Emperor Guangxu restored after the Boxer Rebellion

[robertp6165]

In 1898, the Emperor Guangxu of China attempted to reform China's government, economy, military, and educational system (the 100 Days Reforms). The Dowager Empress, Cixi, engineered a military coup and stripped him of his power, forcing him into isolation. She then rescinded the reforms and forced Guangxu's supporters into exile (those she did not capture and execute, that is).

There was a lot of support among the Western powers for a restoration of Guangxu to the throne. What if Cixi's role in the Boxer Rebellion (1900-1901) had been more fully discovered and she was either exiled or executed after said Rebellion, and Guangxu was restored? Could he have reformed Chinese society enough to prevent the Revolution of 1912? What might his course of action have been?

 

[Tom_B]

Not sure. There are those who feel Guangxu was a bit naive and insensitive and that the Dowager ended up initiating some reforms anyway.

 

[WFHermans]

China would have gone the way of Japan, and there would have been no civil war.

In worldwar 1, China joined Germany and took back the western colonies on the coast of China.

 

[JP_Morgan]

If Ci Xi was exiled, the Revolution probably could be avoided. Guangxu would have to be careful not to antagonize the conservatives though, but he could still keep the reforms instituted, and introduce others at a somewhat slower pace than he did before.

 

[Hendryk]

This is only a suggestion that you can take or leave, but if you want a POD involving Guangxu, a safer bet would be to have Cixi's 1898 coup thwarted. In OTL, the progressives, among them Kang Youwei , had learned of the Dowager Empress's plot, and asked Yuan Shikai to intervene with his modern, Western-equipped army. Yuan, however, switched sides at the last moment and warned Cixi of Guangxu's counter-plot, so that she was able to place the young emperor under house arrest, execute some of his supporters and send the rest into exile. If you have Yuan stick with the progressives as he originally intended to do (perhaps because he's offered a better deal, or simply perhaps he's convinced that there isn't anything to gain by selling out to Cixi), Guangxu's rule will be strengthened by the discredit of the conservative faction (in fact Cixi's failed move will provide a perfect excuse for purging her supporters from the power structure), and the reform movement initiated in 1898 will be able to proceed apace.

Now, if you'd rather stick to a post-Boxer POD, things are more complicated, and I need to give it some thought.

 

[robertp6165]

This is only a suggestion that you can take or leave, but if you want a POD involving Guangxu, a safer bet would be to have Cixi's 1898 coup thwarted. In OTL, the progressives, among them Kang Youwei , had learned of the Dowager Empress's plot, and asked Yuan Shikai to intervene with his modern, Western-equipped army. Yuan, however, switched sides at the last moment and warned Cixi of Guangxu's counter-plot, so that she was able to place the young emperor under house arrest, execute some of his supporters and send the rest into exile. If you have Yuan stick with the progressives as he originally intended to do (perhaps because he's offered a better deal, or simply perhaps he's convinced that there isn't anything to gain by selling out to Cixi), Guangxu's rule will be strengthened by the discredit of the conservative faction (in fact Cixi's failed move will provide a perfect excuse for purging her supporters from the power structure), and the reform movement initiated in 1898 will be able to proceed apace.

Now, if you'd rather stick to a post-Boxer POD, things are more complicated, and I need to give it some thought.

I agree that the failure of Cixi's coup would have been preferable. But there are some who argue that Guangxu was trying to move too fast at that time and that the reforms would have failed anyway. What I was thinking was, if he is restored after the Boxer Rebellion, he might have learned from his previous experience and take things at a bit more measured pace, which might have allowed his reforms to succeed. So I would like to hear your thoughts on the post Boxer POD.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Boxer Protocols

China, no matter who rules it, is going to be a bit screwed by the Boxer Protocols

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Protocol

Of course, OTL they DID manage to get their finances together enough to order the navy some new cruisers, at the point where the stipulation in the treaty against buying new arms from abroad ran out

If he lives, and one must assume that TzuHsi had him killed in 1908 in OTL, so there's no reason why he shouldn't continue to live (he was only 37 at the time of his death), then China will have a more stable dynastic outlook. Even if he does adopt Pu Yi as his successor (and hereditary elements are second IIRC to the last emperor's wishes on succession) he is going to be man by then, and someone who has had a proper education and preparation for rule

So, its really all about Kuanghsu managing to stay in power and achieve something. Yuan Shih-kai is always a dark horse, and given his previous history with this emperor it might be a good idea to have him deleted, although he was one of the best military commanders available, he was one of the most devious political players

Grey Wolf