Endgame of Second Sino-Japanese war without World war 2

Say World War 2 doesn't happen

What the Endgame for the Second Sino-Japanese

Do Japan and China eventually make peace

Does Japan successfully take most of China or does it withdraw to its pre-war empire and defend-able areas
 
I can't claim to be an expert on the Second Sino-Japanese War but I think it'd result in a stalemate.

If Chongqing and Tokyo can come to an agreement such as a return to either pre-1931 or pre-1937 borders, then they can possibly come to a peace.

I think Japan might be able to contribute more forces that aren't stretched across Southeast Asia and/or the Pacific but I doubt it can hold onto China past Manchuria indefinitely.
 
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raharris1973

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No endgame.

They domestically politically cannot make peace in China or Japan.

So it's an endless game.

China will suffer from ever worsening structural damage and Japan will be in a costly quagmire.

The only thing forcing an end would be a strong international embargo on Japan, plus time for that embargo to have crippling effects.

Or, if they became interested in doing so, Soviet intervention against Japan that turns out to be militarily decisive in Northeast Asia.

If neither of these have happened by 1942 and 1943, I could see Japan conquering more of Southeast China via the Ichigo offensive.
 
If neither of these have happened by 1942 and 1943, I could see Japan conquering more of Southeast China via the Ichigo offensive.
Wasn't the main reason for OTL's Ichi-Go's success being the fact that Japan had invaded Burma, cutting off the KMT from their supply lines with their British allies?
If there's no Hitler rampaging across Europe, there's no Japanese invasion of Southeast Asia and, thus, no Japanese invasion of Burma. Attacking the KMT becomes much harder in this situation.
 
The Three Alls will see biological and chemical weapons added to the mix. Expect Chinese and Korean men forced into military roles for Japan as they scrape the bottom of the barrel for soldiers. Forced famine, ethnic cleansing, and worse atrocities await. Neither side is coming out whole. China could very well fracture as the warlords do what's best for them to survive. Japan is going to have a demographic issue as well as mental health problems.

The West won't stand by forever as Cambodia on roids happens. You'll likely see an embargo followed by a blockade with weapon shipments. Boots on the ground? Maybe but likely not only dragging out this nightmare.
 
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raharris1973

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Would the Soviets intervene on the behalf of the Nationalists against the Japanese if the latter attacks?

If the Soviets intervene, it would be on their own behalf, first, last and always. The Nationalists and Communists would both benefit in the short-run from the bashing of the Japanese. The Soviets would do some coordination with, provide some aid to, and try to influence *both* the Nationalists and Communists, which is actually possible to pull off for awhile because even if the Chinese parties clash, they are nominally allied against Japan.
 
If the Soviets intervene, it would be on their own behalf, first, last and always. The Nationalists and Communists would both benefit in the short-run from the bashing of the Japanese. The Soviets would do some coordination with, provide some aid to, and try to influence *both* the Nationalists and Communists, which is actually possible to pull off for awhile because even if the Chinese parties clash, they are nominally allied against Japan.
What could be done to actually establish a Popular Front between the Nationalists and Communists?
 
Eventually the last Japanese man capable of serving in a military capacity will be shot, and then the war will end.
 
With no WW2 the Soviet naval buildup continues, the ships are not top quality but they're in quantities the Japanese can not match with air cover from land. The Soviets invade to settle the score with Japan, take Manchuria and Korea and whatever fighting in China proper is still going on dies down quickly.
 
With no WW2 the Soviet naval buildup continues, the ships are not top quality but they're in quantities the Japanese can not match with air cover from land. The Soviets invade to settle the score with Japan, take Manchuria and Korea and whatever fighting in China proper is still going on dies down quickly.
I think you are underestimating how far the Soviets are behind

In 1941 it looks like this

BB
Japan 4 14" ships, 2 16", 4 18.1" building. USSR 3 12" BB, 3 16" BB building
BC
Japan 4 14" ships. USSR 2 15" ships building, with German guns and parts.
CV
Japan 4 with 3 building, 2 converting. USSR 0
CVL
Japan 3 with 2 converting. USSR 0
CA
Japan 18. USSR 4 with 3 building, some use Italian parts
CL
Japan 23 with 6 building. USSR 2 with 6 building
PCR
Japan 0. USSR 1
ACR
Japan 3. USSR 0

Destroyers were more even but still skewed to Japan, and subs the USSR might have a slight edge and a big one in small fry, but I am sure you get the point they had quite some ways to go to match the IJN in a fight and were not building that much faster than Japan was. It will be a long time before they match Japan, and even longer before they surpass enough to make up for their geographic issues, issues in China will be long settled before that point

On land of course they can roll up the Japanese whenever they feel like it
 
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I think you are underestimating how far the Soviets are behind

In 1941 it looks like this

BB
Japan 4 14" ships, 2 16", 4 18.1" building. USSR 3 12" BB, 3 16" BB building
BC
Japan 4 14" ships. USSR 2 15" ships building, with German guns and parts.
CV
Japan 4 with 3 building, 2 converting. USSR 0
CVL
Japan 3 with 2 converting. USSR 0
CA
Japan 18. USSR 4 with 3 building, some use Italian parts
CL
Japan 23 with 6 building. USSR 2 with 6 building
PCR
Japan 0. USSR 1
ACR
Japan 3. USSR 0

Destroyers were more even but still skewed to Japan, and subs the USSR might have a slight edge and a big one in small fry, but I am sure you get the point they had quite some ways to go to match the IJN in a fight and were not building that much faster than Japan was. It will be a long time before they match Japan, and even longer before they surpass enough to make up for their geographic issues, issues in China will be long settled before that point

On land of course they can roll up the Japanese whenever they feel like it
I meant it more as a precuation against any funny ideas by the Japanese, and unlike the Japanese the Soviet navy has no fuel problems. Japan being cut off from foreign sources of raw materials will sting, especially the navy which needs huge quantities of good steel.
 
