Emperor Joseph I dies in 1701: a different Spanish Succession conflict?

Just an idea I had while reading the other thread about Joseph's son surviving: WI Joseph I himself had died in 1701, leaving his brother Charles as the only heir of the Habsburgs? Would Philip of Anjou be much more easily accepted as the heir of Charles II of Spain, or a war would still happen? And if there is a conflict, would England and Netherlands actually support Charles, now that it would basically resurrect the empire of Charles VI?
 
Just an idea I had while reading the other thread about Joseph's son surviving: WI Joseph I himself had died in 1701, leaving his brother Charles as the only heir of the Habsburgs? Would Philip of Anjou be much more easily accepted as the heir of Charles II of Spain, or a war would still happen? And if there is a conflict, would England and Netherlands actually support Charles, now that it would basically resurrect the empire of Charles VI?

There would likely still be a war considering the War of the Spanish Succession was an attempt to put down Louis XIV a peg or two. Philip would be a more acceptable heir though, so if the Partition Treaties go safely then war could be averted.
 
If Joseph I were to die in 1701, then Emperor Leopold I (he only died in 1705) would only have one possible successor: his second son, Charles VI. That would probably severely weaken Charles' position in Spain as he would be regarded as the one who could resurrect Charles V's Empire since he claims the Spanish throne and will likely inherit the Austrian throne.

No matter how many countries will wish to give Louis XIV a beating, they certainly won't take the risks of resurrecting Charles V's Empire. Philippe d'Anjou is still in a rather high position in the French order of succession, but since he has an older brother, the chances of having him inheriting the French throne would appear rather low (no one could have known there would be an epidemy of smallpox in the French Royal family around 1711-1712). The death of Joseph I in 1701 would probably guarantee Philip V gets the Spanish throne.

That being said, it's possible the allies remain reluctant on giving him the rest of the Spanish Empire... The Spanish Netherlands, Milan, Naples, Sicily and Sardinia are probably gonna be objects of negotiations or of a war.
 
If Joseph I were to die in 1701, then Emperor Leopold I (he only died in 1705) would only have one possible successor: his second son, Charles VI. That would probably severely weaken Charles' position in Spain as he would be regarded as the one who could resurrect Charles V's Empire since he claims the Spanish throne and will likely inherit the Austrian throne.

No matter how many countries will wish to give Louis XIV a beating, they certainly won't take the risks of resurrecting Charles V's Empire. Philippe d'Anjou is still in a rather high position in the French order of succession, but since he has an older brother, the chances of having him inheriting the French throne would appear rather low (no one could have known there would be an epidemy of smallpox in the French Royal family around 1711-1712). The death of Joseph I in 1701 would probably guarantee Philip V gets the Spanish throne.

That being said, it's possible the allies remain reluctant on giving him the rest of the Spanish Empire... The Spanish Netherlands, Milan, Naples, Sicily and Sardinia are probably gonna be objects of negotiations or of a war.

With the Habsburg claim being more dangerous to the balance of power in this scenario I can see either of the Partition treaties made good.
 
With the Habsburg claim being more dangerous to the balance of power in this scenario I can see either of the Partition treaties made good.

Yorel & Savoytruffle I agree: the Spanish inheritance for the Bourbons is dangerous for the balance of power too; so I say it would be a tie, which means that the other European Powers will like some division of the inheritance.
 
Yorel & Savoytruffle I agree: the Spanish inheritance for the Bourbons is dangerous for the balance of power too; so I say it would be a tie, which means that the other European Powers will like some division of the inheritance.

But if the things go as IOTL, with each side refusing to give up the whole inheritance and war still breaking, would England and the Netherlands still get involved? And who would they support?
 
But if the things go as IOTL, with each side refusing to give up the whole inheritance and war still breaking, would England and the Netherlands still get involved? And who would they support?

I can see England and the Netherlands not jumping in right away once the negotiations on the Partition Treaties go awry - yes, Louis XIV's France is the 800-pound gorilla of Europe, but Charles can revive his namesake's empire (and even more, because Charles didn't hold Bohemia and Hungary).
 
In TTL, the war of Spanish Succession would end sooner. In OTL, the treaty of The Hague was signed between the Maritime Powers (England and the Dutch Republic) and Emperor Leopold I on September 7, 1701. This treaty (which ironically contained virtually the same terms as the treaty of Utrecht) recognized Philip V as King of Spain, while the maritime powers retained their commercial rights in Spain. Austria was to receive Milan, Maples, Sicily, Sardinia, and the Spanish Netherlands. If Joseph dies in 1701, then the terms would not be changed.

