Would the Soviets intervene on the behalf of the Nationalists against the Japanese if the latter attacks?Or, if they became interested in doing so, Soviet intervention against Japan that turns out to be militarily decisive in Northeast Asia.
Wasn't the main reason for OTL's Ichi-Go's success being the fact that Japan had invaded Burma, cutting off the KMT from their supply lines with their British allies?If neither of these have happened by 1942 and 1943, I could see Japan conquering more of Southeast China via the Ichigo offensive.
Would the Soviets intervene on the behalf of the Nationalists against the Japanese if the latter attacks?
What could be done to actually establish a Popular Front between the Nationalists and Communists?If the Soviets intervene, it would be on their own behalf, first, last and always. The Nationalists and Communists would both benefit in the short-run from the bashing of the Japanese. The Soviets would do some coordination with, provide some aid to, and try to influence *both* the Nationalists and Communists, which is actually possible to pull off for awhile because even if the Chinese parties clash, they are nominally allied against Japan.
Genocide against the Chinese people by the Japanese would work quite well narrowing that divide.What could be done to actually establish a Popular Front between the Nationalists and Communists?
I think you are underestimating how far the Soviets are behindWith no WW2 the Soviet naval buildup continues, the ships are not top quality but they're in quantities the Japanese can not match with air cover from land. The Soviets invade to settle the score with Japan, take Manchuria and Korea and whatever fighting in China proper is still going on dies down quickly.
I meant it more as a precuation against any funny ideas by the Japanese, and unlike the Japanese the Soviet navy has no fuel problems. Japan being cut off from foreign sources of raw materials will sting, especially the navy which needs huge quantities of good steel.I think you are underestimating how far the Soviets are behind
In 1941 it looks like this
BB
Japan 4 14" ships, 2 16", 4 18.1" building. USSR 3 12" BB, 3 16" BB building
BC
Japan 4 14" ships. USSR 2 15" ships building, with German guns and parts.
CV
Japan 4 with 3 building, 2 converting. USSR 0
CVL
Japan 3 with 2 converting. USSR 0
CA
Japan 18. USSR 4 with 3 building, some use Italian parts
CL
Japan 23 with 6 building. USSR 2 with 6 building
PCR
Japan 0. USSR 1
ACR
Japan 3. USSR 0
Destroyers were more even but still skewed to Japan, and subs the USSR might have a slight edge and a big one in small fry, but I am sure you get the point they had quite some ways to go to match the IJN in a fight and were not building that much faster than Japan was. It will be a long time before they match Japan, and even longer before they surpass enough to make up for their geographic issues, issues in China will be long settled before that point
On land of course they can roll up the Japanese whenever they feel like it
Well you should have said do. You made it sound like the USSR was going to bury Japan in shipbuilding, which was not the case, the USSR can make things miserable for Japan at sea, but for the mid term future that is allI meant it more as a precuation against any funny ideas by the Japanese, and unlike the Japanese the Soviet navy has no fuel problems. Japan being cut off from foreign sources of raw materials will sting, especially the navy which needs huge quantities of good steel.
Allies? Germany needs more steel than it produces and Italy is a non issue. The embargos are most likely coming on time, no one was happy about Japan destroying their China business so there's the incentive. International trade wasnt like today where raw material suppliers are lining up to sell you, supply of metals and oil was quite limited and export bans even in peace time quite common.Well you should have said do. You made it sound like the USSR was going to bury Japan in shipbuilding, which was not the case, the USSR can make things miserable for Japan at sea, but for the mid term future that is all
Without WWII not sure why they would be cut off, the US is in no position to force cooperation for an embargo in the absence of a war in Europe, and Japan would have allies capable of subverting it in the absence of a war
So what, unless you embargo them to, then Germany and Italy can serve as middlemen and take a cut of the action. And Germany does not need more steel than it makes, no WWII, remember, their rearmament is not sustainable, have to cut back before Japan would get embargoedAllies? Germany needs more steel than it produces and Italy is a non issue. The embargos are most likely coming on time, no one was happy about Japan destroying their China business so there's the incentive. International trade wasnt like today where raw material suppliers are lining up to sell you, supply of metals and oil was quite limited and export bans even in peace time quite common.
I'd imagine Germany would be in a Cold War like situation in Europe, so steel is needed there regardless of a World War.So what, unless you embargo them to, then Germany and Italy can serve as middlemen and take a cut of the action. And Germany does not need more steel than it makes, no WWII, remember, their rearmament is not sustainable, have to cut back before Japan would get embargoed
No one is exactly happy, but in the US at least an embargo steps on a lot of toes and requires political capital that may not be forthcoming absent a European war, and in other countries cases, well business with Japan is probably worth more than business with China at the moment
They can't afford to keep rearming at their present pace, they only sustained it as long as they did by looting Austria and the Czechs as well as playing economic games. They have to either massively cut back on arms immediately or they suffer an economic collapse, they cannot sustain their OTL level of arms production (and thus steel consumption) much longerI'd imagine Germany would be in a Cold War like situation in Europe, so steel is needed there regardless of a World War.
Lets go with Hitler dying before invasion of PolandIt depends on how WW2 is avoided, does appeasement work or do the Allies just let Hitler invade Poland. If it's the latter and the Soviets do intervene, then the Nazis may take it as an opportunity to invade. If Britain and France don't draw the line at Poland, I doubt they would for the Soviets. Furthermore I doubt either of them would do more than embargo the Japanese, an intervention for them would be too costly.