Enduring Outremer- The Second Crusade

When the King Louis, Queen Eleanor and the French crusaders arrived in the Outremer, they arrived in Antioch. Here Prince Raymond wanted the French to aid him and his forces in an attack on the city of Aleppo. Louis was some jealousy issues with Eleanor and Raymond's relationship, and decided to leave the city and continue on to Jerusalem.

At Jerusalem the Crusaders decided to attack Damascus, the only reliable Muslim ally the Crusader States had. The attack failed and the Crusaders left, having delivered Damascus into the hands of Nur el-Din, a Muslim warlord who united Syria and set the stage for Saladin's rise.

So lets say that Raymond and Eleanor are more convincing. Louis decides to attack Aleppo along with Raymond and the remnants of Edessa's forces (the Fall of Edessa prompted the Crusade). Louis' decision to attack Aleppo forces the other Crusader states and the German forces already in Jerusalem to join the attack.

Nur el-Din leads an attempt to relieve the siege, but he is killed in the attempt, leaving the Muslim forces in Syria in disarray. With Nur el-Din's death the city of Aleppo falls to the Crusaders. It is throughly sacked and Thierry, the Count of Flanders, is made the Count of Aleppo, swearing alliegance to Baldwin, his half-brother and the King of Jerusalem.

With the victory over Aleppo there is another council, and competing proposals to liberate Edessa, or to attack Damascus. In the end there is no decision, and the crusaders disperse.

With the fall of Aleppo, the momentum in the Outremer starts to go in favor of the Crusaders. Damascus is basically cut off from any Muslim forces that could relieve it in the event of a Crusader attack. Furthermore, with the investment of a foreign count in Aleppo, that city is heavily fortified. In the 1150's a Crusader attack is launched on Damascus, and that city falls to the Crusaders. By 1160 the Crusader States control Syria, and are in a position to maintain themselves for a long time.
 
Crusaders

Maybe. The Muslims are still strong in Egypt, Mesopotamia, and North Africa. The Seljuks are viable in eastern Asia Minor. A plan for intensive settlement from western Europe would probably not work, because of the feudal nature of the crusader states and western Europe at the time.
 
What if the crusaders adopted a non-feudal system like in the spanish reconquista? In Castille and in Aragon kings gave "fueros" to the border towns and villages in order to encourage settlements there. Their inhabitants were subjects of the king only and paid no tributes to any "intermediate", thus having legal and economic advantages.

The POD could be Valencia being effectively incorporated to Castille thanks to the Cid Campeador leaving the kings of Aragon and the counts of Barcelona without the possibility of expanding south. They could see Holy Land as a new opportunity and they could participate in the crusades exporting there hispanic ways of settling in islamic lands.
 
Maybe. The Muslims are still strong in Egypt, Mesopotamia, and North Africa. The Seljuks are viable in eastern Asia Minor. A plan for intensive settlement from western Europe would probably not work, because of the feudal nature of the crusader states and western Europe at the time.

The need was not for intensive peasant settlement of Syria, but rather for more knights. Capturing fertile land with Arab peasants that needed lords would encourage knightly settlement from Europe.

The capture of Aleppo and Damascus would encourage more European settlement of the Outremer, since Aleppo was one of the important end points of the Silk Road. Italian city-states that already had concessions in the Outremer ports would want to have concessions in the newly acquired cities. With control over more fertile areas also the Crusaders would probably impose religion taxes ala the Ottomans, and with control over the mostly Muslim cities of Aleppo and Damascus, then the taxes could well encourage the Arab merchant class to convert, again as was seen in the Balkans with the Ottomans.

It seems to me also that the capture of these cities would mean that stability would finally come to the Outremer. The founding of a major university seems like it would be in the cards, since the translation of Arabic works was so important to the development of European scholarship. Jerusalem already held an enormously important place in Christiandom as the birthplace of the religion. Add in the areas importance in trade and scholarship would seem to follow. The position of the Outremer would also encourage the knowledge of Arabic, aiding in the translation of these works. Conversion of parts of the native population to Christianity would only aid these efforts.
 
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