Empty Africa

A variation of Years of Rice and Salt

Some event (it does not have to be a pandemic, although I suspect that makes the best means) empties Africa of 95% of it's Sub-saharan population circa 1405.

1) Is such an event remotely plausable or simply ASB?

2) What non-pandemic mechanisms might have this effect?

3) How does this effect history?


No African slave trade. The slaves for the Americas come from native populations. Possible development of indentured servitued into an even more overt slavery.
 
It just seems so unlikely.

1. North Africa (including Kush and Sahel) trades with the Mediterranean and Europe primarily.

Any pandemic would surely spread North first into societies with similar agriculture and political establishments. The question is, would they catch it from the South? In the Sahel it seems somewhat possible. So African pandemic = European pandemic.

2. Africa has more genetic diversity than all the other continents put together, squared. Or something like that.

If there's anywhere that a resistant population is likely to be found, it's Africa. The repopulation could be pretty quick afterwards - several hundred years at most.

3. As mentioned before, Sub-Saharan Africa has both pure pastoralists and a native agriculture, which is different from North African agriculture.

If something makes one of these modes of living impractical, competing modes would use the land to develop in their own way, i.e. pastoralists would take over from agricultural societies, or vice versa.

4. Africa had little East-West continental trade compared to north-south trade. Mountains and jungles got in the way. What affects the Kongo would likely not affect Buganda to the same extent.

What time period is the POD supposed to be in?
 
If we're talking a pandemic, then Year of Rice and Salt level devastation is already ASB, but especially in Africa. Africa has the harshest disease environment on the planet, so the population has over-all more robust immunity levels, and the population isn't highly urbanized, especially at time period.

A variation of Years of Rice and Salt

Some event (it does not have to be a pandemic, although I suspect that makes the best means) empties Africa of 95% of it's Sub-saharan population circa 1405.

1) Is such an event remotely plausable or simply ASB?

2) What non-pandemic mechanisms might have this effect?

3) How does this effect history?


No African slave trade. The slaves for the Americas come from native populations. Possible development of indentured servitued into an even more overt slavery.
 
It just seems so unlikely.

1. North Africa (including Kush and Sahel) trades with the Mediterranean and Europe primarily.

Any pandemic would surely spread North first into societies with similar agriculture and political establishments. The question is, would they catch it from the South? In the Sahel it seems somewhat possible. So African pandemic = European pandemic.

2. Africa has more genetic diversity than all the other continents put together, squared. Or something like that.

If there's anywhere that a resistant population is likely to be found, it's Africa. The repopulation could be pretty quick afterwards - several hundred years at most.

3. As mentioned before, Sub-Saharan Africa has both pure pastoralists and a native agriculture, which is different from North African agriculture.

If something makes one of these modes of living impractical, competing modes would use the land to develop in their own way, i.e. pastoralists would take over from agricultural societies, or vice versa.

4. Africa had little East-West continental trade compared to north-south trade. Mountains and jungles got in the way. What affects the Kongo would likely not affect Buganda to the same extent.

I was thinking there'd be serious problems w/ a pandemic, hence the question re other mechanisms.

What time period is the POD supposed to be in?

I left it open on purpose.

What got me thinking about this was a bit of a spin off from the music WIs thread in the post 1900 forum. One idea I had was to remove the influance of African music on modern popular music. The logical extreme extension is removing African cultural inflances, and an empty "pre-European" Africa was what came to mind...
 
Let's just approach this as an ASB. Let's also assume North Africa is depopulated.

North Africa would become the first logical step. Presumably everything east of Libya will be settled from the Mediterranean. So you'd see an influx of people from Iberia, Italy, and the south of France into the area. I'd bet on most of the settlers coming from Castile, Naples, and Sicily. Venice and Genoa (and for that matter, Portugal) were looking for trade routes at this point, not new lands.

An interesting question is, whenever Granada gets fully conquered, what will happen to the Moors (and eventually the Jews) of Iberia?) I could see the different Spanish kingdoms expelling them to a "pale of settlement" in North Africa, as they would make useful frontiersmen. So you may still have some Muslims in North Africa after all. Perhaps even a Jewish kingdom, if you play your cards right.

The Ottomans are in the catbird's seat if they play their cards right as well. IIRC, there were still some Ghazi states in Asia minor in the way, but without Egypt the Syrian possessions of the Mamalukes should fall like a deck of cards. At which point, the Ottomans would be pretty well positioned to resettle the Nile with whichever ethnic group they wished. An interesting question will be if they'll consider Egypt part of "Europe" for tax purposes - which would allow Christians from the Balkans to settle the lands without fear of conversion, and also allow the Ottomans a hefty new tax base.

East Africa will probably be quickly resettled by Arabs of all stripes. If history unfolds anything like HE, Oman will be best positioned here. Unfortunately, I can't see China or any Indian state getting in the mix.

I don't expect South Africa to be too different from HE initially - the indigenous population was already sparse after all. Of course, there will be less resistance to pushing inwards once whoever establishes the cape consolidates there.

Going beyond this, it gets more difficult. Some predictions.

1. Ethiopia and the Sahel get settled, but beyond that there is minimal settlement in Africa until at least the 1800s - the New World is still far better after all.
2. Probably no coffee, as it was barely known of outside of Ethiopia at this point, if at all.
3. Obviously nothing resembling the HE slave trade. The cash crop economy in general is pretty screwed, and certainly delayed. With Africans gone, Native Americans rare, and Europeans not doing well in tropical climates, the whole area - but particularly the Caribbean islands, will be retarded in growth.
4. That is until someone gets the idea to import large numbers of plantation workers from India. This would still probably not be done until the 1800s, but even with that, they'd probably end up the predominant ethnic group through a wide band reaching from the Caribbean to West Africa. Would make for some interesting color lines.
 
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