (given their situation). For Poland to support them they would have to drop it.
Even Denikin was able to to make some compromise about borders, Wrangel should be more flexible (not only in Polish matters but also with dealing with non-communist socialists, if Whites won somehow I think he is most likely leader to lead them to victory). And territories Poles and Russians quarelled about-Volhynia and Western Belarus were not worth much, neither for Poland nor for Russia. So there are more chances for compromise than with Corridor and Danzig. Plus for Russia these lands would nor be first priority-Baltic States and Transcaucasia (weaker Whites had less chances to keep Georgia, Armenia and Azarbaijan than Soviets, and britain pushed for independence of Caucasian republics) would be, and UK would be main opponent of Russian reconquest of these lands. So after Civil War is over we have two main alliances: Russo-French and British-German.
Who sides with whom in White victory scenario:
UK-fears Russo-French domination of the Continent. Wants strong Germany as counterbalance. Try to enforce German-Polish reconcilliation (propably unsuccesfully).
France-wants Germany as weak as possible, so we'd have break of French-British alliance. Seeks for alliance with Russia against their common rival... UK (which happen to be German ally ITTL).
Russia-has resentments against Britain. UK supports independence of Baltic and Transcaucasian States (more important areas for Russia than troublesome Poland) and is Russia's traditional rival in Central Asia.
-Poland and Czechoslovakia sides with France and Russia due to lack of better options. Romania and Yugoslavia too due to being allied to Czechoslovakia. France wants Germany weak so would still support Poles and Czechs against Germans
-Baltic States, Italy, Turkey and Transcaucasian republics side with UK and Germany due to fear of Russia and in the case of Italy-dependence of imported coal and rivalization with France.
UK-fears Russo-French domination of the Continent. Wants strong Germany as counterbalance. Try to enforce German-Polish reconcilliation (propably unsuccesfully).
France-wants Germany as weak as possible, so we'd have break of French-British alliance. Seeks for alliance with Russia against their common rival... UK (which happen to be German ally ITTL).
Russia-has resentments against Britain. UK supports independence of Baltic and Transcaucasian States (more important areas for Russia than troublesome Poland) and is Russia's traditional rival in Central Asia.
-Poland and Czechoslovakia sides with France and Russia due to lack of better options. Romania and Yugoslavia too due to being allied to Czechoslovakia. France wants Germany weak so would still support Poles and Czechs against Germans
-Baltic States, Italy, Turkey and Transcaucasian republics side with UK and Germany due to fear of Russia and in the case of Italy-dependence of imported coal and rivalization with France.