The war in TTL would have the Allies successfully defending Vienna from invasion, and then driving the French from Italy and the Spanish Netherlands, and finally an invasion of Northern France. There would be no invasions of Spain and the war would focus on France. By 1708, the Allies would control the lands that had been promised to Emperor Charles VI and the maritime powers would begin negotiating with Louis XIV. In TTL, the Whigs and Queen Anne would not feel compelled to continue to fight a war in which they had fulfilled their obligations to Charles.

The peace treaty would be negotiated between France and the maritime powers. Spain and the colonies would be given to Philip. Philip would recognize Charles as ruler of the Spanish Netherlands, Milan, Naples, Sardinia, and Sicily. Philip would grant additional trade concessions to the maritime powers. Charles would recognize Philip as the rightful king of Spain and would allow the Dutch to control fortresses along the French-Southern Netherlands border. Victor Amadeus of Savoy would receive the duchy of Montferrat and some territories in Lombardy for switching sides in this TTL but would not receive Sicily nor be made a king.(in OTL, Great Britain was responsible for Savoy receiving Sicily in 1713). All parties would pledge to recognize the Protestant Succession in Great Britain. In 1708, Philip V was still only fifth in the line of succession for the French throne so there will be no renunciations by him in TTL concerning France. Neither Charles nor Philip will like the treaty but they can’t win the war without their allies.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
War seems inevitable. The previous Partition Treaty is rendered moot with Joseph dead because it envisaged Charles getting Spain which won't happen now. Plus Charles II's will left the entire Spanish empire to Philip so the French are likely to claim the whole thing and given their apparent strong position in 1701 it makes sense for them to try. Britain also had grievances with France that went beyond the Spanish Succession, namely support for the Great Pretender. With William still on the throne any dispute over succession will quickly boil over into all out war. The main difference here is that British support of Austria is contingent upon agreeing to certain war aims, ie Britain will not support an Austrian claim to Spain itself. Getting this out of the way up front will aid in the peace process later on.

I agree with the War Alpha Trion outlined. Without a campaign in Spain the British may be able to reinforce the Netherlands and/or Germany and advance the course of the war relative to OTL. So its possible that things end up much like OTL except Austria also picks up Sicily instead of it going to Savoy. I also think its possible a few more barrier forts are conceded by the French, perhaps Condé (sur-l'Escaut not en-Brie) and Maubeuge or maybe Longwy or Saarlouis. The French offered very generous terms OTL at Gertruydenberg after the Battle of Oudenarde but the allies rejected them because they assumed they had France beaten. A similar position OTL but with different War aims may make the allies more receptive. I agree with the Alpha Trion's points about the rest of the peace settlement.

Considering the post-war period if Austria gets involved in the Turkish-Venetian War in 1714 France and Spain are likely to attempt something. Both France and Spain will be much stronger at that point given that the previous war will have ended sooner and a bellicose Louis XIV still sits on the throne. Such a follow up war would be very interesting. George I has only just arrived in Britain so its unclear what Britain will do, especially if there is a Jacobite uprising to deal with.
 
If the French princes ahead of Philip V in the line of succession to the throne of France still die as in OTL, then Europe would be unified in its opposition to a union between France and Spain. In TTL, Louis XIV would write a will leaving the regency for Louis XV to Philip. Without any renunciations in TTL, Philip would not hesitate to accept it. He would be opposed by the Duke of Orleans but I suspect that Philip’s claim to the regency would be upheld by the Parliament of Paris. Louis XIV might hesitate to start a war before his death if only to ensure an orderly transfer of power to Philip. However, Philip with only at most eight years as regent of France would take advantage of his power to attack Charles.

This rematch of the previous war would have essentially the same combatants. Great Britain and the Dutch Republic would have to oppose Philip in this scenario because they can’t allow him to conquer the possessions Charles gained in the previous war while still being the heir to the French throne. The balance of power dictates that the Maritime Powers ally with Charles and force Philip to renounce his claims to France. In light of Philip’s personality in OTL, he will not renounce his claims to France easily. If the war starts in 1714, I see Philip winning Charles’s possessions in Italy before Austria can end the war with the Ottomans. Marlborough would once again be given command of the Allied forces in the Netherlands, so I could see him preventing the French from taking the Spanish Netherlands. His health could prove to be the pivotal factor in this whole war.

If Marlborough is healthy enough to command, I can see him and Eugene (after the end of the war with the Ottomans) attempting to invade France in 1717 to force Philip into making peace. With both France and Spain stronger than in OTL, I see the French better able to defend their homeland against the two great generals and forcing a stalemate in Northern France while retaining control of Italy. Because of how tenaciously Philip and Charles stuck to their claims in OTL, I’m stumped to how this scenario would end.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I guess the interesting result of this POD is that the War of Spanish Succession is essentially broken into two parts. Act 1 is like OTL's War except shorter. But it leaves everyone with enough strength, regrets and unrealized ambitions to start Act 2 a few years later. And in Act 2 anything could happen.
 
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