I meant it more as a precuation against any funny ideas by the Japanese, and unlike the Japanese the Soviet navy has no fuel problems. Japan being cut off from foreign sources of raw materials will sting, especially the navy which needs huge quantities of good steel.
Well you should have said do. You made it sound like the USSR was going to bury Japan in shipbuilding, which was not the case, the USSR can make things miserable for Japan at sea, but for the mid term future that is all

Without WWII not sure why they would be cut off, the US is in no position to force cooperation for an embargo in the absence of a war in Europe, and Japan would have allies capable of subverting it in the absence of a war
 
Well you should have said do. You made it sound like the USSR was going to bury Japan in shipbuilding, which was not the case, the USSR can make things miserable for Japan at sea, but for the mid term future that is all

Without WWII not sure why they would be cut off, the US is in no position to force cooperation for an embargo in the absence of a war in Europe, and Japan would have allies capable of subverting it in the absence of a war
Allies? Germany needs more steel than it produces and Italy is a non issue. The embargos are most likely coming on time, no one was happy about Japan destroying their China business so there's the incentive. International trade wasnt like today where raw material suppliers are lining up to sell you, supply of metals and oil was quite limited and export bans even in peace time quite common.
 
Allies? Germany needs more steel than it produces and Italy is a non issue. The embargos are most likely coming on time, no one was happy about Japan destroying their China business so there's the incentive. International trade wasnt like today where raw material suppliers are lining up to sell you, supply of metals and oil was quite limited and export bans even in peace time quite common.
So what, unless you embargo them to, then Germany and Italy can serve as middlemen and take a cut of the action. And Germany does not need more steel than it makes, no WWII, remember, their rearmament is not sustainable, have to cut back before Japan would get embargoed

No one is exactly happy, but in the US at least an embargo steps on a lot of toes and requires political capital that may not be forthcoming absent a European war, and in other countries cases, well business with Japan is probably worth more than business with China at the moment
 
So what, unless you embargo them to, then Germany and Italy can serve as middlemen and take a cut of the action. And Germany does not need more steel than it makes, no WWII, remember, their rearmament is not sustainable, have to cut back before Japan would get embargoed

No one is exactly happy, but in the US at least an embargo steps on a lot of toes and requires political capital that may not be forthcoming absent a European war, and in other countries cases, well business with Japan is probably worth more than business with China at the moment
I'd imagine Germany would be in a Cold War like situation in Europe, so steel is needed there regardless of a World War.
 
I'd imagine Germany would be in a Cold War like situation in Europe, so steel is needed there regardless of a World War.
They can't afford to keep rearming at their present pace, they only sustained it as long as they did by looting Austria and the Czechs as well as playing economic games. They have to either massively cut back on arms immediately or they suffer an economic collapse, they cannot sustain their OTL level of arms production (and thus steel consumption) much longer

Plus even so they can always act as middlemen for Japan, makes them money and keeps ally strong
 
It depends on how WW2 is avoided, does appeasement work or do the Allies just let Hitler invade Poland. If it's the latter and the Soviets do intervene, then the Nazis may take it as an opportunity to invade. If Britain and France don't draw the line at Poland, I doubt they would for the Soviets. Furthermore I doubt either of them would do more than embargo the Japanese, an intervention for them would be too costly.

If appeasement works then the Soviets would probably take similar steps as they did in the OTL and annex the Baltic states, invade Finland and maybe even Poland which could also start a war with the Nazis. Either way I don't really think the Soviets or the West could really afford or get away with an intervention in China.

The British will arm the Chinese, and the US embargo will still come into effect. That cripples the Japanese war machine and without fighting in Europe, taking the Dutch East Indies and other European colonies may be less appealing. With the embargo the Japanese could maybe, maybe, continue the War for another two years. Or they could try to force a peace with smaller concessions than they initially intended. If they try to continue the War, I'm willing to bet on worse atrocities in an attempt to end the War as quickly as possible. By the time that's over we'd be looking at a China in famine with no real group able to claim power and a Japan in economic collapse. They both lose, but China loses more.
 
It depends on how WW2 is avoided, does appeasement work or do the Allies just let Hitler invade Poland. If it's the latter and the Soviets do intervene, then the Nazis may take it as an opportunity to invade. If Britain and France don't draw the line at Poland, I doubt they would for the Soviets. Furthermore I doubt either of them would do more than embargo the Japanese, an intervention for them would be too costly.
Lets go with Hitler dying before invasion of Poland
 
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