子罕言利與命與仁。
The subjects of which the Master seldom spoke were: profitableness, and also the appointments of Heaven, and perfect virtue.
The Qing invasion force had scarcely left Taiwan, abandoning the island to its fate and returning to the Chinese mainland, before the vultures started to circle around what had suddenly become terra nullus. The only European presence on Taiwan in 1683 belonged to the English, who had maintained a struggling factory since 1670 at Anping (1). Though they had mostly found themselves out-competed during their time on Taiwan, after the departure of the Qing the English suddenly found themselves in the catbird's seat. They quickly moved to take advantage, after confirming the veracity of what had originally seemed to good to be true – the Qing really had just packed up and gone home. Their first move was to occupy Fort Zeelandia, the Dutch-built fortifications that protected the city. Having been required to supply trained gunners for Zheng Jing's service as a condition of their trade agreement, the English had enough knowledgeable personnel to properly garrison the fortress, which had not been denuded of its guns; the few local aborigines that still held to Christianity after twenty years of Sinicization were put on the payroll as well to round out the garrison of the English territory of “New Zealand.” The local Han Chinese population, scattered and disorganized after migrations to the New World and back to the Chinese mainland, could not coalesce around an alternative to the English. Thomas Woolhouse, the senior factor, declared himself the governor of the territory, which did not extend past the town limits. Nor was it likely to in the foreseeable future. The British were weaker in East Asia than either of the other two major European powers that contested the region. Had they not been first on the ground, it is likely they would have been shut out of Taiwan altogether. As it was, their focus was more on holding Anping than it was on extending the territory they controlled. This left the door open for further European commercial and colonial penetration of Taiwan.
Until being rudely evicted from Taiwan by Zheng Chenggong in 1662, the Dutch had exercised sovereignty over portions of the island. Enough information continued to flow from both Taiwan and mainland China to Batavia, headquarters of the Dutch East India Company (VOC), to give the Dutch some indication that not only had the Zhengs gone, but the Qing had also abandoned Taiwan and thus the island was once again very much open for business. In the summer of 1684, a VOC ship bound for Nagasaki was directed to make a survey of the west coast of Taiwan and garrison such areas as were defensible. The crew was somewhat nonplussed to discover that Fort Zeelandia and Anping were already occupied by the English. They continued north to Keelung and the old Spanish fortifications there, which had been refurbished by previous Dutch expeditions and named Fort Noort-Hollant. A detachment from the ship landed, occupied the fortifications, and raised the flag; they would receive further reinforcements from Batavia in due course (2). Even after the fall of Anping to Zheng Chenggong and his army, the Dutch had previously maintained a small garrison in Keelung until 1669, when they had abandoned it due to unprofitability and attacks from hostile natives. The VOC hoped that the departure of the Zhengs and their trading monopoly would make the return to Keelung a profitable venture. They would succeed beyond their wildest dreams, though their relations with the local aborigines would be difficult at best and hostile at worst in the short-term. Zheng propaganda had been effective in portraying the Dutch as foreign enemies. Even though the Zhengs were now gone, the Dutch would find few friends in the Keelung area.
The Spanish were the next European power to establish a presence on Taiwan in the wake of the Qing withdrawal. Juan de Vargas y Hurtado, governor-general of the Philippines, had received enough rumors over the past year about the status of Taiwan to warrant sending a ship in early 1685 to see what the situation was. The detachment arrived in time to lay claim to the one remaining extant set of European fortifications that had not already been occupied. This was the old Fort Santo Domingo at Tamsui, which had been originally built by the Spanish more than fifty years ago, before they were evicted by the Dutch and the Dutch were themselves evicted by the Zheng regime (3). The Spanish hurriedly began refurbishing the dilapidated fort, surveying the area, and settling in. Word was sent back to Manila that Taiwan was indeed open, but that there was quite a bit of competition. The return of the Spanish to Tamsui in the spring of 1685 marked the end of the first stage of the Scramble for Taiwan. The English, the Dutch, and the Spanish each had an outpost on the island, and each European power had taken advantage of one of the previously existing sets of fortifications. The second stage would see these three powers attempt to expand their control to other areas of Taiwan. It would also see the arrival of the Portuguese, to add yet another player to the drama. But that story is for another time . . .
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Don't worry if all of the names and places mean nothing to you. I'll post a very, very crude map tomorrow which will hopefully make the visualization of what's going on here at least a bit easier.
Now let's zoom out a bit, because there definitely is a lot going on here. This is the most significant divergence from IRL so far. Our Chinese colonists in the Americas have just been overshadowed in their own timeline! Bummer. Sure, the colonists are more important in the long term, but right now what's happening in Taiwan is much more important geopolitically. The China trade is about to get very weird compared to IRL, and the Taiwan Strait is about to become a very interesting place. Smuggling will skyrocket and there will be all sorts of traffic in Chinese goods - and Western ideas - coming and going across the strait. Piracy will increase. The amount of Chinese products making their way into European hands will increase dramatically, and thus the price for them will drop. In China, the profits from the trade will be much more dispersed than they were historically; small dealers will do much better for themselves. Other knock-on effects – the Dutch trade with Nagasaki will be more profitable due to Dutch access to Taiwanese sugar and deer hides, both valuable commodities in Japan. Will the Spanish de-emphasize the Philippines and reorient resources towards their new outposts in Taiwan? There are now a lot of actors competing for space on a pretty small island. Will the European colonizers fight amongst themselves, or will they be able to peacefully split up the pie? And, of course, the big question: eventually the Qing will realize that abandoning Taiwan was, in fact, a big mistake. By the time they realize it, will it already be too late? There's a lot to think about here . . .
NOTES
1- Reminder that Anping is the old name for the modern city of Tainan.
2- Note that the European presence in Taiwan is totally confined to ports and coastal regions. It doesn't extend into the interior of the island at all.
3- Both the Spanish and the Dutch are making a return to Taiwan, remember.
NEXT – back across the Pacific again to California, where we'll look in on the continued progress and development of the colony. Barring an unexpected burst of productivity, the TL will go quiet until after the New Year. As always, thanks for reading.
